What's going to prop this high up?

The hopes and optimism of a thousand cold rampers 😜

I edited a moment ago to say the HP does start sagging in the end but lasts long enough to get the intense cold to the south.  I'll wait for the ens but suspect this run is a triumph of timing and positioning, that may come off but won't be well supported so probably won't. 

The HP currently looks fairly likely to be meandering around somewhere to our east for the next 14 days or so and whilst that pattern persists it does give more chances for something like the 6z op to come off, although the form horse is the typical slow decline and meander back to more atlantic influence for us. Still, it's more fun winning a bet on an outsider than backing the favourite. 

Edit: On the propping front and being a bit more serious I think you do sometimes see that the cold push 'self sustains' by causing instability on the southern flank and as long as nothing moves the HP too much it allows the cold pool to barrel westwards a bit like a boat on rollers, with the HP sat on top and propped by the dense air and instability. Happy for someone to tell me that's rubbish though!

It might be there isn’t a lot to sink it either. This however great it looks for cold would probably end up with a weaker easterly feed and the main cold in the continent. As you say a low beneath it would make the scenario more plausible no matter how the signals support a Scandi high. Nice to look at though

Picking up ballamars 'not too much to sink it' comment, I think the jet chart shows that quite nicely:-

No real activity to the north, strong jet streak exiting N.America/Canada but heading due south and a robust southern arm of the jet all suggest there's no particular reason for the high to sink.  

The kicker on these things is usually when the models tweak the jet orientation or it spins a LP up that diverts it and the whole thing collapses away over one or two runs. 

Exactly, and Hippy mentions it starting to sag, which it will without that low or train of lows to keep it propped up. Is there any theme of that in any of ens? I don't think there is?

Themes difficult to come by might be a case of wait and see. As long as the models aren’t taken as gospel and people view them as potential! Historically would favour a sinking high into south Eastern Europe - something about this period makes me think that might not be the case! 

The only theme in the ensembles after the coldish few days later this week is of uncertainty. Everything is on offer from very cold through to a little above normal.  As we all know, we need every bit of the jigsaw puzzle to fall just right, and stay there.

Incoming….

GFS op clearly overdoing the 2m temps on this run - would be sub zero for most. Enjoyable to see good synoptics back

Yes I was surprised to see 3-4C maxes with a -12 to -13C feed of air from the east.

Less cold temps does not excite me at all and checking with Rovaniemi going for less cold temps  to 1c by following Tuesday, way too high for that region in Arctic circle.  Could be they are wrong and the maxes 3-4C being wrong too, should be -2 to -3C day time maxes.

Less cold temps is my enemy and no fun or enjoyment out of it.   

Underwhelming in terms of 850s up to 168hrs but looks like a solid block?

There are some absolute corkers on the GEFS (but also plenty of dross)

And far FI of GFS again likely to be an absolute snorter.

Reallly? There are some very cold options on there. Five including the op run go below -10C in London after mid month.