In the longer term the GEFS is also favouring above average temperatures. If we do get the blowtorch I could imagine some VERY high temperatures resulting.

ECM: like GFS but the 'trough near SW Britain' affects more of S England around Tue 12th before HP resumes as per GFS.

GEM: develops this trough further with a general fall in pressure over Britain continuing to end-of-run Sat 17th at which point it picks up the idea of a deep LP 965mb from yesterday's GFS.

GEFS: soon becoming warmer with a modest peak around Mon 12th, declining a little in the S but warmth maintained in the N, and possibly warmer again from Mon 19th though ens members do not agree on this at the latter date. Small splashes of rain from time to time (showery?), even these minimal in N & E.

Here, I've recorded just 8mm of rain since 1st March. This is an exceptionally dry period.

Interestingly though, grass everywhere is still lush green, perhaps testament to the ground water levels after an extraordinary wet late Autumn and early winter.

ECM more showing rain moving up from the south later on Saturday and through Sunday, with unsettled conditions following. Rain would be more widespread that just the west - but increasingly patchy through Monday. Continuing unsettled through Tuesday on an easterly flow, then becoming more confined  to the SW on Wednesday. Mostly dry Thur/Fri apart from perhaps some showers along the south coast before rain risk increases in the SW quadrant of E&W generally for next weekend.

GFS keeps this weekend rain risk more to the SW and Wales, before more generally in the west on Monday. Mostly dry through the week before rain risk increases in the SW quadrant again for the weekend.

GFS Op 00z: Current HP weakening, stretching towards Norway and by Mon 12th centred there with trough over N France affecting S England, with warmer SE-lies for the rest of Britain. HP centre soon moves back to Scotland and then drifts south to cover Britain 1025mb Sat 17th. LP from the Atlantic tries to move in but eventually only succeeds in moving north towards Iceland bringing in westerlies by Sat 24th.

ECM makes more of the trough over France and S England early next week before resuming the domination of HP as per GFS

GEM is like ECM though it places the trough further west, over W Ireland

ARPEGE last night was bringing in showers fairly widely for the S Coast late Sun into Mon, but this morning's chart only has them affecting S Devon Cornwall & the Channel Islands.

GEFS: becoming warm around Mon 12th and although dropping off a little, staying above norm to Sat 24th with good ens agreement. A few runs have occasional bursts of rain (highest chance towards the SW and around Tue 13th but don't hold your breath, even there).  Overall the picture is dry throughout. 

Surprised to hear that you had such a wet period in the Nov/Dec period. Every month here since Sept has been drier than average. 

Brian mentioned thundery showers above. Noticed when out earlier that slight but distictive creamy pink/purple look near horizon, which can hint at a more volitile period ahead. 

It was actually wettest a month or so earlier - and this has been raised before:

A series of low pressure systems brought very unsettled weather during the last ten days of September 2024, with 150 to 200mm of rain falling in the wettest areas. Several counties in the Midlands recorded their wettest September on record with over three times the 1991- 2020 September average rainfall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2024/2024_07_september_rain.pdf 

And on into November, for example:

https://www.itv.com/news/central/2024-11-24/roads-and-businesses-in-tenbury-wells-flood-as-storm-bert-rises-river-levels 

I grant you, unusual for W Ireland not to be setting the high rainfall totals.

ECM; LP on Mon 12th extends a little further NE-wards but like GFS gives way to HP later in the week. This HP is less persistent and by Mon 19th has begun to track S-wards with a larger depression mid-Atlantic 990mb.

GEM; somewhere between the above two models to start with but on Mon 19th has the HP moving away N-wards with a disturbance approaching from Biscay.

GEFS; temps generally a couple of degrees above norm for the forecast period, even a little warmer on Mon 12th, with good ens agreement until Wed 21st when the ens members begin to spread out. Reasonable chance of some (showery?) rain on Mon 12th especially in the south, also appearing in some runs more generally from Wed 21st and dry in between;  but little rain in the far NE at any time.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map#?model=ukmo-ukv&layer=rainfall-rate&bbox= [[48.03401915864286,-11.381835937500002],[53.85900655610469,3.3837890625000004]]

Optimistic but it would be great if they come true.

ECM: similar to GFS. Pressure over Scotland rebuilds from the Atlantic rather than from Norway on the 13t - a distinction without a difference?

GEFS: temps very gradually dropping back to norm by Mon 26th from a modest peak in the S (4C above on Tue 12th), staying high for longer in Scotland with quite good ens agreement throughout. Small amounts of rain around Mon 12th in S & W, chances of more rain generally from Thu 22nd, otherwise dry.

Indeed , with the dry conditions we'd be pushing 30c with that run easily.