We badly needed this year to recover severely low supply of sunshine levels as despite recent sunny days is still very far to get back to normal levels.  Less rain and moisture give way to reduced clouds amount.  Would like see a return to sunny spells to periods days among wall to wall sun days than full on overcast days and clear nights that we suffer in last few years now like today unforecast rain and all day gloom.  Those nice charts we need more of this rest of this year. 

GFS Op 00z; alternating HP and LP for a while, the LP more prominent than shown yesterday; HP 1025mb today - LP 985mb Shetland Fri 28th - HP 1025mb England Mon 31st - LP as an extended trough from Greenland to 985mb Hebrides Thu 3rd - HP recovering 1030mb England Mon 7th. This last persists and intensifies through to Fri 11th. The termination in an Arctic plunge shown yesterday has been cancelled.

ECM ; maintains the HP over Britain as a whole after Mon 31st through to Sat 5th, with the trough from Greenland being directed SE-wards to fill up on its way to Biscay, the HP/LP combination giving warm S-lies for Britain

GEM; like ECM

GEFS - a dip in temp with a little rain Fri 29th (28th and heavy in NW), then continuously mild or very mild from Mon 31st, though the op is one of only a few runs dipping around Thu 3rd as above; otherwise moderately good ens agreement. In the S & E, very small amounts of rain appear in a minority of runs from Thu 3rd, rather more likely in the SW but heavy and persistent in the NW

It's been very decent around here recently. The trails around the Chilterns are surprisingly dry for the time of the year.

Either we get away with it from SSW or SSW favouring our side to give us 2018 repeat, don't like the 2019 to 2024 cloudy heat spikes. Looking decent to mid teens next week at least that normal for end of March warmth levels.  If this was in July we would be lookng at several days of low 30's and sunny weather, 90's style set-up.

GFS Op 00z; LPs tomorrow and Sunday running past N/NE Scotland to N Sea/ Norway but HP always a dominant influence in the SW, and over the next week intensifying and moving NE to mid-Norway 1035mb Wed 2nd with ridge trailing back across Britain. staying there for a week but S/SW England with E-lies and a possibility of unsettled weather in the SW as LP stays around Biscay. From  Wed 9th the HP moves W-wards across Scotland to mid-Atlantic 1035mb, with Arctic LP bringing a N-ly plunge to the E Baltic.

ECM ; as GFS to Wed 2nd but the HP then moves back smartly W-wards to form a ridge Iceland-Britain menaced by LPs to E & W by Sat 5th

GEM; somewhere between GFS and ECM with the HP Wed 2nd stopping over Britain with some cool N-lies for the east coast until the HP intensifies in place

GEFS ; a little rain with short-lived dip in temps Sat/Sun 28th/29th, then consistently 4 or 5C above norm and dry to Mon 7th. Mean continues above norm but the spread of ens members increases. In most places from the 7th small amounts of rain appear in some runs esp the op  but the far NW likely to be wet at times.

Very little sign of the SSW impacting the models at the moment with very little sign of Northern blocking, looking like a continuation of the warm and dry theme. Another failure for the SSW theorists perhaps.

Yep. I pivot to 'summer mode' roundabout now. Snow in April is rubbish anyway.

Yes, I've never been a fan of cold springs, particularly April onwards. The only time I can forgive cold in April is if it's an April 2021-type situation: lots of calm, dry and very sunny weather. That is probably the only cold April I've ever enjoyed.

I'd much rather have an April 2011 re-run though. 😎

GFS Op 0z; A couple of LPs today and Sunday sliding past NE Scotland and on to Denmark after which pressure rises from the SW to sit in the N Sea 1030mb to Sat 6th with mild, even warm, S-lies for Britain. The HP then moves N-wards and flattens out near Britain, but intensifies over Greenland 1065 mb Wed 9th, allowing a trough to develop over Biscay and eventually lie Cornwall-Norway 990mb Fri 11th (This doesn't resemble yesterday's output!) Some rather cold NE-lies for Scotland and the E Coast over that weekend before HP begins to return from the SW.

ECM; like GFS to Thu 3rd but the HP then shifts NW-wards a couple of days earlier than GFS predicts, and by Sat/Sun 5th/6th is far enough away (S of Iceland) to allow cold and strong NE-lies to be a feature for S England.

