Thank you for your reply, don’t want to take things off subject, I am trying to understand how different members interpret the charts.

It often helps for people like myself if what is being discussed is backed up by the chart they are reading with a link. It really helps to understand what is being interpreted.

anyway, from my limited understanding the outlook is pretty good for the majority of what is left of June. Warm and at times hot conditions for some, sunshine a plenty with the a likelihood  of a cool down and reload to warmer/hotter conditions. I am not complaining after the spring weather most of us had, and now a pretty good start to summer. 

Heat haters like me will be hoping UKMO is right with the early breakdown. Its bad enough already. To think we have another 5 days of this! Yuk

No it's not. The hot spells are longer and hotter and the wet spells are more severe. It's a totally different climate to the one I grew up with and is one of the major reasons wildlife is being wiped out in the UK but people are still in denial.

https://news.sky.com/story/very-hot-30c-days-treble-in-uk-met-office-finds-13183840 

UKMO doesn't look like much of a breakdown to me - Monday looks cooler but by T168 the high pressure is already pushing back in.

GFS 6Z is also quite keen to blow the heat away by Monday (still squeezes out a 35C in the east on Sunday) but will high pressure return?

Absolutely!

Wrt the climate nature is not managing to balance things out - that's the problem. Humanities atmosphere polluting ways are overpowering nature.

I'm in the middle ground - as a weather enthusiast I enjoy the hot and cold extremes, less so the wet and windy ones, but at the same time I am concerned of the impact of climate change on the natural world. Having said that, last summer was wet and had a terrible impact on many insects, especially butterflies, but this year's warm and dry weather has been really beneficial so there are winners!

We are not forecast to have the extreme heat of further east, but it will still be possibly five days of perfect beach weather with more to come later next week.

6Z GFS has a brief cooler interlude and then the heat builds once again, reaching low to mid 30s despite 850s "only" around 14-15C.

It does look like all roads lead to Rome at the moment.

I can't find a site specific forecast on the Met O website over 31C max. But I may have missed a hot spot I don't know of.

Here it's forecast to max out at 23C on Weds - probably the breeze keeping us a bit cooler from then. I can't say I mind if that's the case.

No, you said you looked at one run. I’m not lashing out at you, I’m querying you and pointing out the flaws in your logic. If you can accept constructive criticism then hey ho 

Sorry Matty, I can absolutely accept constructive criticism, and to be honest, especially from people like you, who has been a member of this forum for as long as I have.

Believe it or not, I really respect your views, 100% of the time....I appreciate that you speak your mind and often counter what i say.

As I say, we are all enthusiastic Amateurs really, although I confess I look up to a few more than others, and you are one of them.

You will have surely noticed I don't fly off on one very often, particularly in winter.

You are absolutely spot on to say that anything beyond a few days out is unreliable. 

Indeed so. The frequency at which London reaches 30c or near is rather scary these days. As soon as the sun comes out for a few days in late spring or summer, it seems 30c is a given nowadays. Many of us long for the times where 25c was the base warm-weather value. But that would be cast as "cooler" these days. Summers where there is a binary outcome of either downpours or oppressive heat will be unwelcome to many (including me). 

If the latest model output is correct though, Edinburgh could easily get its hottest day of the year so far on Friday with that possibly being beaten once again on Saturday.

In order for that to happen, the temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank only needs to get above 23.65°C and the Met Office is currently going for a temperature of around 25°C here in Edinburgh on Friday and even up to around 26°C on Saturday.

That highest temperature of the year so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank was set on 30 April 2025 and I would much rather be seeing those highest temperatures of the year occurring now in the actual summer, rather than in April. Because of that, I will look forward to seeing that happen if that ends up being the case on this occasion.

Don't know about that that.

I live in a flat here in NW Edinburgh and even with the temperature only at around 21°C outside, I'm still sweating a bit in here

As you said yourself though, such a temperature here in Edinburgh would actually give us our hottest June day on record (that is easily deduced from the figure which you actually quoted for that in another recent post on here) and although we can never completely rule that out (the beauty of model output comes from the fact that even the most unlikely of outliers have to still be seen as an actual possibility, albeit a very remote one), I can't see that actually happening although you just never know. 

UKMO breaks it down even faster, with even Sunday looking much less hot. Not a good set of runs for heat fans.

Edit: I may have spoken too soon regarding the GEM 🙂

Don't worry.  The heat will be back quite soon. 🙂🙂🙂

In the 1950s and 1960s  25C was a hot day. 30C almost unheard of.  🙂🙂

Summers of the 60s were quite disappointing I believe.

Here it is!

This is what I feared may happen.

Looking at the 850s on the Arpege for Sun morning, Sunday would likely be even hotter, maybe 38? It has an overnight low of 26C in the E Midlands from Saturday into Sunday.

Likewise the UKV would go hotter than the 33C it has for Saturday 

Gfs opp looks isolated control looks hot rebuild 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0 

Many members going against its opp

Mean looks good

P1 goes for 38C and there are several 37s in the mix.