I don't want to see a wash-out either but this is a month which we would traditionally associate with April showers and it would be nice to see a bit of that to at least make our weather a bit more interesting for a while with some decent convection at the same time.

Up until now, I've enjoyed the good weather which we've been seeing but I'm a bit fed up now with this same old pattern of almost constant dry weather which we're seeing for quite a while now which then leads to concerns about possible droughts and water shortages, only for others on this forum to then remind us that the UK will never be like other countries such as Africa in that regard.

I know that the latter part of that is correct and that the members in question are right to point that out, but I'm just fed up with that always being the same outcome and would really like to be seeing something different for a change.

The latest models seem to suggest that we could very well get that change by next weekend but there have also been a number of hints that any transition to more unsettled weather may well just be a mere blip in the end with high pressure very quickly returning after that to bring us right back to where we are just now.

GFS Op 00z; Current large HP staying near N Scotland though to Wed 9th 1030mb, then drifting S-wards and declining Fri 11th 1015mb, rebuilding and persisting over E Europe.. Pressure on Atlantic slowly dropping as weak trough forms across Ireland reaching down to Iberia Wed 16th but not affecting E Britain or NW Europe, This trough fills in and is only seen as a small local LP passing N Scotland  Fri 18th, followed first by a brief ridge of HP then by a large flabby LP occupying the N Sea Wed 23rd.

ECM; similar to GFS but the Atlantic trough pushes across to the E side of Britain on Wed 16th

GEM; closest to ECM

GEFS; mild/very mild to Mon 14th (after a slight dip in the S) with good ens agreement, temps dropping back to norm and staying there with only a modest spread across runs. Small amounts of rain in most ens members from Sun 13th onwards, perhaps something heavier around Thu 17th in the S.

GFS Op 00z; HP drifting S-wards, still dominating Britain to Fri 11th (and E-lies dying away as the week progresses) . That retreats to E Europe as a slow-moving and broad trough comes in from the Atlantic, 995mb Cornwall Tue 15th, reinorced by disturbance from Biscay to 995mb Belgium Thu 17th with NE-lies for all. Some rather cold N-lies but probably dry for the Easter weekend (esp Sun 20th) as this trough is displaced by a transient ridge of HP, this in turn giving way to a broad but shallow trough from the north Thu 24th.

ECM; agrees with GFS with minor differences in timing

GEFS; from Fri 11th dropping away from a mild peak (ca 7C above norm) to mean temp about norm Tue 15th as the usual ens member variation sets in (op & control on the cool side, variation greater in the N). Rain from Sun 13th, quite heavy for 4 or 5 days ad most persistent in S &W, then smaller amounts through to 24th.

Yes it's been a stunning spell reminiscent of the Covid Spring in 2020. It does look like ending over the weekend though sadly. 

Could be some very heavy showers around, those complaining about the dry ground now might be complaining about flash flooding next week

GFS Op 0z; HP drifting S-wards from Faeroes, losing its identity when it reaches S England Sat 12th. A broad and shallow trough then moves in rom the Atlantic, affecting mainly W Britain at first, but developing a closed circulation LP 995mb Cornwall Thu 17th. This slowly drifts NE-wards, trailing shallow LP behind, until Mon 21st when HP comes in from the west to Scotland, again not lasting as a disturbance moves up from Biscay and with reinforcement from Iceland settles as LP 995mb Western Isles Fri 25th with generally cool and unsettled conditions away from the SE. In week 1 HP in E Europe, moving to C Med in week 2.

ECM; Like GFS but the LP Thu 17th has more input from the NW than from Biscay (so cooler?).

GEM: like ECM but more so -  also favours the NW-ly influence to the extent of developing a significant LP 990mb E Scotland Fri 18th with cold N-lies behind as it pulls away E-wards.

GEFS; mild temps reaching peak Sun 13th before dropping back to norm with general ens agreement through to Sun 20th. A wide spread of ens members then develops, but there is a significant cluster of milder conditions to Fri 25th.Some rain from Sun 13th onwards, likely to be heaviest around Thu 17th, less after that but never going away entirely.

GEFS; 

GFS Op 00z - current HP moving S and then fading into C Europe by Sun 13th while shallow trough slowly moves in from the NW to cover Britain 1000mb Wed 16th (typical set-up for April showers). The southern end of this trough deepens and gets to the SW approaches 985mb Sat 19th (not really affecting E Britain). This stays around, filling,  while pressure rises as a broad ridge from Scotland to Germany, until Wed 23rd  with SE-lies for most of Britain. This collapses by Sat 26th with LP 990mb Denmark introducing cold N-lies for the E coast. 

ECM similar to GFS; the trough on Sat 19th however is a little further east and affecting more of Britain.

GEM - similar to GFS

GEFS - becoming cooler Sun 13th with some rain then and later rather more around Wed 16th. From Fri 18th most runs agree on small amounts of rain but generate a very wide spread of temps (+/-7C from norm) through to Sat 26th (op and control mild in SE,  op but not control mild in the N,  control but not op mild in the SW, but mean everywhere near norm)

GEFS 00z London now showing a small rain spike overnight Saturday/Sunday, and it's impressive how far in advance this end of the dry period has been forecast. But the amount of rainfall looks small, and there won't be more until towards the end of next week.

The beech tree in my garden has made no progress in coming into leaf since I started this rainwatch on 29th March, and I reckon it will take more rain than is shown in the reliable to get it to come out fully. The hosepipe has only been used to fill up the water butt, but I've had to use the watering can a good deal on cuttings and recent transplants.

