Happy Christmas to all on TWO.

Nicely succinct and accurate, Neil.

The 06z 850hPa spread chart as we leave 2024 says it all: 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=162&mode=1&code=32&ext=0 

Happy Christmas.

Compared to the last 2 events, it seems more pronounced. 

(from 'waybackmachine).

2022 up to end of Dec:

and late 2021 into early 2022:

Not sure how it works, but I think stronger La Nina's tend to be associated with higher chances of deeper Arctic plunges through central and eastern North America, which may have implications for this side of the Atlantic down the line. Stormier, colder zonality later in the winter? or just an amplification of the what Beast affectionally termed the 'Merkel Slug'? 😂😂😂

'Cold-chaotic'

Merry Christmas all, unfortunately I suspect they will have been and we will see nothing but downgrades from here as unfortunately heights to the South are the bane of the modern era Winter and the reason it is almost impossible these days to get proper cold spells in the core of the Winter. Hopefully this time will be different however past experience tells me to expect to be disappointed.

It was very much on the warm side of the ensemble set generally (and in fact an outlier up here at times).

The 18z run cements that theory tonight

I thought that everyone understood that the Op run in isolation is pretty meaningless beyond a few days. The ensemble mean has been reasonably consistent and that continues with the 18z.

Apart from when current synoptics and conditions are completely different to previous years! 

It might be right but no way can you simply say because previous years it will end of the same. Look at the bigger picture 

The 18z op run meanwhile had 10C, overcast gloom and strong SW'lies instead.

To be fair, that's one of the most impressive wintry spells I've ever seen modelled, even more remarkable considering the lack of a Scandinavian High. It would be a memorable spell with over a week of thick snow cover across the north and south of the UK. Here's the week 2 snow cover animation from MC:

Just a shame that has about a 0.1% chance of coming off! 😁

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/91/24631/animlgk2.gif 

The 0z ECM snow depth charts aren't available yet though? Only the 12z ones from last night...

(It's around an hour after the traditional "essential use" 240 chart appears before you get the detailed charts IME...)

EDIT: Found it, looks like wxcharts processes the high-res ECM charts earlier than anyone else. Forgive me for being underwhelmed by it, nice for you guys further north though! 😉(And of course it's JFF at this time of year. I'll be more interested if it's still showing tomorrow.)

I've stuck a copy on my server as the one posted on NW breaks if you try and put it on here - as you found out!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ecm.jpg 

Thanks Darren,  I was looking at weather.us and it had 5 to 10 inches basically for everyone from Bristol to London upto Birmingham. Not great for your patch though sadly. 

Some up to 47cm deep from the charts posted in NW forum to around a foot deep here on Jan 2nd.  Won’t happen that so deep but nice to see any snowfall occurring at some point.  Apps not having it and looking extremely wrong even yesterday overcast forecast turn out lot of sun about.   

Want 2025 a much better year weather wise with more cold and snowy events to warm sunnier spring and summer without cloudy heat spikes. 

GFS Op 00z; current HP declining S-wards and N-lies generated by a large Scandinavian low setting in after Sun 29th; weak at first, stronger after an Atlantic LP crosses Scotland Tue 31st and brings cold air in eventually reaching the S Coast Fri 3rd. This is slowly displaced by HP from the SW, 1035mb Cornwall Tue 7th by which time winds have gone round W-ly. HP is still present for Britain Sat 11th but squeezed between large LPs on either side, that to the east bringing a notable cold plunge to E Europe.

ECM : somewhat like GFS though the first attempt at N-lies (29th) stays out to the east, the second attempt (3rd) is more effective with strong NE-lies, however no more persistent than in GFS.

GEFS - dry and temps dropping to norm by Sun 29th. Then a week with a lot of pptn and rather cold in the majority of ens members (justa few milder ones holding up the mean) becoming drier later on and temps recovering though by that stage with little agreement from the various runs. Chances of snow at New Year from 1/3 in the S to 2/3 in the north, greater on hills.

There are a growing number of ensemble members on the 00z GFS run that go cold or very cold around New Year’s Day. Almost a third of the members bring the 0c isotherm to the surface for London.

P4 has the 0c isotherm at the surface almost continuously from NYD to the end of the run and delivers deep snow cover for much of the south and lying snow for pretty much the entire UK