Wasn't it just! When I went out early there was frost on the grass in my shaded north-facing garden; by lunchtime it was decidedly warm in the sun. My squelchy wet garden from the winter rain has dried out enough for the soil to start to get workable, though some recent transplants and cuttings have required spot watering.

There's not a lot of rain in the the forseeable, so we seem to have made the transition between the two seasons that apply nowadays down here - wet and dry. Maybe I'll be getting the hosepipe working in a few weeks' time. 

I wouldn't dust it off just yet - ECM/GFS showing a band of rain is set to arrive tomorrow night then staying a little messy/unsettled over the weekend.

They both then diverge next week with ECM trying to establish weak HP cells whilst the GFS plops the jet over us and starts the LP conveyor.

I'm hoping the ECM verifies.

I see RAF Lakenheath has recorded 20c, who'd have thought!

21.3C reached today in Northolt and Chertsey.

It had this weekend as being very unsettled too - I remember a few days ago mentioning to my neighbour that according to the Americans it looked like turning wet by Friday, continuing through the weekend, whereas the Met Office raw just had dry weather with a relatively low chance of rain.

Fast-forward a few days and the GFS now shows a splash of rain overnight into Saturday and some drizzle on Monday, a far cry from the unsettled conditions it was showing. Meanwhile the MetO raw now has some light ran in the early hours of Sunday, but dry aside from that.

That's not the first time this year GFS has spun up lows which, when verification time draws closer, end up being weaker or even missing us entirely!

GFS Op 00z - Trough moving in from the W with centre near S Ireland and extending N-wards, the whole of this rather flabbily moving E-wards while HP briefly sets up over Britain and near continent Wed 26th. This is displaced by Atlantic LP S of Iceland Sat 29th which casts a deepening secondary 975mb E Anglia Sun 30th. Next LP moves in 980mb Mon 31st N Ireland. After this HP forms  N-S ridge over Britain tentatively at first but stronger and linking to Norway Sun 6th, holding off Atlantic LP and with warm S-lies.

ECM - similar but the HP Wed 26th remains somewhat stronger to the south of Britain with more of a zonal W-ly outlook, LP staying further N and not developing that secondary on the 30th though pressure does drop to some extent over France then.

GEFS - temps back to norm Mon 24th and staying there throughout, ens members generally agreeing in the S, more of a spread in the N. Some rain at first and around Sat 29th, dry between these dates, and also later in some runs, one or two spikes in the SW but mostly low totals elsewhere

GFS Op 00z ; Trough over Britain for the weekend, filling and moving east, whereupon a zonal W-ly sets up with pressure quite high for Britain at first but LPs brushing N Scotland later in the week. The last of these drops into the Baltic Sun 30th so a brief N-ly for the east coast before pressure rises 1030mb all of Britain Mon 31st which however moves off to Scandinavia Wed 2nd while small but persistent LP runs past Cornwall to Biscay and stays there while pressure rises strongly over Scotland 1040mb Fri 4th, E-lies through the Channel.

ECM; similar to GFS. More of a trough affecting Britain as LP moves to Baltic Sun 30th, but N-lies less pronounced. The pressure rise for Mon31st is there but looks fragile with LP 955mb W Iceland - but bringing some very warm S-lies for  a while at least.

GEM; like GFS at first but the LP Sun 30th drops S-wards across Britain and at the start of the following week appears as a cold pool over France also affecting the south coast

GEFS; temps bouncing around near or slightly above norm through to Mon 7th [color=var(--bs-body-color)](MOGREPS has a distinctly cold snap Sat 29th), ens agreement breaks up from the 1st. Rain in small quantities now and then; Mon 24th and  Sat 29th most likely with a dry interlude between, perhaps something heavier for the SW from Wed 2nd. [/color]

No thanks we don't need rain any more for long time after so wet recent years.  Despite this UK will never be like African drought style and will never happen at our lattitude and vast oceans around won't allow it as well.  Looking decent early next week and good timing to cut the grass as I need buy new mower for my new lawn that was laid last year Sept to be easy cut and not soggy one.

