Sorry, was responding to Jiries.

It's certainly getting dry on the ground around here, however below ground and in the rivers is a different story.

After only 9mm of rain in March the river Lambourn still has a flood alert active for groundwater flooding.

Most of the aquifers, which are close to or over 120m deep, are within a metre or two at most (one is only 40cm) from their record highs. The river Lambourn itself is still about a foot above what I would consider a normal height for wading whilst fishing.

Some nice light but steady rain would be good for garden here, but a soaking wouldn't be great... beggars and all that though, I know.

GFS Op 00z; Hp hanging on around the northern N Sea to Fri 11th with edge effects, early on in SW Britain as LP in Biscay so perhaps unsettled in far SW, later weak N-lies affecting N Sea coast. From then HP collapses and Sun 13th small LP 990mb SW Approaches but linking to and  drawing in cold NE-lies from major Arctic LP 980mb Finland. This small LP moves down to S France Thu 17th but leaves a slack LP in place with cold air for Britain.

ECM; similar to GFS though HP centred further W to Thu 10th so pulling in colder air down the N Sea, but not dramatic as far as charts go i.e. to Thu 10th.

GEFS; temps remaining above norm (well above at first) throughout an increasing number of of colder ens members from Fri 11th though not as many as shown yesterday. Less consistently above norm for east coast. Dry until 11th, then small amounts of rain in some runs.

looks mostly dry for the south for the forseable.  Yes, dig below the hard ground and its still quite damp.  I wonder if we can beat the April record for sunshine and lack of rainfall

Bewl Water, the largest reservoir n the south, was close to average at end of March and the local groundwater in Sussex is slightly above norm. It looks as if rain in December and January came at the most effective time for topping up soil moisture as it wasn't intercepted by growing vegetation,

GFS Op 0z; HP dominating British weather and other countries around the N Sea, moving first a little to the N  (Fri 4th, with LP Biscay affecting SW) then back S-wards again (1030mb covering Britain Wed 9th with mild S-lies) before fading away to the SW Sat 12th as weak E-lies set in, only to revive with a strong ridge 1030mb across Scotland Thu 17th. Although there s an easterly cast to the weather in week 2, the  much colder weather over the E Baltic does not spread as far west as shown yesterday.

ECM; as GFS

GEM; also similar, more tendency for unsettles weather in the SW

All three models have the 850hPa boundary (taken as the edge of the cold weather) running through Sweden and a long way S-wards, so cold air isn't that far away.

GEFS;  mild (very mild at first) with good ens agreement through to Sun 13th when ens members become divided between mild and cold (op very cold in S, not matching the 00z) and mean descends to norm. A little rain in some runs for 13th onwards.

GFS Op 0z; Hp to start with in northern N Sea but allowing LP in Biscay to affect SW Britain (MetO rainfall forecast last night showed some very heavy rain for Devon); from Wed 9th moving W -wards with light NE-ly or N-ly flow down the N Sea and occasional approaches again from Biscay but neither much affecting the dominance of HP. On Tue 15th HP collapses for a few days while LP 985mb runs from the NW into the N Sea with colder weather, but the HP revives (the LP continues S-wards to Italy) and brings back warmth and dryness from the SW forming a strong ridge to Norway Sat 19th with E-lies for most of Britain.

ECM; like GFS to Wed 9th when a much more definite retreat of HP to the SW allows firstly a W-ly zonal flow and on Sat 12th a trough in this flow suggests unsettled weather for Britain esp the north (980mb Shetland to 990mb N Ireland and a weak trough extending all the way south to Spain)

GEFS;  very mild at first, declining slowly with quite good ens agreement to Sat 12th, when a big spread develops 5 or 6C either side of norm (op low, control high, mean near norm) . Rain possible from 13th, more likely from Thu 17th.

GEFS 00z London showing no rain for nearly a fortnight, and not much even then.

I was walking on the Sevenoaks (Greensand) Ridge on Tuesday and none of the trees were showing any hint of coming into leaf and the ground was bone dry.

According to a story in the Telegraph yesterday the MetO have issued an amber wildfire alert for most of England:

"Londoners have been urged not to have barbecues because warm and dry conditions risk starting wildfires.

The Met Office put most of England, including the capital, under an amber wildfire alert that will extend into Northern Ireland and southern Scotland on Wednesday.

...

This morning, firefighters continued battling a wildfire that broke out in the Kilpatrick Hills near Glasgow on Tuesday."

"The Met Office does not have an official public warning service for wildfire risk, but contributes to a “daily hazard assessment”, a product of the Natural Hazards Partnership which brings together expertise from several government bodies."

