Yes I agree and I think even nowadays people in the West are entitled to want sun more than us in the S.E. corner. When you live in the driest County we see rain a bit like how you see sun !

15Z UKV sweeps the heat away rapidly, 32C the peak on Saturday. 

Moomin why are you always half glass empty?

As far as I can see after a short interlude of slightly cooler temperatures we are in for a reload of proper summer weather 

Yes, which made for the West Country not being what it is these days (Not last year!). The depressions were fairly frequent and lengthy. 21C was sunbathing time on a Cornish beach and you thought you'd hit lucky. One year we stayed near Padstow (early 70's) and it rained for 13 of the 14 days with a temperature of 14-17C except the last day when it hit 20C and the sun came out. 

There is a remarkable spread of options still for this weekend . Arpege is an eye opener though it's rarely that wrong at short notice. 

MOGREPS 12z absolutely nosedives with the temperature at 850 hpa. And fairly quickly too. 

Yet at 1.5m it looks like staying very warm, this is for London: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps/mogrepstmplondon.png 

Darren would want us all to look at the en Metrogrames these for London

https://media-eu.invisioncic.com/k333824/monthly_2025_06/image.png.754942dda8a1c2d60311548bc6e44ec9.png 

Saturday looks about 31 Sunday average about 33 very warm Saturday night probably tropical 21c

Not that much cloud cover on both days generally a good summer run.

I note 240 12z ecm very promising signs for more usable very warm weather

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

I also note ecm has doubts about the strength of energy sw Iceland shown on the spread

Picked up nicely at 192 I think the opp maybe underplaying it a little which if I’m correct would only strengthen the ridge to the U.K. as seen in the mean.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0 

I note also mean from 12z very promising at 168 with ridge doing its best and pressure high to the east I think this is even more promising as we go forward

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

It seems to have dropped the idea of 30C, never mind a June record. 

I doubt these ensemble data ever showed 30°C, which is almost 100% certain to be exceeded in quite a few locations by the end of the weekend. The outlook remains very warm to hot into the start of next week with the chance of further heat beyond then.

Probably around 7 record breakers in the gfs pack that’s quite high from runs I’ve seen before given on an exam paper one could say around a 30 percentage chance.

Don’t forget we can add a little on I’ve added about 3 for the above which history tells me is roughly the case

London

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0 

Looking rather peachy for the Summer Solstice. I’m riding from Arun to Eastbourne on Sunday so need to pack the SPF50.

Turns a bit stinky from 24th for a few days but never cool and the gales never return as far as the eye can see. 

Longer term - Early July looking potentially hot also. 

MOGREPS-G is currently reporting degraded by the UKM. 

Indeed the first 4  70s summers were poor very cool 1972 .  Aug 74 we had a washout 2 weeks in Boscastle Cornwall 

Warmth aside, it is also looking predominately dry almost across the UK for quite a while. I suspect it won't be long before my beloved lawn start to feel it again after that recent soaking. 

Indeed. I have taken preventative measures and have doused mine in two hours of sprinkler today, as you just know the ban is coming. Looks dry if not very dry for the foreseeable down here. 

Rain mid week next week, then a mid July soaking should put a swift end to that. 

I would find that absolutely awful but thankfully we’re going to the Yorkshire coast for the weekend.  It’s looking considerably cooler and more comfortable there but still warm. 

This weekend GFS and GEM have 32c Saturday and 34c Sunday, Arpege has 34c/35c Saturday.  So the record is in touching distance. 

Later GFS smashes the June record, this sort of extreme scenario keeps appearing will it actually happen.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=303&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

A growing theme this morning is a NW-SE split , basically anywhere south and east of Hull to Exeter is often hot and dry whilst north and west of here is cooler and more unsettled. 

AIFS remains the most unsettled though. 

Great GFS this morning. A very brief ‘cool-down’ if you can call it that early next week, before a rebuild yet again. Sunday / Monday next week look to be the peak again. 

S/SE/E generally favoured at this time. Also worth noting that max temps are changing at short notice. Now has a 31C for tomorrow in the south. 

It due after this weekend but was showing low to mid 30s mid next week.  That a proper flaming June and this chart above is more interesting as it nationwide heatwave than very boring far eastern based suspects. 

It was the case this week we looking at those 30C temps and my first 30C here since Sept 2023 from the recent charts as many was focusing on the break down at NW.  What is about breakdown interests more than interest this coming week hot spell? My interest is this week hot spell then a bit cooler at the weekend then very hot next week. 

Crikey look at that control next weekend many members want to do it all again

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=252&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0