The Weather Outlook

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Tim A
23 January 2025 10:20:54
Thankfully for here, the forecast looks a little better with perhaps 60-65mph max gusts now compared to 75-85mph on some models yesterday. Still time for change but should be the difference between widespread damage and a few inconveniences. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

The Beast from the East
23 January 2025 10:23:29
Monday still needs watching for the south. GFS sends the worst of it south, but this could easily bomb into something unexpected and take people by surprise


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
23 January 2025 10:28:14

It messed me up a bit - my bedroom faced SW and took the full brunt. I woke up just as the power went off (with a loud "phut" sound). The sound of tiles sliding off and smashing, the constant roar, the completely pitch black view outside, the (wooden-framed) room shaking with every gust... it was vile. I was 8, and have never been more scared in my life. It sowed a deep dislike of strong winds that persists to this day, I usually get antsy during gales and a couple of times a year I'll have a dream where my house gets destroyed in strong winds, I wake up just as it all collapses in on me. I guess these days we'd call it mild PTSD!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

As kid, I loved all extreme weather, but as an adult I now hate it.  We had a lot of damage from Storm Eunice in Feb 2022, I had to get a roofer which was not cheap and I didnt bother to claim on the home insurance. Perhaps I should have, but that episode gave my nightmares that remain to this day. So far we have got away with it down here this winter. But I am worried about Monday.  our luck is due to run out


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 January 2025 10:28:26

Monday still needs watching for the south. GFS sends the worst of it south, but this could easily bomb into something unexpected and take people by surprise

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I suspect that applies to the good folks near Pembrey Sands right now!

Seems there is some vicious convection in that front which is moving eastwards, and it brings to mind that Estofex warning of tornadoes... (The forecast is 33 to 46 on xcweather).

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/sands.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
23 January 2025 10:40:54

On the subject of forecasts, the  storm has now come into the range of the shipping forecast. Shannon looks like experiencing very severe conditions. I would not like to be off parts of the west coast of Ireland tomorrow morning.

GALE WARNING

Issued: 03:53 (UTC) on Thu 23 Jan 2025

Westerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon, then hurricane force 12 later

WIND

West backing south, 7 to severe gale 9, becoming cyclonic storm 10 to hurricane 12 later.

SEA STATE

Very rough, becoming very high or phenomenal later.

WEATHER

Rain or squally showers.

VISIBILITY

Good, occasionally poor.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

😮


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

overland
23 January 2025 10:44:28

I suspect that applies to the good folks near Pembrey Sands right now!

Seems there is some vicious convection in that front which is moving eastwards, and it brings to mind that Estofex warning of tornadoes... (The forecast is 33 to 46 on xcweather).

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/sands.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

We are about 15 miles due east of Pembrey and just had a short period of very heavy rain and gusty winds, but luckily nothing too exceptional. My daughter and I are running in a cross country race in Pembrey on Saturday and I'm wondering whether it might be cancelled due to unsafe trees from tomorrow's storm.


Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Chunky Pea
23 January 2025 10:45:56
Icon 6z looks like a big downgrade to me. Strength of mean speeds rapidly decreasing as it runs up the west coast of Ireland. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Roger Parsons
23 January 2025 10:47:51

Icon 6z looks like a big downgrade to me. Strength of mean speeds rapidly decreasing as it runs up the west coast of Ireland. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

You look after yourselves, Patrick! You could still get a good rattling. Very mild and quiet here just now.


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

CornishBlizzard
23 January 2025 11:05:29
Two tornados just reported in Cornwall. Bodmin and Quintell Downs. 

Andrew

Par

Cornwall 

Chunky Pea
23 January 2025 11:06:35
Thanks Roger, nothing we haven't seen before really. 

I'm watching the 'angle of attack' regarding the strongest zone of winds. Icon 6z has it more from the west over Galway Bay, while the GFS is still going for a more SW attack, which would favour me better (I live about 20 miles NE of Galway City). The Icon even as a little trough embedded on the SE side of the main low which would kill off the worst of the winds here as well. Still, it shows how even at this late stage, these small differences in the modelling have big outcomes regarding where the worst of the winds will be, even over a small region like my own. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2025 11:13:50
I was going to post that there was a downgrade for the south coast around here, and indeed there was a decrease in the MetO forecast at 8am, from 58mph yesterday to 53mph but I see the MetO has now put it up again, to 60mph
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Crepuscular Ray
23 January 2025 11:16:41
I loved being in the red warning area for 'The Beast' and we had a huge amount of drifting snow within hours.......however, being in tomorrow's red area fills me with dread 
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Jiries
23 January 2025 11:17:37
More interesed with Saturday due to more sunshine and pleasant weather as the strong winds prevent it from grey over cast skies that nasty HP caused it.
Tim A
23 January 2025 11:40:02
Strong winds are awful as an adult, I used to like them before I had property. 

Would much prefer upgrades to snow tomorrow morning but that ship has sailed for here . 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Lionel Hutz
23 January 2025 12:10:31
Does anyone have links where I can access wind speed forecasts? I see them being pasted in occasionally but I can't seem to find live links. I did look at wxcharts but these only seem to be issued at 6 hour intervals. I have also looked at windy.com which was reasonably reassuring for my location but I would like to see other links.
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 January 2025 12:15:34

Does anyone have links where I can access wind speed forecasts? I see them being pasted in occasionally but I can't seem to find live links. I did look at wxcharts but these only seem to be issued at 6 hour intervals. I have also looked at windy.com which was reasonably reassuring for my location but I would like to see other links.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

XCWeather's the best one for hourly GFS values, I find, and both TWO and Meteociel have hourly charts on their high-res models (Arpege, ICON, UKV etc).

