I would agree with you and Brian. The last time we had rain here, it was about as little as we've had in the last twenty four hours.

Hardly noticeable in other words.

A couple of days later the soil was as dry looking as it was before. The comment I made elsewhere about how difficult the forecasters find modelling these synoptics still stands. They have been technically correct in that it has 'rained' but not how much they implied was on the way.  Many people won't notice I think because the roads look 'wet'.

Agree, the ground here is now dusty down to summer depths, although here at least the winter aquifers have not seen the streams and ponds dry out as yet, but it may not be as late as June this year, which is when they normally dry out around here. The soil is still damp at depth which should see a flush of spring growth, but once the leaves are on the trees, the moisture will soon be sucked out without more substantial rain. It was a phenomenon of 1976 that rain did occur on each bank holiday, but it between it was hot and dry, and it may well follow this journey again this year. Let’s hope not.

I mean we don’t at all, but anyway….

Still not looking overly wet beyond Good Friday, just not as nice as it has been recently. 

GFS and ECM showing a broadly similar trend this morning with that low staying out to the west of the country then slipping away south by saturday afternoon / evening.

Monday now looking like the 'worst' day down here in the SE?!

GFS Op 00z;  Current trough hanging around  southwest Britain for Friday and Saturday; brief respite then another trough from the Atlantic moving into Britain for BH Monday. Then a general area of HP for W Europe, centred near Scotland at first and  near Brittany later before neatly placed over Britain 1025mb Mon 28th. This is slightly dented by LP running NE-wards not far from Atlantic coasts but haninging on for Britain to end of forecast, 1030mb Cornwall Sat 3rd. During this period Russia is under LP before joing the rest of Europe with fairly high but slack pressure.

ECM; similar to GFS but the trough on BH Monday slides off SE-wards and affects Britain less, the east scarcely at all.

GEM li ke ECM at first but from Thu 24th Britain is hanging on to a narrow ridge of HP between Atlantic and Scandinavian LPs.

GEFS ; mild to start with in the S, otherwise mean is near norm for the next two weeks, well suported by most ens members with relatively few outliers (the control run is a cold one of these). Small amounts of rain at any time, the intermittent peaks suggesting in the form of showers. The SW and Wales are wetter around the 19th and 23rd; the east coast has a few big spikes in a few runs superimposed on the showery background. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z; Current trough in Irish Sea dropping SE-wards to France and filling by Sunday. New shallow trough early next week with 995mb centre off W Ireland following the same track before pressure rises from the north to cover Britain 1025mb Wed 23rd. HP then remains in charge of British weather through to  Sun 4th with the centre moving around, tending to produce SW-lies for N Scotland and E-lies for S England but little sign of rain anywhere. (Centre of HP: 1030-1040mb Wales Sun 27th, Holland Thu 1st, W Ireland Sun 4th). LP coming and going over Spain and N Russia.

ECM; differs from GFS in that HP develops from the SW Wed 23rd as a large but not very deep low grazes Scotland on its way NE-wards. By end of run Mon 28th HP again the dominant influence for Britain, 1030mb SW Approaches.

GEM; somewhere between ECM & GFS

GEM; mean temp near norm through to May, moderately good ens agreement. Rain showing up in fewer runs than yesterday, and in small amounts anyway  (but heavier in the SW  & Wales for the next 3 or 4 days).

ECM; similar to GFS though the LP on Wed fills before it gets across the Irish Sea; and the 'zonal westerlies' are slow to establish and may well cover an area further south.

GEFS; mean temps near norm into May; a larger spread of ens members than yesterday later on wth a suggestion of some milder weather then. A little rain for the south Wed 23rd else very dry there; the N & W may see a little rain in the first week of May otherwise also dry.

