https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=irie&var=1&run=12&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Low heading for the Alps...

The past week has IMO seen the greatest amount of uncertainty in the models regarding the medium to longer term that I can recall for quite a while. Ever since an easterly was first suggested by the models a week or so ago, it has been an almost constant see-saw between colder runs and milder ones.

Until there is run-to-run consistency and cross-model support for one outcome or another going into next week, then all bets are still off as far as I'm concerned.

Indeed , models are really struggling with this Easterly.  Anyone's guess what will actually happen. 

Just notice the models was only twice being correct without no back tracks, cancellations, or push backs was Dec 2010 and July 2022 40C heatwave which both was extremes sides apart from zonality which they are often correct but standard heatwaves or easterly they severely struggling and unreliable.

So like the 12z GFS op run but on the cold side of the ensembles, suggesting the likely outcome is somewhere in between. That is assuming the 12z ECM op is indeed as much on the cold side of the ensemble suite as the GFS op run was on the warm side of its suite.

I think the ECM run this evening is what DEW would call 'jam tomorrow'. 

It's been incredible here. We're in day 43 of the new year and I reckon we've had nearly 30 overcast days. This past week has been hideous. The longest dull spell I remember was January 1996 with 26 consecutive dull days.  This year hasn't done that. But what we've had is 5 or 6 dull days then one or two ok ones then 4 or 5 dull ones then a nice one then 5 dank ones and so on. So  the  cumulative effect is even worse. Sunshine hours must be well down compared to normal and this time of year is rank even in a normal time.    🙂 

And it's not just been this calendar year. My impression is that November and December were also very short of sunshine. It's just as well that I've been taking vitamin D tablets. I think that yesterday, though not all that wet, was the dullest day of the whole winter here.

LOL.  Bank that one under "Can someone explain to me what an outlier is again?"

Trendsetter 😂

And yet I read the other day that January was the fifth sunniest on record, according to the Met Office?

Not in the southeast though. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/sunny-and-cool-january-kicks-off-the-new-year

I appreciate that is off topic for this thread, so I will comment on the 18Z GFS, which is very much not following the daft ECM but is rather similar to the 12Z GFS.

Dull weather dosen't bother me that much, but this spell seems particularlly bleak. Dank, chilly and looking and feeling 'Soviet'. I'd much prefer a repeat of the BftE type easterly than this drab offering. 

mini springwave from GFS now more likely. Obviously that ECM op was an attempt at trolling us. 

It never used to bother me, but now  I really do notice when there is no sunshine.  it probably is true that the older you get the more you feel the cold and crave sun and warmth and explains why so many older people from the UK move to Spain and older people in America flock to retire in Florida

The slight delay means that we cannot say this has been resolved or is game over.

Apps say no it from less cold temps returning to average with sunshine so likely game over from the start and London heading to average 9C as well.  Really want NW flow to be feature in Spring as is the only source to see sun.

One thing just to comment on I guess is the 17th Feb -> mild at 850 level in the south is overwhelmingly favoured in the GEFS, for the same day in the Aberdeen set uppers are mostly between -5c and -10c, with a 20 snow row. It's only a short blip but stood out and I guess suggests whilst the HP is in its death throes it may bring some transient interest to some. 

It's a shame from a cold POV things just didn't fall our way, either with the first easterly and no cold air to tap in to, or the attempted second which was held just to the east. I guess ECM op does try to recreate last nights solution but doesn't quite make it although I imagine we'd import some colder air for a time if it verified. 

From an amused observer point of view we got:-

* An easterly.

* Enough instability for precip for a large chunk of England and Wales (around 10-12mm or so in my back yard).

* Retrogression to Greenland with massive northern blocking prolonging the pattern. 

And the outcome was 2-4c, rain or at best sleet for most with any snow restricted to high ground with amounts minimal.