Full text at (paywall):  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/01/the-joys-of-spring-march-was-sunniest-on-record-in-england/ 

Wildfires are not unusual in a dry March, as new growth hasn't superseded the dried-off plant remains from last year. I remembe back in the late 70s much of Leith Hill (S of London, highest point in the SE) was burnt with orienteering events having to be rescheduled.

Back in the present, Dorset fire services have been tackling three heath fires around Poole in the last few days - yesterday's rain for the SW was very welcome there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2d1nw4gwo  [article says two but mentions three!]

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/25061737.canford-heath-fire-watch-drone-footage-blaze/    [video]

The steady rain unforecast as it was, was more than welcome.

GFS op 00z; HP currently near S Iceland drifting back S-wards and centred over Britain 1035mb Thu 10th before fading with some colder air drifting in from the NE at first; then on Sun 13th a weak trough approaches Ireland from the W and hangs around moving slowly to be situated over Britain 1000mb Thu 17th. That is displaced by a new HP cell from the Azores coming up close to the SW 1035mb Sun 20th. The trough is more diffuse than the LP shown at that time in yesterday's charts - April showers?

ECM; similar to GFS to Thu 10th but then the Atlantic fires up with a much deeper LP 975mb Rockall threatening NW Scotland Sun 13th.

GEM; also similar to GFS but the breakdown around Sun 13th originates from an area of LP which has been lurking in Biscay and moves N-wards. 

GEFS; very mild at first, decreasing to norm with good ens agreement to Sun 13th, when the usual spread develops, op and control on the cool side, and rain in small amounts in an increasing number of runs as time goes by. Much the same everywhere across Britain.

Yes, the breakdown is now in sight, problem is it could breakdown into a long period of unstable lows and heavy showers. Such is the recent patterns of our climate

Of course it would break down by mid-month, that's The Bank Holiday Curse. 😁

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_240_49.png 

The next week (barring today in parts of the west/SW) continues to look settled, completely dry and largely sunny. A lovely spell of weather.

Has been extraordinarly dry since September, and it looks as if this trend will continue for a while yet. 

Presumably you mean in your neck of the woods? In Great Britain many parts of the south had a wet to very wet autumn and a near average winter for rainfall. Admittedly northern areas, particularly Northern England and Southern Scotland have been dry to very dry overall since early September. 

GFS Op 00z; HP dominating Britain for this week, but from a position mostly to the N or W so cool for the E coast with winds from between N & E. The HP then declines and drifts E-wards to Poland allowing a trough to approach NW Scotland Tue 15th but not (unlike previous charts) making much impression further south. The trough deepens as it moves to Norway and a new HP 1030mb SW Ireland Mon 21st reinforces a spell of NW-ly winds, cooler but still dry.

ECM; similar to GFS. HP in week 1 perhaps a little further east so better for the east coast; the trough in week 2 extending more to the south and possibly more unsettled in the west.

GEFS; mild now, near norm around Wed 9th, milder again Sat 12th all with good ens agreement. Cooler but with mean still near norm through to Mon 21st but ens spread 8 or 9C either side by then. Very small amounts of rain (more in N & W Scotland) but in many runs from 12th, dry until then. 

GFS Op 00z; current HP staying between Scotland an Iceland at first (perhaps sited so as to generate less of an E-ly for the the east coast than implied yesterday) but drifting south with lower central pressure, to 1025mb S Scotland Fri 11th. Then LP which has been lurking in Biscay joins with Lp from N Atlantic evolving slowly but resulting in a main LP 990mb SW Iceland projecting S-wards to a secondary centre 995mb Irish Sea Wed 16th. Then a week with a generally W-ly cast to the weather as LP near Greenland and HP Azores compete for dominance. By Tue 22nd the LP wins out, 970mb S of Iceland.

ECM; like GFS though the trough from 11th to 16th makes less progress SE-wards, and Tue 15th pressure is still quite high for SE England.

GEFS; staying mild to Sun 13th (a slight dip around the 9th in the S) and dry, all with good ens agreement. Mean temp then declines to norm by Tue 22nd as individual runs spread out but most stay with the mean; fewer significant outliers than yesterday, Some rain in many ens members from 13th, if anything heaviest at first and in the west.

enjoy the sunshine and warmth while it lasts

Yes and wouldn't be surprised if it lasted the rest of the month and possibly into May also.

Yes, the models starting to look decisively more unsettled in the mid-range. That said, there's been a few times since about early February that a breakdown has either been pushed back or watered down.

That said, I think a few places could do with a bit of rain now. Hopefully it won't result in a washout though, and hopefully more just a convective, showery type pattern.