Ah! But Is warm ramping a dangerous game? LOL!! The warmth may be modelled away before it arrives, as per the GFS Control 0z, - it is a little amusing to consider that if us model watchers loved mild weather As much as snowy cold, whether we would be bereft that the (Faux) cold keeps on hanging on: but if I was to place a bet, I’d say, anticipation of warmth was a far safer bet than expecting an easterly to deliver sort of snowy weather that we once knew as normal. 

It may not be particularly warm, but there could be some pleasant walking weather next week. 

GFS Op 00z: after an early cold waft across the N Sea, the Atlantic takes over with LP staying off the W of Ireland, and generating S/SW-lies, often strong for Britain to Sun 23rd - mild in the S, later on entraining something colder for the NW. From Mon 24th pressure drops across Britain bringing cooler conditions and by Fri 28th the LP has moved to Iceland 955mb with strong cool W-lies for all.

ECM: not far from GFS; the initial cold in the east hangs on a day longer; the cooler air for the NW gets entrained earlier and by Sat 22nd it looks very mild for the S with a steep temp gradient to N Scotland.

GEM: like GFS with the addition of a trough moving quickly N-wards in the general Atlantic circulation Sat 22nd

GEFS: becoming mild around Fri 21st (slower to develop in the far NE) before slowly  dropping back to norm by Sat 1st, good ens agreement. Rain starting generally about the 21st (a couple of days earlier in the N) but in moderate amounts. 

I'm away for the weekend - reviews may be briefer, at odd times or non-existent

Massive difference between London very warm uppers and very cold uppers in Nicosia, this morning they are firming up for a major cold spell over the E Med, reason why the cold air cannot get to the UK for some reason decided to go to E Med, Greece and Turkey.  Seem to last for a week before it fizzle out for Spring season.  

Agreed the whole thing as a mirage but never a mirage if you are in another country especially Greece and Turkey when a cold spell come it comes without hitch.

I think it’s only really/mainly Q that’s kept this going (not a criticism as this is what the thread is for), but most others gave up on this probably a week ago

I'm still here too. The 6zs were a downgrade across the board, but even so, at least insofar as the 0Zs were concerned the milder air doesn't arrive until at least T+120h, which suggests there is a chance for meaningful upgrades before it does.

Poor for snow, except nov/jan for the north.

A bust for all LRFs, colder than average, no such "exceptional" mildness at all especially Feb

According to the UK Met December was 2.2°C above the long term average and January was -0.9°C below it. February is at the halfway mark tomorrow.

There are over 2 weeks left of February and GFS 12z is showing 2m temps across central England pushing 16c in a weeks' time. Thats more than 7c above the average for the time of year.

The models can change of course but they've been fairly consistent with this mild spell and its now falling within the reliable timeframe. 

Yes hopefully we can count this down to verify. Very strong signal now for some early warmth. 

There's been a strong signal since November from met contingency.

If it turns  up last week of winter ,it's a win? Pffft

As long as it's also sunny, Jiries and I'm sure many of us including myself will be happy with that!

On that note (for the two mildest days):

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_174_24.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_198_24.png 

I do hope it come off those temps and it normal for Feb max highest 14-15C per year.  Disaster day 7 no sun but almost tried to pop out but so nasty clouds not having it and greedy to enjoy the sun themselves, idiots.  

Refering to warmer seas causing more clouds is not possible because other countries with warmer sea temps like the tropics have sun allowances and not overcast forever type.  For sure once the sun out it will be blinding bright, more noticable daylight length big increase since last week sunny day.

Ensembles still showing deep cold heading to E Med and Cyprus, i mean deep cold for their standard levels while here firming up on the milder side.

Well said Q.

Interested in the 100% prophecies- in maths, that means not possible the other way.

Looking forward to it, if it happens.  I'm fed up of this chilly dank crap. I just hope it can hold and we dont get a return to the Atlantic rain storms 

We had those 2 ECM ops in a row which showed a bitter easterly and some good looking UKMO charts, but of course it was never going to happen, we always lose

Not to mention cold rain. It's been the winter of cold rain 🌧 4c with heavy rain as I type. Yuck 🤮 back to models. Would you believe that only a few days ago the ECM went for an easterly next week??

2.7, dew 0.1, the overnight low so far also being 2.7. Yesterday's high was 4.7.

WX temp charts - generally cool for W Europe in week 1 (incl Britain, excl Spain), the freezing boundary along the Franco-German border. This boundary pulls back to the other side of Germany in week 2, W Europe is milder and the cold air is diverted down to Turkey. New quite large patch of very cold appears in C Russia. Some pptn in E Med week 1, else mainly dry; in week 2 the Atlantic coasts from Britain to Portugal are wet.

GFS Op 00z: to start with, Britain is sandwiched between LP on Atlantic and a persistent block of cold air near or S of the Baltic with mainly light S-ly winds to Friday 21st and looking mild. The general S/SW-ly for Britain is maintained through to Sun 2nd even as pressure rises over C/N Europe and the cold air is shunted S-wards to Turkey, (but LP grazing NW Scotland Fri 21st and Wed 26th)

ECM - like GFS but Lp on Atlantic is closer  to Britain and SW-lies stronger  esp Thu 20th before drawing back.

GEFS - temps rising to mild or very mild Fri 21st (7 or 8C above norm) before dropping back to norm, good ens agreement, but cool/cold in NE at fiirst. Rain in most runs from 21st, a few days earlier in Scotland, heavy and more persistent in SW England.

Out of curiosity, how would define “brief”?

A few more days of cool easterly muck look likely, but then something much milder looks likely. Hopefully it will be accompanied by some sunshine.

The spring warmth potential has no problem verifying, and we should see a taste of spring, emerging brimstones a month early, all the Historically mid march growth - the lords and ladies, cow parsley, early nettle heads, day lilies and irises in the garden, the later bulbs (bluebells, daff’s etc) all burst forward into full leaf, With first bee-flies buzzing about.  

All that prolonged rather-cold weather, and gloom, with easterly, but no cold air to our east, and not a flake of snow falling any lower than 300m. What a waste of a really rare set-up, and makes you feel, that the best chance of seeing snowfall in the UK, is now the even more rare screaming northerly Arctic blast, with significant channel undercut low or a polar low down the N. Sea. 

But for that we are into Blue moon territory and many an FI mirage. 

Well, there’s always the footie and the fishing to look forward to I suppose. I just wanted to see a flake or two of lowland snow before it really does get too warm for that to be anything but a 1:100 year event.