Had more consecutive air frosts in the past few days then we had all February down here. Gorgeous by day though with probably more sunshine than all February too 😂 Ironically it actually looks like warming up by day down here just as you guys in Scotland and the north cool.

This spell of sunny weather has been perfectly timed my 6 days off to Thursday until I go back to work on Friday.  Thursday look like will be the warmest day of the year so far and hope any unsettled weather won’t last long this time. 

Yes the mid to longer term looks cooler with the chance of easterly muck. Before then there’s still another few days of nice mild weather for most. 

Yes - not much chance of any wintry precipitation as of old, with thicknesses like those shown on the GFS at T204 onwards. It looks to be cool, possibly cloudy and, frankly, my childhood Memories of regular low-dew-point deeply frozen snow flakes falling from bright skies with a few fluffy convection clouds, even on visits to London, as late as April and May, and with ground temps of 7 degrees C - are consigned to the history books. The ECM puts a more easterly component  than the long sea track of the GFS, but I am still not expecting wintriness. However, if Q says there will be - I am happy to be wrong. I still have the video of the 4 hour snow fall from the last easterly!

GFS Op 00z; current HP drops down into S Europe as twin centre trough approaches from Atlantic Thu 6th; one centre 985mb Faeroes, the other 980mb NW Spain by Sat 8th. S/SE-lies continue but cooler air is entrained. By Tue 11th the former centre has filled but the latter has linked to LP N Baltic while HP 1025mb has developed over Scotland, and winds have switched to N/NE-ly quite strong for the SE. The HP forms a ridge to Norway with the cooler weather established until Mon 17th when new HP from the SW 1035mb English Channel sets up, milder for all for a couple of days before the HP/LP balance shifts to create strong W-lies, fine in the S, unsettled in the N. Yesterday's forecast of a screaming N-ly at this time has disappeared as so often happens with GFS.

ECM; like GFS generally but the NE-ly noted for the SE may bring in a brief very cold snap Thu 13th.

GEM; also similar to GFS but the NE-lies affecting more of the east coast

GEFS; on the mild side to Tue 11th with good ensemble agreement; mean temp then continues near norm with the usual spread of ens members (but op very cold until Tue 18th). Small amounts of rain in most but not all runs in most places from Fri 7th, highest chance around Tue 11th, but starting earlier in west, heaviest and most prolonged in SW.

It is interesting for sure, my main problem with it is that the winds are fairly slack and northerly. For more widespread convective snow we do need more of an easterly component. Otherwise any snow showers will just graze the coasts outside of Scotland.

Some genuinely cold ensembles this morning. Snowfall looking increasingly likely. Still worried we have to rely on convection though.

Agreed but I suspect the ride the NWP took us on in February has left many without the enthusiasm for another, very late trip.

That said the pattern for next week has, by stealth, become increasingly favourable for something wintry. The GEFS uppers have trended down in small increments and that process continues this morning. 

There's not much interest from my POV as March snow is almost unheard of - even in the much-vaulted 2013, all we had was some slush on the grass, briefly, not a complete covering. The only time you we ever seem to get it here is following a cold end to February, with snow already on the ground (e.g. 2005, 2018). 

The models generally show cold rain, perhaps a flake of sleet if we're really lucky.

I appreciate inland it's a different story (I still remember the snow of April 2008 at the wolf centre - 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Howlsnow.jpg  - but back home it just chucked it down with rain).

March 2013 sure was interesting round here with several heavy snowfalls and some seriously cold 850s, however what's modelled for next week doesn't look anything like that hence the lack of interest. I think the lack of cold air available in Europe this Winter means that only the very most extreme synoptic pattern could produce anything of interest now this late in the season.

Yes it's a grim outlook,  it just isn't going to be cold enough for anything interesting.  Just cold enough to be annoying. Northern hills maybe could get lucky. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

History dictates this is likely. The data says otherwise, and despite the relative lack of enthusiasm I think this might start to generate interest so long as the NWP continues to trend colder as indeed the latest 06Z GFS and ICON testify to.

In March it’s more about timing, and at night and in <0 dps you just never know.

What usually happens is as soon as I become more optimistic the models drop anything interesting. 

And Aberdeen down to -8 with a 22 snow row. As Michael will confirm this means cold, claggy rain on the coast but inland NE and E districts have an increasing chance of wintry ppn next week. 

March 2013 was a weird one here. I recall a day where it snowed all day, albiet very lightly, from a virtually clear sky. Clouds had dissipated by the time there reached here (from the east) before the snow had a chance to complete their journey to the ground! 

Yes solid agreement now for a colder spell which goes completely against the monthly outlook from the majority of LRF models and there was also no sign of this in the model output last week.

We had one of those in 2006. It was a beautifully cold spell from a straight northerly. North Wales got absolutely plastered with snow - I remember Bren posting pics (his parents I think lived in NE Wales) but we were bone dry for the furst week/fortnight of it.

Winds turned more to the NW during Sat 4th and overnight into Sunday we got under a narrow streamer, leaving about 10cm of snow on the frozen ground here. Was the first time my eldest (2 at the time) had had chance to play in proper snow and we've still got videos of it!!

The weekend following a big front was well-forecast to move in from the west and I looked forward to getting some deep snow. Unfortunately for me, it ground to a halt just as it reach the coast of the southern half of NW England. We had light snow for around 3/4 hours, but it only left a thin (2-3cm) covering.

A mate who lived in Dunblane at the time reported level snow of almost 50cm. Friends of ours had taken their caravan to near Windermere for the weekend (they ignored my warning!). They woke to snow. When they opened the caravan door, the bottom of it brushed the top of the snow; their scotty dog leapt out.... and promptly sank into the snow.

I'm sure David (and any other TWO'ers who were in Cumbria/West Scotland that day) will have more stories.

Same here in eastbourne . Apr 6 2008  10 cm on the seafront  below freezing till late in day   extremely unusual here