And don't forget the UK Met Office site too, it covers Ireland.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gc6cjzz67#?date=2025-01-24 


Leysdown, north Kent
scillydave
23 January 2025 12:19:23
Ocean bouys 62095, 62081 and 62105 are the ones to watch in the next 24 hours. They'll give an early indication of how the storm is shaping up and may well record the strongest winds (though neither are perfectly placed for this storm).

Link to the data here: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Lionel Hutz
23 January 2025 12:23:31

XCWeather's the best one for hourly GFS values, I find, and both TWO and Meteociel have hourly charts on their high-res models (Arpege, ICON, UKV etc).

And don't forget the UK Met Office site too, it covers Ireland.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gc6cjzz67#?date=2025-01-24 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks, Retron, much appreciated. Should have been able to spot those on TWO myself really! Doesn't look terrible at my locations, gusts in the low 70's(and possibly even a little less at my location as I'm a bit inland). Now, that's not good but nothing near as bad as other parts of Ireland. A moderation would be great but compared to some of the warnings, I would "bank" what's being forecast right now.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



idj20
23 January 2025 12:32:34

As kid, I loved all extreme weather, but as an adult I now hate it.  We had a lot of damage from Storm Eunice in Feb 2022, I had to get a roofer which was not cheap and I didnt bother to claim on the home insurance. Perhaps I should have, but that episode gave my nightmares that remain to this day. So far we have got away with it down here this winter. But I am worried about Monday.  our luck is due to run out

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I'm with you on that one. Speaking as a homeowner I loathe strong gales for that exact reason, just a shame that it is a given with our (as Jiries like to put it) rubbish mid-latitude maritime-type climate. 

A quick skeg over the models with my back yard to mind seem to show that winds speed are looking to be slightly greater and more longer lasting early next week compared to tomorrow's effects from Eowyn. 

But, of course, hope the about to be badly affected areas of Ireland and NW part of the UK get through it with minimum of disruptions. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
StoneCroze
23 January 2025 13:00:31

Does anyone have links where I can access wind speed forecasts? I see them being pasted in occasionally but I can't seem to find live links. I did look at wxcharts but these only seem to be issued at 6 hour intervals. I have also looked at windy.com which was reasonably reassuring for my location but I would like to see other links.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Another good resource is airport TAF/METAR. TAF is the terminal airfield forecast, and the METAR is the actual observed weather which is updated every 30 minutes at 20 past and 10 to the hour.

The link below is selected for Shannon, but just click on whichever airfield you require.

https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EINN 


Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Jiries
23 January 2025 13:08:21

I'm with you on that one. Speaking as a homeowner I loathe strong gales for that exact reason, just a shame that it is a given with our (as Jiries like to put it) rubbish mid-latitude maritime-type climate. 

A quick skeg over the models with my back yard to mind seem to show that winds speed are looking to be slightly greater and more longer lasting early next week compared to tomorrow's effects from Eowyn. 

But, of course, hope the about to be badly affected areas of Ireland and NW part of the UK get through it with minimum of disruptions. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Never had home insurance only first year after I moved from Epsom, no use and it already expensive car insurance that I never get refund or money back for many years for no claim bonus as never had any problem with the car or accidnet at all.  At least home insurance and TV iicence are optional to opt out but not Council tax or car insurance can't opt out or get discounts.

still Saturday is my main interest.

Chunky Pea
23 January 2025 13:11:56
YR.No is one I use to get the latest ECMWF daily maxima/minima for each run.  Windspeed as well but it only shows it in m/s. I'm a knots man, and can tolerate, somewhat, mph, but m/s and km/h I just can't deal with. 

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-2964180/Ireland/Connacht/County%20Galway/Galway 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

White Meadows
23 January 2025 13:28:27
Met office spokesman on R4 just now. Very large waves expected some distance from the shoreline (inland). 

Accompanied by sustained hurricane force winds 70mph and gusts well in excess of 100mph

Coastal regions in the most danger. 

idj20
23 January 2025 13:29:23

Never had home insurance only first year after I moved from Epsom, no use and it already expensive car insurance that I never get refund or money back for many years for no claim bonus as never had any problem with the car or accident at all.  At least home insurance and TV iicence are optional to opt out but not Council tax or car insurance can't opt out or get discounts.

still Saturday is my main interest.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Home insurance - ESPECIALLY - building is my absolute top priority in terms of outgoings and peace of mind, especially here at my coastal location. But I do shop around to try and get the cheapest deal using a go-compare type web site. Yes, it is a ballache but since my old provider of 30-odd years, Swinton, rose their monthly fee from £35 to an eye watering £101 overnight, I felt the need to look around and have signed up with Churchill for £22 a month for the exact same cover. I'm sure that will suddenly rise again in the next renewal so I just do the same thing all over again. 

"No accident at all". Don't jinx it by saying that, I thought the same for years until one afternoon someone drove out of a parking spot right in front of me as I pootled along a main road at speed limit, other driver obviously didn't look at the rear view mirror while in a hurry to move out. Didn't have a chance to take evasive action and ended up written off my beloved pink Skoda Felicia. Took me by surprise and could happen to anyone no matter how careful or mindful of a driver they are. Nowadays I don't have a car as I gave up driving a decade ago since there is no need for me to own one, the financial difference is very notable. 


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2025 13:40:42

Never had home insurance only first year after I moved from Epsom, no use and it already expensive car insurance that I never get refund or money back for many years for no claim bonus as never had any problem with the car or accidnet at all.  At least home insurance and TV iicence are optional to opt out but not Council tax or car insurance can't opt out or get discounts.

still Saturday is my main interest.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

We had home insurance, forttunately paid up in time for the Great Storm of 1987, though never needed previously. And we probably got all our premiums back effectively as the repair bill was £2500 (1987 prices).

Too late to go out and get insurance for tomorrow at this stage!


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

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