GFS Op 00z; current LP English Channel filling and moving away SE-wards; new LP from Atlantic crossing England Tue22nd/Wed 23rd and again filling as it reaches the continent. Then a ridge of HP for Britain aligned N-S with LP not far away on the Atlantic, but the HP holds on and eventually develops a centre 1035mb N England Tue 29th. However this soon moves NW-wards thus introducing N-lies for the E Coast by Thu 1st, LP 995mb Denmark, intensifying and looking rather cold under the influence of LP which takes a second bite 995mb N Sea Tue 6th.

ECM; compared to GFS the LP Tue 22nd dies as it crosses Ireland and never affects E England; and at the end (Wed 30th) there's less indication that the HP will move away NW-wards.

 MetO prefers the GFS view and pushes a band of heavy rain all the way to the E Coast on Tue 22nd, and FAX shows a well developed LP 1005mb in the Channel at that date, but soon filling.

GEM; the 22nd/23rd trough is less well developed but does get to England; the HP later on shows less sign of departing to the NW

GEFS; mean temps near norm to Tue 6th, good ens agreement to Wed 30th, after which op and control are amongst the coldest in the spread. Rain for England Tue 22nd/Wed 23rd, perhaps some more in early May, otherwise mostly dry. For Scotland, a little rain in the W  22nd/23rd, small amounts in some runs from time to time on other dates, almost none in the NE.

We've had hardly any rain here since the 15th and the ground has dried out pretty much to what it was like before then. Plants have put on a growth spurt of foliage, using up the available moisture, including the beech tree in my garden coming partly into leaf, but it has now stopped further development.

There is a small possibility of showers today, but from the GEFS 00z London only Wednesday is showing a worthwhile amount of rain in the reasonably reliable outlook, with not much after that. The dry Spring in the SE continues. 

GFS Op 00z; Shallow trough moving E-wards across Britain with a bit of intensification Wed 23rd (1005mb Irish Sea), pressure rising behind as a N-S ridge with S-lies but this ridge settles as a centre 1025mb France Mon 28th as LP grazes N Scotland. The HP then resumes its N-S orientation, linking to Greenland but positioned further W so colder N-lies affect the E coast Thu 1st. Slack pressure for Britain for the following weekend between large LPs  mid Atlantic and Baltic, before the former spawns a small but intense LP 980mb Tue 6th for the Hebrides. 

ECM ; like GFS to Sat 26th but the ridge of HP does not collapse S-wards to France, instead forming a centre over Britain still in place  Thu 1st May 1030mb N Sea and no cold N-lies. At the same time this model develops a disturbance in Biscay which shows no sign of moving away from there.

GEFS; mean temps near norm with good ens agreement to Mon 28th, after which a spread of outcomes suddenly develops - mean a little milder, control run a marked cold outlier. Rain for England Wed 23rd, cluster of what might be showers Sat 26th with one or two runs indicating heavy falls around Thu 1st and Mon 5th. For Scotland temp profile similar (but here op run also cold); less rain 23rd, more on 26th, never very much in the NE.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=0&time=228&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

GFS Op 00z: current shallow LP crossing England and filling over Belgium tomorrow with rise of pressure behind in the form of a ridge aligned with the east coast. This is less persistent than shown yesterday and sinks into France 1025mb Sun 27th, ushering in a prolonged spell of weather coming from the Atlantic and passing through; ridge of HP 1030mb Cornwall Thu 1st lasting to the weekend , troughs of LP 1005mb Wales Tue 29th, 995mb S Scotland Tue 6th, 1000mb Ireland Thu 8th. In short, changeable, and as usual more unsettled in the north. Less in the way of HP than shown previously. Further afield, pressure stays fairly high over SE Europe throughout.