GEM; more like ECM but the HP doesn't get so far NW and the SE is spared the NE-ly blast

GEFS; not consistent with GFS Op in the latter stages. A dip in temp today/tomorrow with some rain mainly in the N. Then dry and mild/warm in all ens members to about Sat 6th after which the mean declines towards norm as an increasing number of members, though not the op or control which stay above norm, move to the cold or very cold side (snow row 2/33 for S coast Fri 11th, one or two perturbations suggesting 15C  -fifteen C - below norm). Dry in most places at most times, some measurable rain appearing in the west later

GFS Op 00z;  small depression running past N Scotland tomorrow (Sun) trailing a weak front across Britain which may give rise to some cloud trapped under the subsequent HP (FAX). However Hp grows from the SW and is centred 1030mb N Sea Wed 2nd. This converts to a broad area of HP Norway - Italy lasting to Wed 9th with occasional weak troughs nibbling at Ireland e.g. Mon 7th. After  weakening for a day or so, a fresh charge of HP arrives from the SW and by Fri 7th a new broad area from Norway to Azores covers Britain 1030mb (fresh SW-lies in N) retreating W-wards with time but still present for Britain Mon 14th. The extended trough shown yesterday has been cancelled.

ECM; similar to GFS but troughs stay out on the Atlantic away from Ireland; a development of a cold LP over Belarus 995mb Mon 7th is probably too far away to generate any N-lies over the N Sea 

GEFS; mean temps above norm for the whole forecast period to Mon 14th, reaching a max of ca. 8C above norm Mon 7th, and good ens agreement to this point. Later a 4 or 5 ens members of 33 have much colder outcomes (more in N); the same runs have a little rain at that time (more in W) but otherwise dry.

The cold front which passed over here yesterday morning brought barely enough rain to wet the pavements.  GEFS 00z London shows practically no rain for the next 10 days and not much after that.

The wet/dry all-or-nothing pattern seems to be establishing itself again.  I'm on a heavy clay soil which holds water well, but I guess that sandy soils will be worse off and heading towards an agricultural drought. Judging by the beech tree in my garden, many trees will be delayed from coming into leaf by the lack of rain, no matter how warm and sunny it is. I think it's less a case of whether I will be running out the hosepipe for the shallow-rooted plants and more a case of when to do it

It's something I've noticed for many years, at least twenty perhaps more. A high pressure cell becomes established over Southern Britain with a long dry spell at this time of year. Not every year but more often than not. And easterly winds become quite common too. 

Then we get to May and the west coast of Scotland has great weather if you like it dry and sunny. A good time for a holiday there before the wet and west coast midges set in for the duration of the summer. Again not every year of course.

According to the Met Office by the time we get to Thursday/Friday this coming week the wind will be from a more NE angle which here at this time of year often means warm/warmish if the winds remain light. Not so good for east or NE facing coasts of course.

After that who knows how the rest of this spring and summer will pan out? Whatever I'm watering plant pots for now.

I assume i am on clay soil. Its looks bone dry on the surface but I dug in a bit with small spade and its still quite damp only a foot deep.  I assume still enough for things to grow for the time being

GFS Op 0z; After today's LP departs NE Scotland, HP building from the SW and becoming centred S Norway until Wed 9th; occasional Atlantic troughs diving SE towards Iberia so E-lies for S Britain (may keep any frost off the apple blossom). The HP then moves NW-wards and a deep LP moves from the N into W Russia/E Baltic with accompanying cold air, some of which spreads to Britain around Sun 13th before HP revives from the SW Tue 15th.

ECM; similar to GFS but the HP remains strong 1035mb Wed 9th at which time some very warm air from the south and the 'cold LP' stays well to the east.

GEFS; Warm (about 8C above norm at peak) and dry in all ens members until Wed 9th; mean then declines to norm by Tue 14th (although most runs above norm the mean is dragged down by a few very cold outliers). A little rain appearing in some runs after Fri 11th. 

GFS Op 00z; weather for NW Europe dominated by HP typically 1035mb near either Scotland or Norway until Fri 11th, importing warm air for Britain et al while colder Arctic conditions move down across Finland and Russia. After this, the HP departs for mid-Atlantic and LP moves from the E Baltic S-wards through C Europe with cold weather for the continent; Britain on the fringes with weak NE-lies but certainly a lot colder than before.

ECM; like GFS but the last chart in series (Wed 9th) suggesting that the HP may topple SE-wards rather than move to Greenland and so prolong the fine spell (on Wed 9th ECM 1040mb Forth, GFS 1035mb Iceland)

GEFS; mild or very mild for all ens members to Sun 6th, when a significant subset (esp in SE) drops to 5C below norm, leaving the majority 5C above. Another group of runs goes over to the cold side Sat 12th, bringing the mean temp down to norm. Mostly very dry; small amounts of rain in a few runs after Sat 12th (more in Scotland).