IIRC, the models were painting a mostly mild picture on a consistent basis during the early to middle part of last week. I think ECM was the first to start picking on the change of of pattern with HP building to the NW that now looks likely to happen early next week. Maybe some of the ensemble runs were picking up on the change before the op runs did; I'm not sure.

Hi Saint,

Late Feb and most of March in both 2005 and 2006 were pretty cold here, with some snow at times. The late Feb/early-mid March cold spell in 2005 came on the back of Andy Woodcock's infamous "Winter is over" post in early Feb 05 when it looked for a while from the models that the last chance of a meaningful cold spell had gone. The late Feb/early-mid March 2006 cold spell produced the biggest snowfall I can remember seeing that late in the season as we had close to a foot of snow here. The Beast from the East in 2018 saw an exen greater amount of snow fall here although it came at the end of Feb/start of March rather than nearly half-way through March as happened in 2006.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/kma/run/kmanh-1-186.png?00 

If only!

I'm broadly in agreement with that. Also, I'm probably in a minority in that I find watching snow falling and accumulating a lot more exciting than seeing it on the ground for days afterwards. Therefore, I enjoy the (potential) type of conditions we've got on the way next week. 

I suppose the other thing to mention is that at this time of year we can get land based snow showers during the day, so we aren't exclusively relying on the lake effect. That being said I've not known these solar based showers to be particularly impressive, they really only happen during the day and tend to be more snow pellety rather than outright snow.

Netweather snow forecast has stepped back since yesterday, now showing snow close to the East Coast (? showers) Wed 12th moving inland later that day.

GFS Op 00z: current HP is leaving for S Europe later today as trough moves in from the Atlantic (and a smaller LP moves briskly past the Faeroes). By Sat 8th this trough is centred 980mb off Portugal with extension N-wards to W coast of Ireland. Although the main centre fills, pressure drops generally over W Europe while HP 1025mb develops over Iceland, these together generating a NE-flow for Britain by Mon 10th. This NE-ly is cut off by Thu 13th as the HP from Iceland drifts S-wards to the N Sea but by this time with quite cold air in its circulation. A new Atlantic LP dives SE-wards to Portugal 990mb Sat 15th, but this is countered by HP 1020mb this time over Britain so any NE-lies are diverted to SW Europe. This HP moves on E-wards, and by Wed 19th another Atlantic trough stretching all the way S to Portugal has arrived, this time moving bodily E-wards across Britain.

ECM: like GFS to Thu 13th but the HP fades as it drifts S-wards leaving Britain in a rather cold no-mans-land Sun 16th between LPs mid-Atlantic and N Norway.

GEFS: mild dropping to cold Tue 11th (5 or 6C below norm for a few days) with good ens agreement; mean struggling back to norm by Tue 18th but ens members no longer agree. Small amounts of rain from Tue 11th (earlier in W), a small peak at first, snow row values from single figures in the S to 20s in the NE. 

I assumed this meant that outside of the South and East, it would be rubbish. Not so! It'd fine for most of the UK.

I agree Brian. I love to see snow falling, not just settling and lying around. If it settles for a couple of hours in the morning. - so much the better. Spring snow has often low dew points, and takes on a crystalline appearance, and this is beautiful to behold. I have seen similar up Alpine mountains as late as August, back in the 80s, but any snow is a bonus for me. And proably increasingly rare for anyone at our latitude and height in the years to come. Relish it while you can....

All three major models show a week of E/NE-lies for next week, coldest is probably GEM, between LP moving up from Sapin through France and HP near Iceland. At the end of the week GFS brings in a ridge of HP from the SW before handing over control to the Atlantic; ECM thinks the Icelandic HP will extend down the N Sea and cut off the E-lies; GEM turns it into an E-W ridge with E-lies only persisting along the S Coast.

GEFS shows temps dropping off a cliff next Tue to about 6C below, good ens  agreement, mean struggling back to norm or just below by Tue 18th. Some pptn in various runs at various times, not a great deal in Scotland at first, snow row from 10/33 in the S to 31/33 in the Highlands in the middle of next week.

Netweather snow risk shows snow down the E Coast from Tue 11th for Scotland, moving S and still hanging around the SE on Friday, some tendency to move inland midweek.

Back when I used to do my daily summaries, I always typed them up in Notepad and then pasted them in once I was finished... it was always annoying if something went wrong and I lost it all!

I'll be interested to see the outcome of next week's colder conditions. The MetO raw has a not-especially-cold 8C here on Wednesday and Thursday, whereas the GFS has 5C and 4C respectively - much colder, and with drizzle/light rain in the GFS' case.

Yes, I was think about 2013, even in that short time since then things have changed so much

Yuk!

I've noticed this happens if someone makes a post between you starting with write a reply and posting it.

Sometimes when I've clicked 'back' once or twice, my ramblings are still there; other times they're lost forever. 

If, before you click 'Post', you highlight and copy what you've written, at least it'll be kept on your clipboard should the dreaded 'forum error' kick in.

If the connections are flaky, I do a copy and paste via the clipboard since it's only text - but pushed my luck too far this morning!

The airmass was colder in 2013, at its peak we had uppers at -15C.

However I do believe this will give fairly widespread snow.

By widespread I mean to say I think a wide part of the UK will see snow out of this cold spell, even if only a few flakes. Any significant snow will be local, but could be possible even to lower levels with heavy precipitation.

Also look at my signature, in recent years Snow in March is actually normal.

Yes the BBC seem to think any wintriness will be confined to the hills of the north. I’m not totally convinced. It does look as if there could be some wintry showers around in places based on much of the model output. Nothing particularly unusual or significantly wintry, indeed quite “early springlike”. 

The “snow risk” GEFS charts continue to show the chance of snow falling in many parts as relatively high:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-120.png?1 

GFS Op 00z: the LP off NW Spain persists (and receives reinforcements from the Atlantic Wed 12th) and establishes a broad trough connecting with LP on the Baltic while HP hovers S of Iceland, generating E-lies for Britain until Sun 16th. The HP then drifts S-wards but gets deflected to the east as a trough is projected S-wards from Iceland. That in turn fills and HP returns from the SW 1025mb Thu 20th eventually settling 1035mb Norway Mon 24th with mild SE-lies. [This is more consistent with yesterday's forecast and does not match WX]

ECM: similar to GFS at first but temps significantly colder around Thu 13th. After Sun 16th the HP moves S-wards and flattens out; the final chart Tue 18th has a standard zonal W-ly.

GEM: like ECM, but the HP at the end is positioned further N so N Britain is fairly settled despite the zonal W-lies

GEFS: temps dip sharply on Tue 11th but [new!] only stay below norm for a couple of days in the far south, not a whole week, but for most of England and further N the cold weather persists as before for a week. Mean temp then goes back to norm in the middle of a moderately diverging set of ens members, and stays so to Mon 24th. Small amounts of rain intermittently in most runs in most places from the 11th onwards, but heavy and persistent in the SW throughout, and in the NW later on.