June Historical data

All-time CET Average 14.34c

1991 - 2020 Average  14.64c

Last year June was 14.00c and a rare (these days) colder than average month.

June statistically is the month with the smallest difference between the long-term CET and the most recent Data Set being 1991- 2020 at just 0.3c

All-time warmest

1846    18.20

1676    18.00

1826    17.30

1822    17.10

2023    17.00

All-time Coldest

1675    11.50

1909    11.80

1919    11.80

1972    11.80

1749    11.90

1991 - 2020 Warmest

2018    16.10

2017    16.00

2003    15.90

2005    15.80

2006    15.80

1991 - 2020 Coldest

1991    11.90

2012    13.50

2013    13.60

2011    13.70

1999    13.80

As always,  all predictions to be emailed by midnight on May 31st.

My guess this month is a warmer than average 15.63c

My thoughts as well. 

🙂🙂🙂

Could I go for 15.9C please 

Grandad

Reason being, the modelling for the 8-15 day period has been rather tentative on the matter, with little consistency on the timing or robustness of a pattern shift. In the meantime, conditions look a little on the cool side for the time of year, albeit mainly by day.

The timing of the pattern shift, presuming it comes along, will have a massive bearing on the CET this month. Of course, this is often the case to some extent or other - I've seen many a month go awry relative to my CET estimate due to a pattern shift occurring 5-7 days sooner or later than anticipated.

14.6 to the 1st

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

14.2 to the 2nd

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 91 to 20 average

14.0 to the 3rd

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 91 to 20 average

So it's a very tight spread of predictions in June - we could all easily come a cropper if we get a significantly above average month or, heaven forbid, a below average month.

On a personal note, my thanks for all the lovely thank you's etc. in the predictions emails - it's appreciated.

13.6 to the 4th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 91 to 20 average

13.6 to the 5th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 91 to 20 average

13.5 to the 6th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 91 to 20 average

Most minimums around 7C and barely been above 16C

13.3 to the 7th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

13.1 to the 8th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 91 to 20 average

I reckon we'll be up to 14 within a week and 14.5 in a week and a half.

Hadley

13.2 to the 9th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 91 to 20 average

Still a fair bit of spread in the possible temperatures next week, as high pressure most likely returns but with an uncertain positioning relative to the UK.

Warmer scenarios have been gaining the upper hand over the past 24 hours so I'm starting to feel hopeful for some fine British summer weather. A small risk of heatwave conditions starting later next week depending on how the high moves about.

Further ahead, sub-seasonal ECMWF modelling suggests the polar jet might return southward late in the month & into July, making for a cooler run of weather. Another source of uncertainty regarding the CET. Good luck everyone!

Hadley

13.5 to the 10th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

13.7 to the 11th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 91 to 20 average