The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
27 December 2024 10:27:18
ARPEGE is extreme for N scotland. Feet of snow on that run by NYD.

Aberdeen is on the warmer side for now, but doctormog should watch these charts closely.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

The Beast from the East
27 December 2024 10:28:40

ARPEGE6Z looks alot better than the GFS or ICON at T+72h.

Don't lose the faith. We have a long way to go yet.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Maybe, but ECM is a huge downgrade from last night.  Just hope the storm next wed doesnt come off.  But knowing our luck, it will be upgraded and followed by a bartlett for the rest of winter

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Matty H
27 December 2024 10:29:09
For those of us mammals in here it’s looking relatively pleasing moving forward. It’s far from “nice weather” but it is Winter, and I’ll take the current output, overall, as we tick by another week of Winter on the highway to Spring
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
27 December 2024 10:30:21
We are all IMBYs here to some extent, but despite the dissapointment I am becoming quite concerned about N Scotland. The amount of snow could genuinely become extreme, and temperatures will be very low too. The top 50 miles (maybe 200 if it trends a bit further south) of the mainland and the northern isls look particularly badly affected. Obviously things can change, but the trend is cross model consistent for a large amount of snow for these areas atm.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
27 December 2024 10:32:24

Maybe, but ECM is a huge downgrade from last night.  Just hope the storm next wed doesnt come off.  But knowing our luck, it will be upgraded and followed by a bartlett for the rest of winter

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I'd be amazed if the ECM6Z is not an upgrade (and a large one at that)

Does anyone know when that drops? Is it around 2pm?

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

The Beast from the East
27 December 2024 10:43:30
Deep F1 GFS 06z tries to build a scandi block.  
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
27 December 2024 11:18:44

Deep F1 GFS 06z tries to build a scandi block.  

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

P6 is crazy

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Ally Pally Snowman
27 December 2024 11:24:59
GFS 6z ensembles are an improvement for cold. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
27 December 2024 11:29:32

Back to a snoozefest again this morning,  maybe a couple of colder days in the new year but even that's not certain. It's hard to be a weather enthusiast in this country as it's just so boring most of the time. Looks like a major fail from the ECM AI as well. GFS leading the way again .

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes it unfortunately looks like the GFS will be proved correct once again, which is why I rarely bother checking any other models these days.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
tallyho_83
27 December 2024 11:40:47
Cold spell looks like a cooler snap now and a 6 hrs wonder on NYD. Other than that nothing noteworthy. Looks like there is a warming taking place over Siberia and Russia at 10hpa as well come the end of the 06z run
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

David M Porter
27 December 2024 11:52:38

Yes it unfortunately looks like the GFS will be proved correct once again, which is why I rarely bother checking any other models these days.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

A big assumption to make IMHO, given how much volatility there is in the output generally just now and has been for the past few days.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

+2
nsrobins
27 December 2024 12:27:07

A big assumption to make IMHO, given how much volatility there is in the output generally just now and has been for the past few days.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Agreed. I cited the JMA earlier to lighten the mood but various options are still on the table, including the fabled Scandy high.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

+1
idj20
27 December 2024 12:32:36

For those of us mammals in here it’s looking relatively pleasing moving forward. It’s far from “nice weather” but it is Winter, and I’ll take the current output, overall, as we tick by another week of Winter on the highway to Spring

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 The M4 corridor? 🤣

Back to the models, it doesn't look that great for revellers planning to see the New Year in if most of the model outputs are to go by on. Might work to my favour with the nearby nightclub, though. 😉

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
+2
Chunky Pea
27 December 2024 12:38:12
That's a potentially major low on this morning's ECM. 

UserPostedImage

And I can see the logic behind such a development. A lot of cold air spilling into the north Atlantic from Greenland recently that would react in quick fashion to tropical airmasses entering its territory. No doubt it will be toned down in later runs though as usual, but even if it is, the GFS was the first to pick up on this deep low potential days ago. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Brian Gaze
27 December 2024 13:10:32
Looks like a short cold snap in the south, although it could throw up a surprise or two. However, I suspect wind gusts will be a bigger issue for most people, as can be seen on the second chart below.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

CField
27 December 2024 13:32:07
Does seem to me now that the main influencial driver of this winter is the high to the WSW of the UK which seems to he working like a giant cam , quite boring really which is the reality,  but model watching has been interesting. The usual default early mid January fence bashing  storms look set to commence too as highlighted in Brian's winter forcast going along nicely. My own personal cold chases now seem resigned to February for now ..winter is fast disappearing.
Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

David M Porter
27 December 2024 14:06:04

Does seem to me now that the main influencial driver of this winter is the high to the WSW of the UK which seems to he working like a giant cam , quite boring really which is the reality,  but model watching has been interesting. The usual default early mid January fence bashing  storms look set to commence too as highlighted in Brian's winter forcast going along nicely. My own personal cold chases now seem resigned to February for now ..winter is fast disappearing.

Originally Posted by: CField 

Wrt your last sentece, were we now in late January/early February I would agree that time is getting short for winter. However as things stand, we haven't even completed the first meteorigical month of the winter. Plenty of time yet.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Brian Gaze
27 December 2024 15:10:34
Big spread on the GEFS after the first few days of January. On balance, there's probably a weakish signal for higher than average pressure, at least in the south.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
27 December 2024 15:31:14
A more wintry start to the 12z output from the ICON. It will be interesting to see if we see more confusion/steps away from or towards colder scenarios in the rest of the output. 
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

squish
27 December 2024 15:40:37
ICON is back to where we were yesterday in showing a progressively colder plunge from the north over the next 5/7 days 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
27 December 2024 15:48:27
Apologies …I was actually still looking at yesterdays run , which would explain why I thought we were back to yesterday 😂

It is an improvement to the 00z though! 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Retron
27 December 2024 16:17:51
Atrocious 12z GFS down here; not only do we miss out on any snow as the low passes over, but we get hammered with 75+ mph winds.

I really hope it's just gone "off on one", as that would be devastating...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/30/7869/126_289UKlhu7.GIF 

UserPostedImage

(EDIT: The MetO raw has increased from 45 to 48 here, which given how far out it is... is ominous. ICON joins in the fun too, running 60+ winds widely across England and Wales. I still think that a named storm (for wind) could be on the way...)

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
ballamar
27 December 2024 16:21:07
Well the GFS 12z op run is full of cold potential, see where it ends up and if the high gets split and pushed into Europe. If it retrogresses then could be fun
Retron
27 December 2024 16:24:19
12z ICON max wind gusts up to 120 - yuck, frankly.

UserPostedImage

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/65/6423/iconeu_uk1_52_120_0hzz5.png 

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
27 December 2024 16:27:14
I suspect the GFS op run has gone from being one of the mildest in the ensemble set to one of the coldest.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

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