Stranger things have happened. Although it does reinforce the possibility of sustaining high pressure over us and the near continent later in summer. 

first we have the June monsoon to deal with, which looks early this year (like the shifting seasons).

potentially very wet in some areas towards the end of next week. 

A real half term wash out. 

MetO rainfall chart has today's main band of rain clearing E-wards, some hanging back in NW Scotland. New area of rain pushes across Ireland this evening, splitting into two areas, N Scotland (heavy) and SE England (not much). Scattered showers before the next area arrives on Tuesday, again the same pattern as it crosses Ireland and splits into two but this time soon dying out in Scotland but becoming persistent and even heavy along the south coast through Wed.

GFS op 0z; A W-ly or SW-ly regime with troughs crossing Britain in agreement with MetO rainfall above. After Wed 28th pressure rises briefly to the SE while LPs continue to brush NW Scotland. Another trough based Scotland 1005mb Sun 1st but affecting all of Britain; then another on Thu 5th. Finally a proper HP Mon 9th 1030mb centred Yorkshire.

ECM: aligns with GFS at first. The trough on Sun 1st is weaker but this model produces a deeper one approaching Ireland Tue 3rd and looking as if it will arrive over Britain a day earlier than Thu 5th

GEFS: mild at first, cool Mon 26th, quite warm for a week  in S, near norm in N,  before mean resumes closer to norm  everywhere as ens members spread out, Rain agreeing with MetO to 28th, after that variable but small amounts in most runs in the S, perhaps augmented Wed 4th, always likely to be heavier in Scotland if and when it happens. 

Dare I say it . . . we do need the rain/dampness. 😂

Certainly the next 6-10 days will see low pressure close to and having some influence over at least part of the UK. Uncertainty over which areas are most affected (good chance the wettest area will move around) 

But there's been a consistent pattern from around +180 to +240 for higher pressure to move in over the UK.

Again (and to be expected), exact positioning of high pressure varies run to run and between models. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=141&chartname=total_precip_uk&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20total 

GFS Op - Mobile W-ly regime, troughs crossing Britain now and Wed 28th, weaker trough Sun 1st (more like a gap between two mobile areas of HP) then less mobile with areas of LP sticking W of Ireland THu 5th and Tue 10th with mild S/SW-lies for Britain. 

ECM (12z at time of posting) - somewhat like GFS but trough Wed 28th shallower, that on Sun 1st deeper with closed circulation 995mb Dorset

GEFS - becoming milder around Sat 31st then a dip but warmer later. In the S, chances of rain highest around Wed 28th and Thu 5th (the latter with a monster spike of 60mm in one run). In the N, small amounts of rain at any time.

Now off to London for the day

Wise because the 7mm we've had here so far in this breakdown isn't exactly drought busting!

GFS Op 00z; W-lies with embedded troughs at first but contrary to above HP establishes 1020mb in the SE Thu 29th and keeps LP away until a final trough moves across Sun1st and HP sets up a block to the east of Britain, with SW-lies for the following week and LP never far from NW Scotland. From Sun 8th HP moves in strongly from the SW and is the dominant force for the following week.

 ECM; like GFS until Sun 1st when the trough persists and by Thu 5th has slack (and cool) LP 1000mb covering all of Britain.

GEFS; Ens members agree on weather becoming warm in the S, scarcely so in N, to Sat 31st then briefly cooler; less agreement but mostly a little above norm for the following week.  Rain grading from a couple of days in the S (Wed 28th and Sun 1st) to daily rainfall in the NW, nowhere very heavy 

GFS Op 00z; A mobile situation in week 1 with SW-lies pushing troughs (mainly affecting the N) and ridges (mainly affecting the S) across Britain. On Tue 3rd a deeper LP 985mb Hebrides which then moves into the N Sea with a repeat on Sat 7th before a ridge of HP sets up from the south to cover all of Britain Wed 11th.

ECM; like GFS though the LP after Tue 3rd moves into mainland Britain rather than the N Sea

GEFS; Rain likely in the S now, Sun 1st and and Fri 6th, never very much, otherwise mostly dry. Temps warm for the coming week, dropping back to norm Sun 1st before rising again steadily (but with a greater spread of ens members). In Scotland, temp profile similar, but rain could occur at any time and could be heavy in the NW.

I'm not really encouraged by either.

I've not really followed the models the past 2/3 days and before that, there were fairly consistent signs that more settled conditions were likely to build back in from around next weekend. 

Looking at the output this morning, any settled set is pushed back further - and looks unstable/prone to being blown away by Atlantic lows anyway.

Disappointing.

GEFS; Rain likely in the S now, Sun 1st and and Fri 6th, 🧊🌨❄ - Wow, cold for June.....

(Ahhh - re-read that now......)

GFS Op 00z; W-ly or SW-ly for a week with troughs affecting (mainly) the north, more settled in the south, until Tue 3rd when a deeper LP 990mb settles over S Scotland and affects the whole of Britain. This soon moves away to the NE; then back to the W-lies for another week to Tue 10th before HP 1025mb appears in the N Sea which combined with a trough off NW Scotland switches winds round to the south. By Fri 13th this airflow is bringing up (?thundery) LPs from Spain.

ECM; similar to GFS

GEFS; warm in S to Sun 1st before dropping back to norm, until then with good ens agreement. After that mean is above norm but increasing spread of ens members, control promising a heat wave however op run holding back. In the north, similar trend but a couple of degrees lower throughout. Very little rain in the far S ; in the N small amounts of rain at any time.

ECM; similar to GFS but suggests continental LP coming up from the S Sun 8th before the HP comes in.

GEM; some variation on GFS; the effect of the LP Tue 3rd is mainly confined to Scotland but that on Fri 6th deeper and further south, 985mb Irish Sea

GEFS; In the S warm for the next few days, back to norm or a little below Sun1st. Then mean temp rises slowly to just above norm by Sat 14th as ens members spread out, mostly near mean but a few hot outliers. Small amounts of rain frequent in w/b Tue 3rd, otherwise mostly dry. In the N, not as warm to start with but temps otherwise similar to the S; modest amounts of rain at any time but drier in far NE.

The theme is, if anything, more unsettled today than on previous days. The rainfall is more evenly distributed and there is less in the way of warm weather - especially after this Saturday. Any longer settled spell is consistently being pushed back to around the 10 day mark.  

Could summer have finished already, now we have seasons shifting dramatically and April-May end up being our June-July period?

As others have noted, the westerly pattern setting in can often get stuck for 12 weeks or more. 

GFS 6z backs away from that and keeps everything unsettled.

High pressure does move in at the end of the run. Far FI of course but there does seem to be a consistent signal for things to settle down as we move into the second week of June.