GFS Op 00z: current HP over N Sea moving to Norway for the weekend with S-lies for most (stronger SW-ly for W Scotland) but returning to be centred over Britain Tue 29th 1025mb. Any LPs at some distance - off Iberia, N Iceland, W Russia. HP drifts slowly NW -wards, still the major effect on British weather for 10 days or so until Fri 9th (but possible showers in the SW from the Iberian low, and colder N-lies on the E coast as LP develops in Scandinavia). Then it is far enough away (near Newfoundland) to allow weak but direct N-lies to bring Arctic air southwards generally.

ECM : similar to GFS

GEM; suggests a breakdown as early as Sun 4th with the HP retreating quickly to Greenland and NE-lies beginning to establish across Britain

GEFS: becoming warm or very warm by Thu 1st and dry until then with good ens agreement (the W has a little rain this weekend). Mean temps then drop quickly to norm and stay there to Sun 11th, with quite a spread of ens members developing,  control amongst the cooler ones, some rain in some runs after the 1st  but no particular pattern.

Seem hat off for GEM for picking up this warm spell first place nearly 2 weeks ago.

GFS Op 00z; HP to the SE allowing LP to graze NW Scotland but then moving to cover Britain 1025mb Mon 28th with ridge SE-wards, moving to Scotland Fri 2nd 1030mb keeping LPs in Biscay and Baltic at arm's length. It continues to move NW-wards with the LP over the Baltic closer Mon 5th with weak N-lies. Then a week of slack but mostly high pressure, with a new feature not shown yesterday, namely deep LP SW Iceland Wed 7th 960mb which however fills in situ and has little effect on Britain other than turning winds into the S.

ECM; very much like GFS though the 'slack pressure' is generally on the lower side

GEFS; becoming warm Thu 1st (very warm in S) after which ens members drop down at different rates so that the mean returns to norm Mon 5th and stays there in the middle of a general spread of runs, op and control on the cold side. Small amounts of rain, more in the NW randomly spread in some runs from Sat 3rd, dry until then (apart from some in the W today).

GFS Op 0z; current HP near SE England developing and centred over Britain Tue 29th with ridge to continent, persisting though moving to NW with Biscayan LP trying to influence the SE Thu 1st (only augmenting the S-lies) and then Norwegian LP the NE Sat 3rd (cooler for the E coast). The latter LP wins out and develops 970mb Norwegian Sea Wed 7th first projecting NE-lies across Britain and then generating a trough 985mb Ireland Thu 8thwith gales for all. Final frame is a contest between LP moving S from Iceland and HP moving NE-wards from Atlantic.  The deep LP N of Iceland noted in previous forecasts has been cancelled.

ECM; Similar to GFS but (a) the LP from Biscay Thu 1st is more directed at the SW (b) the LP from Norway develops earlier, moving to Denmark 995mb Wed 7th with NElies arriving a day earlier.

GEFS; very warm in S (9C above norm Sat 3rd), just warm in N (4C above norm) dropping to below norm Tue 6th with good ens agreement (some runs in N quite cold). The mean recovers as the ens members spread out, mean near norm, op on the cool side. Small amounts of rain in some runs , most likely around Sat 3rd and Fri 9th but very little in NE.

Shame not on 30th April to get new hottest record value.  If the chart show Midlands area possible 29C or 30C which last seen a 30C since Sept 2023.  This will possible be the warmest Spring ever and not last year which was a lie. 

GFS Op 0z; HP centred over Britain with ridge to C Europe until Sat 3rd when the HP drifts N-wards and a shallow trough develops over S England & N France. By Tue 6th this has linked with LP S Norway 1000mb bringing in NE-lies for Britain as a whole. This first extends then slowly fills and is gone by Fri 9th but leaving cool/cold air over Britain. Then a new LP from south of Iceland 980mb Sun 11th moves past N Scotland, filling as pressure rises from the south.

ECM overall like GFS but important difference in detail as the HP remains stronger and closer, restricting the trough from Sat 3rd to SW Britain, not the S as a whole; and restricting the LP Tue 6th to a location further east so N-lies only affect the east coast.

GEM treats the trough on Sat 3rd as GFS but then switches to the ECM view keeping N-lies out to the east.

GEFS warm generally but cooling in Scotland from Wed 30th  contrasted with very warm in southeast until Fri 2nd (prolonging the heat wave in the SE by a day compared to yesterday's forecast) with good ens agreement before mean drops to norm Mon 5th gradually in N but quite sharply in S,  and staying there as an ens spread develops, with op and control amongst the cooler members. Small amounts of rain appearing randomly in different runs from Sat 3rd. (more in the SW around the 4th, not much in the far NE)

Would be the earliest 30c ever, 12th May currently holds the record.  Arpege has 28c/29c so it's going to be close.