 I'll be glad to see the end of the persistent E or NE wind off the North Sea that's been blowing this month in this corner of the country. On the days when there has been cloud cover it's been perishing cold all day, and even on sunny days by the time it got towards sunset the temperature has been finger-numbingly cold. At least the MO shows that changing over the weekend, thank goodness.

GFS Op 00z; current HP drifting SE while LP moves towards N Scotland, 995mb St Kilda Wed 16th, projecting a shallow trough S-wards over Britain. The parent LP fills and a new centre develops in the trough 995mb Cornwall Fri 18th, not really affecting E coasts. Pressure rises to the north for a while - a ridge from Scotland to N Germany with E-lies for Britain - while the LP drops S-wards to Biscay before returning and eventually forming a flabby area of shallow LP or all of Britain 1000mb Thu 24th. Pressure then gradually rises from the SW.

ECM ; similar to GFS but the LP near Cornwall stays around rather than visiting Biscay for a few days.

GEFS; temps drop to norm Sun 13th and remain there with good ens agreement to Sat 19th. Mean temp then stays near norm with most ens members clustered around it, any outliers on the warm side earlier, on the cool side later. A splash of rain Sat 13th, more general rain in most runs irregularly from Wed 16th.

GFS Op 00z; Current HP moving SE and losing its identity as trough arrives from the NW, 990mb Hebrides Tue 15th and extending well S-wards, staying around NW Britain but filling a little (may not affect SE much) until Sun 20th when twin centres develop each 990mb Orkney and Brittany. These rotate counter clockwise around each other as they fil; by Thu 24th remnants are over Biscay and Belarus which HP extends from Greenland 1040mb to Scotland 1030mb. This HP drifts S-wards to cover Britain and N Sea Mon 28th.

ECM differs from GFS after Fri 18th as the trough moves E-wards, and by Sun 20th instead of lying N-S across Britain it is positioned N-S across Norway and Denmark, and much narrower.

GEM closer to GFS, in particular emphasises development of trough near Cornwall Sat19th which then moves slowly N across Britain and not to Scandinavia

GEFS temps soon dropping to norm and mean staying there while ens agreement breaks up after Sun 20th to give a very wide spread with op and control taking turns as cold outliers (8c below norm) from Wed 23rd. Rain less focused than shown yesterday but present in many runs on many days from tomorrow 13th onwards; small amounts in the SE, heavier in N & W around 19th.

I notice on the app kept attempting to put single high digit temps kept being push back as it originally tried to get this weekend before so hope any cold weather get cancelled for good instead of push backs which at risk will come off and we in danger of prolong cold dull wet weather.

GFS Op 00z; LP currently S of Iceland gradually drifting east and filling, to Norway by Sun 20th, but maintaining a trough S-wards over Britain throughout, at its greatest extent on Wed 16th. New LP Mon 21st in SW approaches and after tour of Biscay moves NE-wards across SE England Thu 24th. This fills as it reaches northern N Sea and is followed by a spell of variable weather from the west.

ECM; this week's  trough dies away by Fri 18th but is replaced by short-lived areas of LP Sat 19th 1005mb N France, 995mb SW Ireland Tue 22nd, both of these with influence over Britain as a whole.

GEM; follows GFS at first but from Fri 19th the trough persists over the Channel for the Easter weekend, moving to Norway Mon 21st with strong N-lies for the east coast

GEFS; temps down and up ither side of norm (less variable in N) for this week with ens members supporting the mean; then through to Tue 29th with mean fractionally below norm in the middle of a widening spread of outcomes. Rain in most runs at many times, most likely 15th/16th and 19th, mostly small amounts but the odd downpour here and there esp in S.

The only trace of rain from overnight here are hints of dampness on impermeable surfaces such as a plastic sheet on the ground. Looking at the soil and concrete paths you wouldn't know it had rained at all. Two local PWSs recorded zero precip.

GEFS 00z London shows a rain spike of up to 15mm on Tuesday. It'll be interesting to see what we get.

Monday night, tues morning should see something, but Good Friday looks very wet, showing up consistently

GFS Op 00z; A poorly-defined trough extending from the north and covering most of Britain for this week with pressure usually lowest in the north, eventually drifting to the east Sun 20th only to be replaced by new Atlantic LP 1000mb SW Ireland Tue 22nd. This LP sliding SE-wards dragging a trough across SE England  before a ridge of HP from the SW forms across Britain Fri 25th and persist to end of forecast.

ECM; the initial trough deepens across the SW Sat 19th before switching the focus back to the north. No new Atlantic LP but pressure drops to the SW and into Biscay Tue 22nd formed from remnants of the previous week's trough. HP forming from the north and sooner than GFS, 1035mb Faeroes Wed 23rd.

GEFS; In the S temps up and down until 22nd then mean consistently a little below norm as ens members spread out on either side. Rain most likely 15th, 19th and 22nd , drying up later. In the N, temps more consistently near norm but ens member spread starts earlier. and rain, while showing similar peaks doesn't really dry up between them. Also drier later.

These reviews will be suspended for a couple of days for repairs/replacement of my laptop; expect only one-liners from my smartphone

Rained steadily overnight since midnight coming to a total of about 11mm. Just what we needed - not too heavy that would cause problems with run-off. GEFS 00z London shows practically dry until Saturday with a repeat of what we've just had, which is less wet than was shown a couple of days ago for the Easter weekend.