I'd agree on both points Ulric!
I'm pleasantly surprised by the slow rate of loss so far this year but , and it's a big 'but' , with such a low start point and ice already looking 'stretched' and patchy I have concerns about both high and late summer.
We should have the U.S. 'icebridge data soon enough but the little snippets we've had from them suggest that the Beaufort ice is down in thickness (again) and so will take less to melt it all out (again).
And empty Beaufort provides room for the remainder of the Paleocrystic (currently stuck to the north of the Canadian Archipelago) to be pushed out into open ocean by the Beaufort Gyre and we saw what became of the 'babies arm' of ice that did that last year!
With poor ice formation over on the Russian side of the basin (unlike last years thick ice there) we can expect a rapid melt out there also.
All we can hold out for are those touting low solar /Nino/PDO-ve to come up trumps and slow the pace of ice loss over the summer months?
Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS