That's so true as I remember the red symbols the BBC used to use (end of 80s, early 90s?) for a temperature of 25c or above seemed to only make rare appearances - nowadays it's almost every week!

Here's a static snapshot so it won't be lost when the GEFS updates. 

Hmm, something's going on there - here's the MC equivalent:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/52/21419/gensfr_17_4_372lcx8.png 

Hot or very hot, yes, but not "off the scale" heat as the TWO version shows. Any idea what's going on there?

EDIT: And the Wetterzentrale rendering has some 39s for "London" and Watford, but not into the 40s. It's closer than the MC version though!

I'm not sure, although the MC one is labelled "Temperature 2m" which suggests they may not be plotting the 2m max temperature variable. I'll try and replicate the download and plot on my development server.

Mmm, that's a good point - MC doesn't provide max and min temperatures on its detailed charts, so I've looked at the "tableaux" version instead. And that comes up with a 39.5 for London, which makes more sense. Looks like it's just a dodgy bit of plotting on the detailed charts, then, and hopefully you read this before spending time on your dev server! 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/57/22593/tablemlu4.php.png 

I've set up an automated job on my development server for validation. However, as you mentioned, it appears more consistent with the table data.

There's something gained from this, anyway: turns out that TWO is the only one of the "big three" that provides the TMax data for the ensemble members, which is worth shouting about! TBH I'm surprised the others don't bother with it... it comes into its own at times like this, when we're playing "spot the massive outlier". (And as I loathe heat, I'm trying *not* to remember that the 2022 record started off in much the same vein!)

That’s how I feel about cold and snow. Why on earth would anyone want that?

personally, the hotter and more humid the better. Bring it on! It’s looking promising. Just waiting to view the afternoon runs 

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I've just seen another forecast models showing 38C and over for East Anglia and the SE. 🙁🙁🙁

Yes. This evening's GFS 12Z.

We're in for a roasting like 3 years ago unless things change suddenly- which can happen.  😞 

Two weeks out?

Is a deep, 985mb, cold low likely on June 27th? No. Is warm, settled weather more likely? More likely, especially in this '1.5C' world. Record breaking heat? I'll ask that question next week.

I don’t think remember ever seeing a 40C modelled for the UK before 2022, but now they seem to crop up quite frequently on the models. 

And a 100F on the GFS op run this evening. 

When I first saw that in 2022 I thought someone was in the wakky baccy. But as we all know it verified. Much to our shock and horror. And I won't forget the fact that it showed 2 weeks in advance. Just like now.  😮 

Hopefully it doesn’t change. Interesting and exciting times 

Its gonna be hot even if we dont reach 40, but the middle east going up in flames is perhaps more concerning for us all in terms of the economy

Another 40C chart. This time from last night's GFS 18Z.

I completely agree, although I appreciate some wouldn’t.  These days mid 20’s are about the limit for me, especially if it comes with humidity but I think it’s an age thing because I used to think the hotter the better.   Hopefully Brian’s suggesting an extended spell of dry, warm weather.  

Thankfully (from my POV) the 0z op is the polar opposite at that time! As an aside it's interesting how many runs we see each summer that bring the 20C 850 isotherm over the UK in one way or another - yesterday's 18z op had 24C 850s, a gnat's whisker away from the record 25C plume in 2022. It wasn't that long ago that the 20C isotherm was a mythical beast in our land...

That 18z run is the hottest I can remember for an Op run in June.

The 0z is less extreme but still hot at times. 

GEM also hot this morning 

GFS Op 00z; current trough steadily moving NE and clear of Scotland by late Sunday. Warm air and HP arrive from SW and dominate Britain until Fri 20th when a move of HP to the east plus LP on the Atlantic create a re-load of the present situation, i.e. a trough from the south with warm/hot and potentially thundery SE-lies for the following weekend. The coming week's weather is then almost identically repeated in the second week with the thundery breakdown scheduled for the 28th

ECM; As GFS to Sat 21st, but the trough is less marked and the following week starts quite differently with trough from Iceland running into Scotland Mon 23rd and cool NW-lies for the rest of Britain

GEM; also  has something of a thundery breakdown on Fri 20th but confined to the south; a toppling ridge of HP crosses Scotland and by Mon 23rd is over the N Sea with LPs approaching from both  Greenland and Biscay

GEFS; In the S warm and wet now, then temps near norm and dry to Thu 19th with good ens agreement. A variety of outcomes from then onwards, most ens members rather warm and dry to Sun 22nd, then mean temps back to norm (control rather cold) and increasing chance of rain (in more runs than yesterday). In the N, rainfall profile similar, but temps never far from norm  and better supported in this with better ens agreement (though op warms towards end of period but control goes cooler),. 

Current rainfall prediction from metO; rain now in W Scotland fading out. New (quite localised) storms arrive into SW England this afternoon and run north through Wales, and a separate batch into SE England this evening, running up the east coast. In both cases some bits and pieces left over as the main two areas unite over mainly C & E Scotland tomorrow, clearing from the NE late in the day

ECM good news for Darren and me! 

Both GFS and ECM are keen to build the heat next week according to the 0Z ensembles. Whether or not things cool off after that point (for a while) is less clear. The GFS Op 0z and 6z keep it hot for a long time after and if anything make it even hotter.