If there's any consolation with all of this, it looks as though the worst of the conditions will be during the day rather than at night. The winds are then expected to die down a bit by the time that we get to tomorrow night although we continue to be in a yellow warning for that on Saturday as well.

All of that still isn't great and so, I'm still expecting tomorrow night to be a wild and noisy one anyway, but it at least isn't likely to be as wild or noisy tomorrow night as it would have been if the worst of the conditions had been at night which is better than nothing I suppose.

I'm not sure that's an unmixed blessing. People are out during the day, at least if unwary or unavoidably outside, and so more at risk.

1987 - the Great Storm for SE England, overnight - 18 deaths

1990 - the Burns Day Storm for N England and Scotland, daytime - 47 deaths

Either way, it's not a good look for tomorrow - stay in shelter!

For a not inconsiderable part of the country, the strongest winds will coincide with the morning rush hour.

That's not good at all.

That's exactly why I then went on to say that all of that still isn't great anyway because I do recognise that for most people, the worst time for this to be happening is during the day when a lot more people are out and about.

Our local council here in Edinburgh have put out an official statement about the impact of this event on local services but given that we're being advised to stay indoors if we can, I would expect at least some of the schools to be closed during tomorrow.

Looking at the two past events which you have mentioned, there wasn't the same official warning system in place back then which we have nowadays and the models are a lot better these days at picking up on these events than what they were back then.

That should at least help to ensure that the impacts from this aren't as great as they would otherwise have been but with an event of this magnitude, there are still likely to be impacts and so in advance, I will say that my heart goes out to anyone who is impacted by that.

EDIT:

The local council here in Edinburgh have just confirmed that all of the schools will be closed tomorrow with only essential services in operation.

And which gets by far the most media attention....?

No, not good at all. Mind you anyone living in the North or West of Ireland who thinks it's a good idea to go out to work or indeed for any other reason tomorrow is an idiot. Emergency services etc. excepted of course. 

Mind you it's been a long, long time since there was a storm of this magnitude so I wonder if the general public will heed the warnings.

Many places in Ireland are closing tomorrow for the whole day and very few will open at the usual time. 

That's really good to hear - I think sadly this storm may well be making the headlines for a good few days to come.

Stay safe, DrM. Hope it's not too dire.

Lionel. Keep us informed with regards to tomorrow assuming you don't lose your electricity.  Our thoughts are all with you guys.    🙂  Stay safe pal.    🙂 

I was more thinking of the UK.

Thankfully from my perspective, the strongest winds are now being modelled to pass just to the NW of the major Merseyside/Manchester conurbation (a couple of days ago, Liverpool was being shown to have +90mph gusts 8-9am)

But NI, W Cumbria, SW & W Scotland are all being shown with gusts up around the 90mph mark for that time period.

It looks like this will be the real deal.

Ireland's strongest recorded wind speed is just 124mph back in 1978 - I'd suggest that's definitely under threat.

Edit: Arpege on the other hand dials it back a notch - 'just' 105mph as the top gust. Mind you that's likely the difference between locally destructive and widely destructive.

This storm has an unusual feeling of unreality to it - rather akin to the build up to the 40c day a few years back.

Happy birthday in advance, DEW!

🎂

I know this is the usual anti S.E comment which is fair enough given the number of deaths. But I think the point being made was despite the winds being less and the population being less dense it would have been greater in the October Storm had it not been between 2.00am and 6.oo am. The 100+ mph widespread winds took out millions of trees and massive structural damage but unless their roof blew off many missed the consequences. 

I'm guessing it may be wind. Modern warning systems probably help - and perhaps more so with flooding because the location is more predictable. Certainly the 58 Canvey Island deaths and many of the 307 as it took time for the surge to spread down the East Coast would have been saved.

Lincolnshire Flooding (1953)

On the subject of tomorrow, the FM is telling people not to travel but many businesses, schools etc in Scotland will be operations as normal (unless something changes) so I’m not sure how that works?

I've often heard about the Oct 1987 storm in the UK, but I'd be pretty sure the likes of Scotland and northern Wales has seen worse. I recall being stranded in Holyhead years back due to a full on storm 10 gale. The 1987 storm epicness was likely down to its rarity. We have the same issues over here by the way. Storms and big weather events that hit the more populated east coast are often over reported by the media and given more value than they really deserve statisically. 

Oct. 87 storm for us, meant sustained wind speeds of 75Kts for over an hour. It was horrendous.

That is mad! 

In relation to the number of deaths, well, more people live in London so there should be more not fewer deaths

In relation to environmental damage, the trees were still in leaf in Oct unlike the Burns Day storm

And how many people like us and the rest of our neighbourhood in mid Kent had 2 days without water and 4 days without electricity? Maybe that happened up north as well

The Burns day storm was definitely in the South. I was in Sussex at the time significant damage.  Plenty killed in the South.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/25/newsid_3420000/3420797.stm&ved=2ahUKEwihws2Wt4yLAxWJQkEAHcdBB5gQFnoECBQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0bj4rzgFEJx7Lizb8KBNer