That is absolutely crazy given that we’ve still got just over a month to go until we even get to the start of the actual meteorological summer.

what’s the betting though that after all of this recent dry, warm and sunny weather which we’ve been getting lately, the actual summer itself then ends up being dull, wet and miserable?

I’ve seen that happen so many times before and that would just be like the thing if that was to happen again.

GFS Op 00z; HP moving to some distance west of Scotland by Sun 4th, Iberian trough close to Cornwall and may affect Channel coasts, LP over Scandinavia not quite close enough to do more than generate wea=k N-lies for E coast. Over the following week the Scandi LP makes repeated attempts to influence British weather, closest on Thu 8th 990mb Orkney with N-lies for all of Britain, before retreating; getting close again on Thu 15th. However the HP remains the major influence especially in the west.

ECM; the HP only moves west as far as W Ireland and remains much more of a dominant feature for Britain though as air has circulated around the 'top' of this HP it will be cooler than of late after the 4th.

GEM; Hp retreats well into the Atlantic as per GFS but maintains a strong ridge to Britain so effect is much like ECM until Thu 8th when deep LP Greenland 975mb suggests that zonal W-lies may be setting up. This model does not support a Scandi LP.

GEFS; warmth lasting to Fri 2nd in S, a day less in N, not as extreme as previously forecast (+7C in S, in N) mean temp dropping to norm over the next 2-3 days (less abrupt than previously in the S, and recovering to mild in the SW) and staying there to end of run Thu 15th  with by that time the usual spread of ens members (op is  rather cool). Minimal amounts of rain at unpredictable intervals in different ens members, higher chance in SW around Mon 5th. 

Very possible, although we seem to be in a sequence of drier and wetter than average periods. Therefore, the drier than average conditions could continue for a good while longer. I think a number of ingredients are in place for high temperatures this summer, but obviously the synoptics will need to fall into place.

Perhaps 2018 version but this time the good drier sunnier set up kicked off much earlier than 2018 so more like 2003 or 1976 set up possible.  Still decent 00z despite getting cooler at the weekend look staying dry perhaps a bit of rain early next week before long big HP move in again.  Apps gone idiot and continue to be idiot with full over cast skies today and yesterday despite was sunny and warmer. Their temps currently well undercooked by 4C. Not sure what model they use. 

Although temps set to fall back over the weekend, it's only to a pleasant 19-21c (here). Settled weather likely to continue through next week, too, for most of England and all of Wales - albeit with temps more average for the time of year, maxing at 16-17c here.

After that, broad model consensus that the high pressure will pull away a bit into the Atlantic, allowing cold air to sink southwards, with weather systems moving south down the North Sea.

The model split is 'how far west does the high pull away?'.

ECM suggests 'not very', meaning the western half of the country (and Ireland) keeps the influence of the high - albeit colder temps - whilst the eastern half becomes unsettled.

GFS shows the high declining further westwards so that the wet weather systems sink down over more of the country.

I'm cheering on ECM at this stage!!

GFS wanted this week to be poor and unsettled while GEM that never back down was correct for pointing this current warm spell nearly 2 weeks ago and know the system of pressures, due to the earth rotation that most LP and HP move east not westward so any westward pressure does not work will have to move east and we get unsettled weather from the West not from the east.

Indeed , the GFS has been useless recently, GEM has done very well . Also AIFS has been good and suggests HP all the way atm. 

It is also going through a period of undershooting temperatures. I don't know why this is. IIRC in 2022 some of its predictions were actually at the top end of the temperature table and it looked as though the issues with it going too low had been resolved. However, that's clearly wasn't the case. 

ECM ; like GFS at first but HP moves back E-wards to dominate Britain Wed 7th from a centre 1030mb SW Approaches before retreating again Sat 10th and only then do N-lies become significant.

GEM; even more in favour of HP -like ECM to Wed 7th but instead of retreating HP then moves to Scotland 1030mb Sat 10th

GEFS; temps drop to a cool 6 or 7C below norm Mon 5th (abruptly in SE, more gradually in NW) and only slowly recover to norm Fri 16th, good ens agreement for week 1 and not bad for week 2. Small chances of rain from Sat 3rd which however increase in amount and frequency towards the 16th though not in all runs. 

Agreed and diurnal temperatures range had been very interesting too, this morning was down to 8.5c and will rise to 25-26C.  I see on the emsembles show sharp drop to near -5C uppers so we could be looking at first air frost follow by cool sunny days instead of warmer ones then back to average for May.  Very dry run perhaps little rain in the next 2 weeks.