Unfortunately, if you take the GFS output at face value, sunshine looks to be in short supply in the next 10 days.

OTOH, take the MetO raw down here and there's some sun every day for the next week, including in the current Continental easterly feed.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2025-02-14&forecastChoice=weather 

And true to the forecast, there are some breaks in the veil of cloud. We do, in fact, have our easterly down here after all - the dewpoint is safely below zero, the easterly breeze is definitely lazy, and all that's missing really is snow.

Talking of which, I note that the cold members never entirely disappeared from either the ECM or GFS ensembles. Ptb 5 in this morning's GEFS, for example. Does it mean it'll happen? Definitely not, but it does mean we can't be 100% certain of the outlook.

I expect some surprises again

It does look to be in an unsettled flow, so rain around at times pretty much everywhere but biased to the west/north west as you'd expect.

There is still the occasional poster child for cold in the ens as Darren mentions, so it's not out of the question that a colder spell might happen towards the turn of then month, but currently looks unlikely IMO. 

TBH much as I like frost, cold and snow I don't think I've done more than one or two commutes/rides in the last 6-7 weeks that have been in temps higher than 4c or so (most have been lower) and it'd be nice to shed some layers and enjoy some milder stuff, especially if I can dodge the rain too. 

Well, for the north, less than a week with a foot of lying snow and continuous ice days. 😃

Imagine if P11 came off?

It looks like turning milder next week certainly, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that it will be the start of a prolonged period of spring-like mildness.

As mentioned above, a few weeks ago the suggestions from the models and the MetO updates were that February as a whole would be fairly mild, and we all know how that prediction turned out. Furthermore, there is a suggestion from the ECM 00z this morning of HP building back in from the west at the tail end of Feb/start of March. The colder spell we have had over the past week came from a HP cell moving in from the Azores before retrogressing towards the NE.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

So many members going for cold and seem easily to occur and prolonged than here.  Going to be very interssting to observe this.  Goodbye and well good riddance to the less cold easterly due to end and hope no more easterly forever now.

Friends are going to Cyprus next week for holiday in warm sunshine. Haha looking at that -10c uppers .yet I bet that won't downgrade like there. Typical really.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/hypubout/134381_trj001.gif 

You can see even at T+120 hours, the air for London at the surface mostly originates from Austria. A warm up is unlikely to happen in eastern parts before midweek.

I recall reading years ago that the ECM model is biaed towards bigging up FI easterlies in this part of the world if it picks up even the slightest signal. I'm sure things have changed a lot in computing since then, but it is something I still keep in mind. 

Yes we might see temperatures as low as 2C in London!

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2025021406/graphe6_10000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif 

NOOOOO!! Its over man, just let it go and relax!

Well the 'brutal' cold for SE Europe doesn't look that brutal to me. We have -15 to -20c uppers modelled however looking at the automated forecasts for various locations in E/SE Europe it doesn't appear as though it will translate into particularly cold surface temperatures. For example Warsaw is looking at daytime temperatures of around 0 to +4c, Vienna 2 or 3c, even Moscow has only got around -5c which is about average there for the time of year.

North America on the other hand is a completely different story with properly brutal cold temperatures forecast, Chicago and Kansas looking at -20 or -25c mins.

This seems to be another common feature of recent Winters is that North America can quite easily still get very severe cold spells whereas it has been very rare in Europe in recent years let alone the UK. The last properly cold winter for Europe must be as far back as 2012 now?

True but could then all change in March April etc with  lower temps and late frosts 

Which is nearly always the case. 

We had 12 days of decent (10cm+ or so) snow cover all the way down to the city’s beaches and some ice days, so I would say it was a respectable cold spell.

While I wouldn’t rule out colder conditions again before the end of winter, after the next few days things are definitely looking much milder.

We need a mild/warm version of Q on here. I can already see people saying the mild might not happen yet. It might not, but if it was cold being shown everyone would be scratching around for every bit of evidence they could find to show it’s going to happen, lol

Given the current output, I can safely rule winter as a dud and over for these parts. Seems to get harder with each passing year to get anything notable. Now been 4 years and counting since proper winter turned up. 

It does seem harder - and it probably is (Due to climate change): It seems pretty hard to get snow cover across the EU countries - but for us, bathed in warm seas...its a massive challenge below 1000 ft above sea level. That is what is so annoying About this last coldIsh spell, as the GFS pub run is now showing (as with the ECM), - 10 850 Hpa uppers within a ‘nats’ of the Suffolk and norfolk coast line, but that coastline seems like a force field - repelling all true cold and snow from our lowlands.  Its a long cry from my childhood Atlas’s of the British Isles by the Regis Digest (remember that?), that showed us within the average of 10 mornings with snow lying band. Average. I haven’t seen 10 mornings with snow lying since 2010, in fact probably all the way back to 1991. And the rate of change is most assuredly speeding up.

It certainly is: latest data suggests the trend globally is now .3c per decade, up from .2c.   That means anyone currently around 50-60 years old will see the average up by another 1c during their lifetime.  Or another 300ft of elevation of the snow line.

That is so depressing: and frankly it is so much the worse for the deliberate campaign of misinformation by Exon mobile and others, that delayed action on climate change for 20 years. the technology was there 20 years ago, (As per the BBC TV production “The Trick,” but the corruption of money and power has sold our souls to the devil and I gather he rather likes fires and heat.!! LOL 

I cannot now see any Global cooperation or focus on averting catastrophe - other than lip service, (All the nationalism in the face of insurmountable problems like turkeys voting for Christmas) and how sad and silly, how pathetic it is that only catastrophe will seemingly offer any potential to galvanise action, if indeed then it is not too late.

How I miss the silent stillness and peace of a rural scene under snow cover, as the frost sets in, with just the blackbird and wren’s roosting calls to break the silence, and the crunch of my wellies on the snow. I miss the cleanliness of the Arctic air - the colours and the sparkles. The model watching felt like Christmas was coming - the anticipation and the reality - watching the lamplight, mesmerising flakes dancing to the lights. Yeah - drill baby drill.