I’ll be dead honest - sunny days don’t leap off the page at me on the current output. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=2&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

There’s 4 members going sub -10, an increase on yesterday. 

(This is not a forecast, just an observation, and doesn’t represent the opinions of sensible person who can see the chances of a ‘proper’ easterly have faded to almost zero)

Yes we are are still getting thrown some cold crumbs ,GEM Control this morning as well, but it will be quite the flip now if it happens. 

The GFS )z op is teasing a return of another Scandi HP around the 27th Feb in FI, and this is shown to have a small pool of sub -15 air at 850Hpa. If that verifies, I’ll eat my hat, but its going to keep me checking in....

The reason we not getting subzero temps is also less cold over Scandinavia like Rovaniemi I have on my app showing very high at 1C today for that location.  They will see temps finally drop to normal -14 day and -20C night after 1 week last seen that low when we had early cold Jan start.   If this persist and models same time start showing deep cold runs of well below -10C or even better-15C and finally COUNT down time stamp and no DELAY effect then we might get last chance BFTE to strike before Feb out . If all fail then a chase for exit of less cold rainy Easterly and look for spring warmth. 

The infamous Kettley high. ‘That’ ECM and it was reined in to 96hrs only for the deep CAA to shift north at the death. I think Scotland did OK.

ECM: resembles GFS to Tue 18th when there is a general fall of pressure for Britain and NW Europe, cutting off any SW-lies and returning to the present nondescript weather; the main LP stays well out on the Atlantic.

GEM: similar to ECM but by Fri 21st the Atlantic LP is closer to Scotland than shown by ECM

GEFS: temps rising to slightly above norm, esp milder around Tue 18th in the SE, (less visible in the N, indeed quite cold in the far N at this time) with the mean well supported by the majority of ens members but four or five (of 33) always there to suggest something much colder. Small amounts of rain to the 18th when it sets in and becomes quite heavy through to Thu 27th (but earlier and heavier in the SW). 

time to move on now I think. Its over

Hat off to Taylor1740 who was very right to call off couple of days ago.  No signs of cold over the 00z ensembles just less cold to average to slightly above.  It been record wet and dull 5 days now compare to last month storm that brought short lived rain and follow by 2 near sunny days and very low humidity was my highlight of this winter.

Models had been very poorly wrong, so bad and so worse now than before.   That time they were firming 10th Feb benchmark for the deep cold to come here, and today should be snow showers and sunny spells in between.

It's quite fascinating watching how the pressure patterns snake around doing anything they can to keep any cold air away from the UK. "Yes let's just randomly build a lobe of high pressure over Germany for no reason, that will cut off the cold nicely!"

At 120 hours you could cast a fishing line from Bridlington and hook the -10C isotherm before it all vanishes eastwards again.

Well, the models have been split and are now firming up, so not wrong as such, just….. unsure

I’ll go back to what I said days ago. You just know. No science, just experience and percentage chances based on historical outcomes. 

Is 6c not cold then? If not, is it now mild? To my mind 6c is cold as you can have your fridge set to that just fine for keeping food "cold" unless I'm missing something. 🤷‍♀️

It’s relative. 6C is a few degrees below the mean for Feb so nothing exceptional. 2C would be ‘cold’ normally but these are new times we live in.

I'd class 6 C as being "chilly", "cool" or "slightly below average" but not cold. My idea of a cold day is 2 C and below. "Very cold" would be a max of -5 C. 

Anyway, back to the models, looks like the same old stalemate for about a week before the Atlantic stuff head our way. By that point it then becomes a case of hoping for not too much in the way of wetness or storminess but will feel pleasantly mild in any bright breaks we get to have.

So it's still cold then, ok. I thought Rob k was implying that 6c wasn't cold so thanks for the clarification 👍

I couldn't fathom that it was meant to mean mild, as that made no sense. That's why I had to ask.

It’s all about terminology, isn’t it, and I seem to recall we’ve had this discussion in this Forum before. The words when used to describe the weather are describing conditions relative to what is normal for the time of year.  Your fridge at 6c is at its normal temperature: if it was 10c or 1c you’d call out an engineer because it wasn’t normal…. 🙂

In January and February the typical daily maximum for my location should be around 7c, so arguably 6c isn’t cold, it’s around average. London is a degree or so higher, so it’s a couple of degrees below normal.