I am looking for a heatwave to beat the 35.6c set in non-global warming year 1976.  We got good ingredients for high temps due to dryer ground so need to get the models to get a grip to allow the build of HP to the Uk fully nationwide instead of so boring N/S set-up and move east a bit to allow high temperatures in a good timely manners with full sunny days, no cloudy heat spikes thanks.  Last time geniune 30C plus here was Sept 2023 so very very well over due to get 30's for the Midlands areas.

FAX; Backs up GFS but does add more of a disturbance in the W-ly flow for S England on Thu 5th

ECM; from Tue 10th places the area of LP mid-Atlantic rather than further north and so offers unsettled weather for the W Coast down to Cornwall while E districts esp E Anglia may become rather warm.

GEFS; staying cool to Tue 10th with good ens agreement, then somewhat warmer but with a big spread of forecasts before ens members come together again ca Mon 16th with mean a little above norm.  A little measurable rain in the S Thu 5th and Sat 7th otherwise bits and pieces in different runs; in Scotland and to some extent in E England small amounts of rain on most days after 7th perhaps something heavier Fri 13th. 

Too right Matty. If we all could think like that the world would be an incredible place unlike where we are today.

The south of England is looking increasingly wet on the GFS models so your prayers could be answered. Latest GEFS ensemble shows a chance of regular rainfall across the whole 16 day period 

Well, wishing for a certain type of weather has no bearing on what we actually get so where is the harm?

On the model front, GFS has a brief waft of rather warm air midmonth, and ECM has a warm-up somewhat earlier. I don't see any extended heatwave on the horizon but I think a brief "hot snap" is looking increasingly likely within the next couple of weeks.

It been very unsettled since before the BH weekend so it already well outstayed it welcome, we don't need more rain and prolonged unsettled weather wasting our valuable long daylight hours.  Just within over 2 weeks for the longest day so will be a big waste if this unwelcome unsettled weather persists.

No rain here for a week - including today. The North Downs did a smashing job of wringing out the clouds, both from the warm front and the cold front which is now moving through.

The models show Thursday as being the next chance for rain, I'm not going to hold my breath based on today's performance. 

Weather forecast was hopeless. Just a useless 0.9mm here and enough wind to dry things out further. As weather forecasting is supposed to be a scientific discipline I am surprised they don't understand that there having only been 6 days of rainfall over 2mm in three months that forecasting a minute rain to fall here would have been of some significance. But no, just rain forecast for all. I expected that - why didn't they? If we'd have had ten days of blizzards then to forecast no blizzard would have been of some use you would have thought - but no, that would count as a non-event and not news worthy.

Indeed, I went down to Dorset and it was far better than forecast, proper warm sunshine almost all weekend. Much better than forecast, even though the model charts looked rather ropey!

12Z GFS shows at least a week of warm and settled weather for just about all of us from mid month. A long way out though...

15 uppers in strong June sunshine we would se  rapid T2 rises

ECM extended (WX) Heat continues southern and se 

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=europe&chart=850temp,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=264&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0 

The BBC's forecasts are poor but they don't use the Met O anymore. However, the Met O haven't done very well with forecasting rainfall amounts either ...

Couldn’t care less, in the same way as snow hunters don’t about the infirm and those that can’t heat their houses

Encouraging signs for heat lovers are a little more “likely” in the current output. Long way to go though 

https://x.com/politics_pr/status/1930094865020232136?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA 

FAX confirms small disturbances crossing England Thu and Sat

ECM; similar to GFS though by Sat 14th the LP appears to be filling and retreating to Iceland rather than moving on to Sweden.

GEFS; temps on the cool side to Tue 10th, and on the warm side from Sat 14th. In between, an explosion of outcomes with ens members from 10C above to 5C below norm (less marked in N) before the bunch gradually pulls back together (more slowly in N). Rain for the south 5th and 8th (definite, but not much) perhaps a bit more around Thu 12th otherwise very little. In the north, small amounts of rain at any time, heaviest in the W and not much in the E.

PS: I'm adding in some new ECM stuff hopefully later today.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?chartname=ecmwfenspreciprate&chartlocation=glastonbury 

Indeed - I was looking at the Met Office web site video ones which are current.

One of the all time classics if correct!