My reasoning is that I have more chance of being right suggesting it won't be reached than the 1 in 150 chance of picking a specific date.

Google also tells me the last time 30c wasn't reached was 2016 and that 6 other years since 2010 have been below 30c. Time will tell of course.

That's, erm, a unique way of doing it! Not sure that'd have met with approval with my stats teacher at school! 😁

Your Google-fu is also very much wrong. 2016 saw 34.4 in Gravesend, and the last time we didn't get a 30 was in fact 1993. It's overwhelmingly likely, especially given the warming since 1993, that 30 will be reached each year.

https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1875.html 

Yes that Google AI (I assume) is totally wrong. I wrote about it here recently:

"In the 1970s and 80s it wasn't even a given that the milestone [30°C] would be reached, 1972, 1974, 1978, 1980 and 1981 all fell short. However, the last time this happened was in 1993, when the maximum temperature recorded was 29.7°C at East Bergholt, Suffolk."

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/buzz/7461/how-soon-could-the-uk-hit-30c-this-year 

You had a teacher especially for stats?! How very upmarket. 🤣

At least with my way I can still think I'm right up until/if 30c is breached. Hehe!!

Earliest 30C on record were 12th and 14th May in London, 1945 and 1943 respectively, just creeping over the line at 30.0. Several others later in the month from London and the SE, the 1940s and 50s being prominent. https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp

See opening post in 'Current conditions' thread for date records to watch out for later this week.

Big 80s hair coincided with cooler temps. Flatter, more generic/bland hairstyles from around the early 90s onwards helped create the current warming, It's time to bring back big hair. It absorbs vast quantities of C02. 

UKV is showing 31C on Thursday.

Hah, it was actually me being sneaky back in the late 90s!

Rather than take a pure maths A-level, which would have been four modules which increased in difficulty, I took an AS-level in pure maths and one in stats - which only had the first two modules from pure maths and the first two from the full stats A-level. It worked out well, I got the grades I needed to go on to Uni and did it without having to go through the really hard stuff!

It turned out stats was really quite fun, and I enjoyed it much more than pure maths. The teacher for stats was a bit eccentric too, and that helped! And yes, for whatever reason he only taught A-level stats. He was an older chap and I suspect it was his way of partially retiring.

(There was also a mechanics course, but one look at the formula sheet for it - with formulae for things like the amount of energy in a spring - put me right off. I'm glad I didn't put my name down for that one!)

As for the topic in hand, it'll be interesting to see whether the high-res models have modelled it well. There has to be a relatively decent chance of it going later this week...

I'll be happy with 29.9.😀

🤣

I was surprised it took so long to go. 😂

The temperature's been creeping up over the past couple of days: started off at 25 three days ago, was 26 two days ago, 27 yesterday morning and 28 yesterday evening. The text mentions a regional high of 29 and given we have an onshore breeze for much of the day I'd be amazed if we reached 29. There are three things responsible: one, a switch away from an onshore wind later in the day; two, clear skies all day for maximum insolation and three, very low humidity - humid air takes longer to warm up and cool down, so the very low humidity (23%) means faster warming. (In effect the ground acts like a radiator, if the air is humid that radiator effect is less efficient - at least that's my understanding).

These conditions, if they happen, will probably lead to a 30 at Brogdale - it always does well in these situations due to its position to the lee of the Downs.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/may1.jpg 

The GFS, meanwhile, paints a completely different picture. No onshore breeze, cloud building from late morning onwards and a much higher dewpoint - 12 or 13, rather than the 3 that MetO shows. This would be a very warm, stuffy-feeling sort of day, compared to the hot but very dry feeling day from the MetO.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/may1xc.jpg 

It's very unusual to get such massive differences between the models only a day out - it'll be interesting to see which, in any, ends up being correct!

Arpege joins the 30C club tomorrow.