WX temp charts - after a couple of days of raising hope for a cold first week i January, with freezing conditions advancing across Europe, WX this morning has dashed the hopes of the coldies. From a situation in week 1 where W Europe is close to norm and E Europe above, in week 2 the cold air has pulled back to Russia and N Scandinavia, and milder weather has taken over NW Europe up to the Baltic, this including Britain. Rain mostly for NW Scotland and coastal Norway in both weeks, most of continental Europe dry and in week2 very dry Spain - France - England.
GFS Op 00z - The first cold plunge up to Tue 31st now staying well to the east with current HP still dominating Britain. Then a two-day wonder moving rapidly E-wards, Wed 1st 970mb E Scotland with N/NE-ly gales and arctic air. Presumably this isn't long enough to affect the WX weekly average, as by Fri 3rd HP from the SW is back again. That HP controls British weather through to Sun 12th, tending to be to the south with SW-lies to start, later to the SW with cooler W-lies. For most of the next two weeks there are semi-permanent LPs over Greenland and N Russia, the latter importing Polar Maritime air into Siberia which is not really cold for that area at that time.
ECM - similar though the 'wonder' is a day later and at its deepest 960mb Western Isles. The ECMWF extended forecast for 2m temps shows below average temps (1-3C) around Britain w/b Mon 29th, resolving into a cold pool moving south over France in the following week. After that through to 10th Feb, W Europe is near norm, E Europe well above and the cold stuff is stuck fast over Greenland.
GEFS - temps bumping down to a cold spell Wed 1st - Sun 5th; in the S pptn is heaviest as this spell starts and finishes, in Scotland heaviest Mon 29th - Fri 3rd. Thereafter dry and mild for most runs, op & control notably above norm.
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Chichester 12m asl