The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 6:32:17 PM
Whole ECM on wxcharts.

Spoiler: Its very similar to the UKMO but with the cold slightly further east. Right on the edge of the deep cold right through to T+216h. At the surface will be very cold throughout.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

SnowyHythe(Kent)
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 6:39:48 PM
Isn't that the 00Z?
Hippydave
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 6:40:32 PM

Whole ECM on wxcharts.

Spoiler: Its very similar to the UKMO but with the cold slightly further east. Right on the edge of the deep cold right through to T+216h. At the surface will be very cold throughout.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Tis not the current run (well for me it's not, says Tuesday 11th). 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Quantum
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 7:05:49 PM

Tis not the current run (well for me it's not, says Tuesday 11th). 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Oh, yeh you are right I didn't notice that.

Not sure what's going on then.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

White Meadows
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 7:18:42 PM
2m temps potentially topping 15c in around 10 days time. Now THAT is something to look forward to.

EC also in favour of a possibe outcome. 850’s may even translate to something even milder. 

I’ll take showery & mild early March type weather with lots of sunny intervals, over the Pseudo-European moan-worthy fridge fart. 

Thanks very much. 

Jiries
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 7:24:31 PM
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

More growing support for very cold and possible record cold uppers for Cyprus as it been a occuring members down to -8 to -10C one line just shy of -11c never recorded in that region, lowest record is -10C back on 4th Feb 1950.  they got better chance for deep cold than here mind you.  Horror day 6 without sun or any actual weather so far.

nsrobins
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 7:29:09 PM

Oh, yeh you are right I didn't notice that.

Not sure what's going on then.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Server outage - see above.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Matty H
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 7:38:53 PM
It’s out on WX?
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

squish
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:01:09 PM
Still last nights run ( which was a belter! )
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
picturesareme
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:10:02 PM

2m temps potentially topping 15c in around 10 days time. Now THAT is something to look forward to.

EC also in favour of a possibe outcome. 850’s may even translate to something even milder. 

I’ll take showery & mild early March type weather with lots of sunny intervals, over the Pseudo-European moan-worthy fridge fart. 

Thanks very much. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Even though I think the chance of anything bitter cold down here has passed for the year...

Wasn't there an early taste if spring with very mild spell of southerlies  just before the beast back in 2018 😜

marcus72
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:16:34 PM

2m temps potentially topping 15c in around 10 days time. Now THAT is something to look forward to.

EC also in favour of a possibe outcome. 850’s may even translate to something even milder. 

I’ll take showery & mild early March type weather with lots of sunny intervals, over the Pseudo-European moan-worthy fridge fart. 

Thanks very much. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Although in the interests of balance, in the timeframe that some of the GEFS are showing potential 2m temps at those values, there is also a 10-12° spread of options (for London) so could also be more of what we have now, with daytime maxima of 5° or less. 


Langstone, SE Hampshire
Hippydave
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:16:59 PM
Interesting flicking through the GEFS from the T288 range tonight. Back to something of a split between HP dominated and LP dominated set ups, with a few chilly runs in the mix - properly cold uppers are still a minority but a bit of a tick up from preceding runs and there's a fair few more 'nearly there' members too. 

P28 looks to have the pattern broadly sorted 😜

May well just be a blip but will make me look a little closer at the morning set if nothing else. 

In terms of the op it's amusingly close to reloading the pattern - not quite the same but superficially it looks very much like how we ended up with the current easterly. HP over the near continent, reorientates/inflates a touch further north (Denmark or there abouts) extends towards the UK and is reinforced/coaxed westwards by HP cells moving up from the west or south west. By T270 we end up with a shallow easterly and a little cold pool moving over England and Wales:-

UserPostedImage

Happily for those who are fed up with the 2-5c gloomy stuff the op does manage to bring some pleasantly mild days earlier in the run (and the HP at the end isn't overly cold, presumably reflecting you need chillier uppers by that point in the month and can't rely on surface cold pooling). 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Jiries
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:44:08 PM

2m temps potentially topping 15c in around 10 days time. Now THAT is something to look forward to.

EC also in favour of a possibe outcome. 850’s may even translate to something even milder. 

I’ll take showery & mild early March type weather with lots of sunny intervals, over the Pseudo-European moan-worthy fridge fart. 

Thanks very much. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

After this disaster this current Easterly now I cannot trust or want an easterly ever again so now very afraid to see any easterly appearing on the future models out puts.  It been in my mind about comparsion of Storm Eowyn give us few hours of heavy rain but 2 near superb sunny days with record low humidity from the Altantic but from the East? Nothing.

tierradelfuego
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 8:57:46 PM
You seem to be running out of options for sunshine here in the UK. HP or LP, N/E/S/W all lead to cloud eventually for the UK which is pretty obvious given warming seas with more moisture around this little island.

Enjoy your holiday back to Cyprus for some sun. I will do the same when back in Australia, can't wait!!


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

tierradelfuego
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 9:04:00 PM

Interesting flicking through the GEFS from the T288 range tonight. Back to something of a split between HP dominated and LP dominated set ups, with a few chilly runs in the mix - properly cold uppers are still a minority but a bit of a tick up from preceding runs and there's a fair few more 'nearly there' members too. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Looking at the Reading specific GEFS I would say a move towards a higher MSLP overall than the last few days with a general consensus/mean around 1020. Bound to be still cloudy but at least it looks drier.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

ballamar
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 10:18:16 PM
ECM bit of a chilly ending
Snow Hoper
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 10:27:35 PM

ECM bit of a chilly ending

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Still only yesterday's for me on wetterzentrale.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

ballamar
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 10:31:19 PM

Still only yesterday's for me on wetterzentrale.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Haha what a wally ! Yep you are right of course

Brian Gaze
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 10:54:20 PM
ECM 12Z is on TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

nsrobins
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 11:00:46 PM
The most anticipated and ultimately most disappointing model run in model watching history 😂😂
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gandalf The White
Wednesday, February 12, 2025 11:50:51 PM

The most anticipated and ultimately most disappointing model run in model watching history 😂😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

But like rewatching a much loved TV show where you know how it ends…. 🤔😉


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
Thursday, February 13, 2025 7:05:45 AM
Might be this morning spring watch has officially started. If that’s the case bring on the sun and warmth.  No doubt we will have a screaming easterly mid March 😂
Ally Pally Snowman
Thursday, February 13, 2025 7:21:03 AM
Very mild ECM this morning.  After the Great Tease of 2025, Spring is in touching distance  now.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
Thursday, February 13, 2025 7:35:02 AM

The most anticipated and ultimately most disappointing model run in model watching history 😂😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Proper cold until T+120 at least.

So, the mild has been delayed to effective FI.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
Thursday, February 13, 2025 7:47:25 AM
Good agreement at t+168. The number of rain spikes on the GEFS has been falling in recent updates too, so it looks like there could be some fairly pleasant weather on the way in parts of the UK.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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