Last week's didn't have a Greenland block though.  This one looks pretty close to a best case scenario taking into account all recent runs.  This one always seems to be lurking in the shadows though.  Tomorrow.....  time for coming out? !

Yes! Sadly ECM is a downer though and seems to have backing from its ens

Great to see you back !

2018 was special as it had both record cold 850s and record low thicknesses for the time of year. It was a complete one-off and I doubt you'll ever see the likes again.

March 2013 was  incredible as well the coldest for some 50 years 

I read over NW and notice it kept delaying the deep cold so it better to cancel this phantom deep cold to bring early Spring warmth.  I don’t deal with delays, less cold temps and overcast skies. Totally hate this less cold to average easterly temps as it been the same since November.  Like to see some proper range of deep cold to mid teen temps variations.

The GEFS though are definitely more interesting with a move towards a colder solution longer term, albeit still with the milder (at 850 level) cluster too. Just one run and one model but worth quirking an eyebrow at. Will wait for the ECM set to see what that shows.

Wow, stat of the day.

GFS 0z ensembles definitely have that look about them that they maybe picking up something significant. 

No support from ECM. Everyone knows what happens next. Just a matter of time. 

GFS Op 00z: HP 1045 later 1030mb persisting over Scandinavia and/or W Russia to Fri 14th with an easterly cast to the weather; small cold pools drift across Britain, even a small trough tomorrow, but as the week goes by the cold feed from the east gets mixed with S-lies as LP deepens 955mb mid-Atlantic. After a muddled couple of days, HP resumes from Iceland to Norway 1040mb Wed 19th with some more direct and rather cold E-lies from Sat 21st (for these E-lies, the ultimate source of air is N Russia, not Greece)

ECM and GEM: like GFS

GEFS: in the S temps near or close to norm to Sat 15th when ens members split evenly between mild (5C above norm) and very cold (8c below), almost none supporting the mean; the op switches from mild to very cold Thu 20th. Small amounts of mostly rain throughout, snow row figures suggest wintry on higher ground. In Scotland/NE England, generally cooler at first then the same split from 15th, pptn mostly around Wed 12th and after Wed 19th, fair chance of snow on lower ground and thus pretty certain for the hills. 

Same to Nuneaton ensembles and there quite a lot of -10C runs as well. If we want to see this to happen, No 1 no delays allowed, No 2, see the countdown on date line, No3 to bring more lines down to -10 to -15C.  Nicosia trend is to get back to average and then get warmer so meaning SE Europe and the E Med will get a bit warmer so the cold air have to go somewhere than going to Greece and Turkey, is to head to UK with much needed subzero temps.

As I said.  Best case scenario.  

Many milder options on the table based on the last 24 hours output.

I'd say its going to get there eventually but even if it doesn't, there is a good chance things could slide more at the end of the week anyway.

Alot to be pleased about. Keep the faith.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

A continuing cold theme is not without support from the ECM ensemble suite though?

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=0&y=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&type=2&mode=1 

There's very little support there for anything properly cold though that would generate interest, therefore I think I'm calling time on this Winter now as we still haven't seen any kind of confidence for a much colder pattern and anything interesting keeps getting pushed back.

This sort of comment loses you every ounce of credibility!

Shows how this could easily get quite interesting.

And now we have a chance at a proper snow event from a slider.

Well, several points: first, I did say ‘not without support’, which doesn’t mean ‘lots of support’, so in reality you’re agreeing with me. Secondly, there’s a recurring theme of ‘proper cold’ getting quite close to our east, with some ensemble options bringing it sufficiently far west. Finally, there are still 21 days of February plus the potential in March, so it’s somewhere between premature and trolling to write off any chance of cold at this point, certainly in the MOD thread (a ‘Winter Moaning’ thread is available….). 🙂