Agreed, its been so wet since the 40 degree heatwave of 2022. Its going to rain tomorrow, that should be enough to keep the gardens going for a while

GFS Op 0z - shallow low over UK soon drifting east and filling, followed by a week in which HP tries to establish from the SW but LPs near Scotland dent this ambition with stronger W-lies at times e.g. Fri 28th 1004mb, Sat 29th 985mb as it reaches the N Sea. The latter switches winds to the north for a day but then HP revives and becomes dominant 1040mb for Britain or N Sea until Mon 7th (some warm S-lies 5th/6th) before withdrawing W-wards 

ECM generally in agreement with GFS - treats the LPs 28th & 29th as a single event, but in final frame brings LP 985mb to Hebrides Wed  2nd so HP may not survive.

GEM - like GFS, has the N-lies Sat 29th lasting a day or two longer but does not include any trough on Wed 2nd as per ECM

GEFS - mean back to near norm and staying there from Sat 29th but a wide range of temps from ens members in April +/-8C from the mean. Not much rain; small amounts most likely now, Sat 29th and Sat 5th, the last especially not occurring in all ens members. 

The first building blocks of another scorching summer are being put in place.

We overdue a scorching and SUNNY summer since 2018 so that 7 years now.

It's sliding around all over the Weald but it's scared to cross the M25

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

GFS Op 0z - current flabby LP filling as it moves east then a brief ridge of HP before LP 990mb crosses N Scotland to N Sea with N-lies following and another LP briefly passing N Scotland on Sunday being replaced by strong growth of HP from the SW, 1025 mb covering Britain Tue 1st. This settles  near N  Scotland, max 1040mb Sat 5th with E-lies for S England, by Wed 9th it's in the N Sea with SE-lies for all of Britain.

ECM - Similar to GFS, but HP centred a little further S , off N Ireland

GEFS - temps mild but back to norm Sat 29th and mean staying thereabouts but milder in SW as ens members spread out to +/- 6C from norm by Sat 5th.  A little rain around the 29th, then a minority of runs resume from Thu 3rd. 

Indeed. Also, some of the long rangers are suggesting snow is a possibility in mid-April even in the south. 🥶

A good prediction as the models did forecast a little more rain around the West Kent area than actually fell, especially friday night through to Saturday. In fact, the 'rain' amounted to little more than a bit of damp mizzle around here on sunday.

Looking at the models theres still not much wet weather forecast in the reliable timeframe for the South in the GFS or ECM this morning. Perhaps this miserable spell that started in Aug 2023 is finally starting to end?!

WX temps much the same as yesterday, W Europe near norm, anything well above is just east of the Urals. In week 2, freezing weather in the far north slower to clear, and perhaps a cold-ish plunge south through C Europe to the Alps. Really warm in S Spain and around the Caspian. Rain in Balkans and to a lesser extent in N Atlantic in week 1. In week 2, mainly in SE Europe while France , Britain and Scandinavia are very dry.

GFS Op 00z; HP the dominant influence for Britain for the next two weeks with some variation; Fri 29th LP moves SE-wards towards Denmark, cool for E Britain while HP stays to SW; Tue 1st HP in S Norway with mild/warm S/SE-lies for Britain moving a little N-wards with E-lies for the south; Sun 6th off N Ireland continuing to move W-wards allowing an Arctic plunge down the N Sea. (But GFS N-ly plunges often get cancelled)

ECM; like GFS but with a second LP Sun 31st passing NE Scotland to re-inforce that from Fri 29th; then by Fri 4th HP has moved N to Iceland, maintaining a ridge for Britain but threatened by LPs 995mb Biscay and 990 mb Estonia. GFS follows this pattern and then leaves any cold air imported by the two LPs as a cold pool which could affect the S coast.

FAX has more LP influence, 986mb Orkney Thu 28th and then 999mb moving E past Rockall 

GEFS; temps dip Fri 29th with rain then mostly above norm, declining slowly, for a week and not much agreement between ens members (op is mostly below norm) Small amounts of rain in some runs from Sat 5th, not in Op. Snow row figures increase at the end of the first week in April but only to 5 or 8/33 so regard as speculative at this stage.

Here's hoping!👍