UKMO, GEM downgrade from this morning. looks like the chance of a proper easterly rapidly fading. 

Roll on Spring 

I start reading your posts with disappointment.... then realise they were composed by TWO's very own Eeyore and relax

Downgrading from what though? Always looked bog standard to me. Temps near avearge or a little below and really nothing much else. 

Are you sure you are checking the right charts, they’re all a bit mediocre here but the UKMO for the south looks rather cold? 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU00_168_2.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_2.png 

Much better than 24 hrs ago . It’s a slow burn evolution, but I would say  the chances of a major cold outbreak in 7-10 days, after a cold week is higher today than yesterday .

Still a long way to go though ! 

I concur, and although it looks like the GEFS are again an uptick on longer term potential, I still haven’t a scooby on the likely pattern by next weekend. 

The extended UKMO is interesting though.

I don't see any downgrade from this morning on UKMO? This is the 12z T+168 chart:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Gefs trending colder in FI and the ensemble mean Synoptics at +240 are a massive upgrade on the 06z set 

I think a slightly more promising 12z GEFS with a few more colder options, however the chance of a proper Easterly remains very low and of course time is ticking now on Winter and the sun is rapidly strengthening now.

As others have mentioned UKMO T168 is a lovely looking chart, GEM is a step back from this morning but for all that it's a sharply inhaled breath whilst standing on the east coast away from being very good again and GFS is broadly consistent with earlier efforts and the majority of the ens suite. (i.e atlantic has a bit too much grunt).  The GFS does bring in coldish pool number 3 on this run though, which has a puddle of -10/-11 850s in the middle. 

There's definitely more interest in the GEFS though compared with the 6z and it's also I think an improvement from the 0z set - more colder dips in the mid term and more colder members long term. It'll be interesting looking at the ECM suite as this morning's effort was more encouraging for cold than the equivalent GEFS. Hopefully the ECM op has just picked one of the milder solutions and it's not a concerted move towards milder on that model. 

I guess I should mention MOGREPS too, which are a bit of a mess - hard to pick mild/cold out of that but I'd err towards 850s being closer to 0c in the mid term. Assuming the dark blue line on Brian's version is the UKMO op, it's actually quite disappointing as it warms up from -10 to 0c very quickly. Hard to see how that can be from an atlantic incursion, I guess it could be the little disturbance over the continent moving up and cutting the colder flow off again?

Based on all the ens etc. so far this evening I'm still in camp atlantic/no mans land at the moment but confidence has decreased a touch. 

Today's 12z GFS, ECMWF and UKMO Models are showing good signs of decent Cold BFTE, particularly from Monday 10th to Friday 13th, with a less Cold Friday for the South and SW of the UK on Friday 14th, Good chance for some Wintry showers and Cold Beast from the East winds.

Anyway for now I am looking forwards to a decent Cold and frosty spell of weather next week.

And I had a look at the Reply on January 2023 from Lionel Hutz you replied with a thank you good friend.

I hope City Andy is still here and if he reads this message please convey my kind regards to him as well, thank you.

Thanks for any comments you are welcome.

Hello Laiq (If I remembered your name right?), good to see a name from the old days on here.

I am not too convinced of a decent cold spell, things were looking quite promising but i think the cold in the US is likely to put paid to anything too decent here. That said the GEFS does have a few more cold members for the third week of Feb than it had yesterday.

KMA was doing this before GEM/UKMO/JMA jumped on the bandwagon.

Yes, almost as good as the ones were for this weekend a week ago😂

A week ago, this weekend was not in the UKMO range and the GEM showed this:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2025013012/gem-0-216.png?12 

Good to see you back, Laiq B. Hopefully you've returned at a good time for cold weather!

No, I'm working... but yes there are a few tasty charts around. As always they only appear in the latter stages - if they eye candy from last week had come to pass then we should be seeing charts like that this weekend...

I just seen next 10 days of less cold temps, no sun and rain from the east.   Any sunny weather is removed immediately so not sure if all are very wrong and so inaccurate like the models does.  Today is the best clear day I want to see more like this than inaccurate forecast showing.