ECM; looks very different after Sun 27th with the HP then strengthening from the S, restricting any LP on Tue 29th to the Hebrides, and forming a large block of HP covering all of Britain 1030mb Fri 2nd, looking rather warm

GEM; also views the HP differently; the HP strengthens but over the N Sea and then drifts N-wards 1025mb Shetland Fri 2nd allowing a weak trough to approach the SW. (ECM keeps this trough well S in Biscay and GFS doesn't show it)

GEFS; temps rising to a couple of degrees above norm in the S, closer to norm in the N, by Tue 29th with ens members agreeing; mean staying at that level as ens spread develops, control on the cool side at first and op on the warm side later. Rain around Wed 23rd for the S, Sat 26th generally,  Tue 29th mostly for the N. and irregularly in some but not all runs thereafter. Always wettest in SW, least in NE.

GFS Op00z; current trough filling quickly as it moves SE-wards, to be replaced by HP lying N-S through the N Sea, retreating at times to Norway while Atlantic LP threatens the far W of Britain while the east should have warm S-lies. This stalemate breaks up after Sun 4th as the HP moves N-wards and the resulting E-ly across England brings a series of embedded shallow troughs before the HP re-asserts itself and the weather goes back to square one Fri 9th.

ECM; Similar to GFS, though around Sat 3rd the HP is situated a bit further NE with a disturbance over Biscay moving towards Cornwall

GEM; takes a different view to the above from Sat 3rd as the HP moves in the opposite direction, namely to the SW, with ridge to Scotland and continental troughs quite close to SE Britain.

GEFS; in the S, mean temp becomes mild, a couple of degrees above norm through to Sun 4th before dropping back, good ens support for the first week; in the spread after that the op is cold but the control is warm. Perhaps a little rain Sat 26th after which just a very few big falls mainly in the control run and especially in the SW, at irregular intervals. In the N temp profile similar but with better ens support throughout; very small amounts of rain from time to time in different runs (just a bit more in the NW)

Normal for end of April to see temps of 23-25c the max highest per year for the SE, anything above is a bonus.  Look good on the 06z with winds from the south to SE flow then easterly later so won't be a cloud issue and mostly sunny days and gentle rise to low 20's temps, at least no hot cloudy spikes occuring so hope it stay away for 2025.  Plus no sign of killer northern blocking set-up so far this year so hope we escape this and get a 2018 summer pattern lock in unti Autumn.

GEM is the pick of the bunch recently the 12z is another run nudging 30c. Would love to see 30c this early. 

Can be possible with the ground being drier now and nice to see 30C being hit this month, i did not see a 30C here last year so hope to see in May soon as if 30C reached this month it down to the SE to Cambridge areas while Birmingham perhaps at 28C or so.  Birmingham usually 1C cooler than here as I am further east.

7.9mm of rain according to a local PWS in the early hours yesterday. Just enough to keep the foliage coming out slowly and no need for the hosepipe.

GEFS 00z London shows no rain for the next week and not much after that. Good gardening weather (or for any other outdoor activities) - excellent.

We certainly need the rain, only 32mm in the last 2 months. Nothing forecast for at least a week so it'll be another week of daily watering of the plants.

GFS Op 00z: ridge of HP from France to Norway with Britain on its edge with S/SW-lies until Mon 28th when the ridge develops into a centre 1025mb England, expanding and intensifying through to Sun 4th when it begins to move N-wards and decline. At the same time a disturbance from Biscay moves to wards Britain, tentatively at first but developing a definite centre 990mb SW Ireland Fri 9th not however affecting much of Scotland or the east coast.

ECM: as GFS to Mon 28th but the HP then becomes more mobile, to Sweden 1030mb Thu 1st (with trough near Cornwall), then to S Iceland 1025mb Sun 4th (with the trough from Cornwall moving across close to SE England)

GEM: like GFS but the fall in pressure from Sun 4th is associated with an expansion of LP over Scandinavia, not Biscay, and for that reason looks colder

GEFS; becoming warm/very warm around Thu 1st (mean 7C above norm in S) before slowly dropping back to norm Sun 4th; good ens agreement to start with and only a moderate spread later. A splash of rain on Sat 26th, then dry though from Sun 4th a few ens members show isolated big downpours, these not in the NE. A suggestion of more continual but not heavy rain in the far SW in week 2