It's so annoying (although we've generally had rubbish Saturdays and OK Sundays)

The "max winds over 120 hours" chart is interesting - the peak winds are over Norfolk, at 90mph.

(The dark burgundy colour is what I look for in terms of damaging winds, it's 62-68mph.)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/82/5096/iconeu_uk1_52_120_0jom7.png 

It's actually less intense in terms of winds, the dreaded burgundy stays over the SW of England and the SW half of Wales. Not a bad thing if you're anywhere else!

My preferred models when it comes to windspeed are the UKMO and the GFS. Both tend to be on the more conservative side of things, and thus, nearer the mark. Ecm, icon etc very often over inflate potential. 

...and the SE, further on. Widespread 80s across Essex and north Kent, including here.

Note the large expanse of burgundy too, pretty much the SE half of England seeing winds into the 60s or above!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/20738/arpegeuk_52_101_0zso6.png 

Latest Arpege for early hours Saturday...

Probably overdoing the snow chances away from high ground - but it definitely illustrates the risk

...and now 52. Impressive. Needless to say I hope this trend doesn't continue. The 12z GFS (now available on xc) is markedly quieter for most of us down in the SE, just 3 hours with winds in the 50s, compared to 36 hours in the 6z output!

I can live with that as it might put off the local drunks from hanging around outside my street after the 3 am closing time at the nearby nightclub. If the weather has to turn crap, then this is a good time as any.  🤣🤣

Looking at possible snowfall from the system, this reflects the uncertainty in the track - further North and it's really only higher parts of Scotland that see anything, a bit further South and Northern England and maybe even North Wales could see snowfall although again not likely to lower levels. 

Saturday's storm aside Scotland and N.England are essentially on the cold side of the jet throughout the GFS run post the brief HP interlude and whilst it's unsettled it's cold enough for hill snow for these areas as LPs cross the country (maybe at lower levels at times if it verified close to what's shown).  

Cool, very unsettled and wet and with the potential for potentially significant snowfall for higher parts of Northern England and Scotland for the longer term on this GFS run, although usual FI caveats apply. 

Off-hand, for Taunton, I can't think of such high gusts ever being forecast in all the time I've been using that website. And having high gusts for two consecutive three-hour periods is also quite rare.

Oh, hang on. It's just update to 66 mph and 63 mph!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_60_mslp850.png 

For now it's the usual wind and rain crap that we seem to have every other week. Roll on Spring.

But look what could happen over the N. pole? Early days to see any sort of stratospheric warming let alone to this degree (no pun intended!) But a warming over Siberia @ 10hpa seems to be a trend in every GFS run now and has been the case since Sunday...so one to keep an eye on! If not an SSW is certainly a displacement of the PV with the deep purple and blue for colder than average temperatures pushed southwards into Greenland and Canada and the warmer than average orange and red temps beginning to push in from Siberia into the n. Pole and if we were to go on for another couple of days it could have reached the top of the N Pole and will be in Pole position (No pun indented again) haha!  :)

Anywhere from 48 to 24 hours out, usually, so a good chance of them today - especially as the MetO raw is showing gusts of over 80mph in e.g. Bude.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gchc0ssk0#?date=2024-12-07 

Incidentally 36 to 82, as it currently shows, is one heck of a gust ratio! It means a more than fivefold increase in pressure/loading compared to the base... pretty disastrous if that comes off.

FAX - just a brief note on Storm Darragh which has its own thread; LP values 987mb North Sea Fri 6th for its forerunner, then on Sat 7th moving from Irish Sea 980mb to North Sea 984mb and on Sun 8th well away 993mb Adriatic though winds turning into the north slow to die down.

GFS Op - as noted above, an early trough in the N Sea followed by storm Darragh whistling through over the weekend. HP then settles over Scotland  for next week while the cold pool over continental Europe created by the N-lies from Darragh affects S England, near the SE Mon 9th and near the SW Wed 11th with NE/E-lies, pressure flattening out by Friday before new LP moves into the N Sea from the N 1005 mb Sun 15th with cold but weak N-lies. As this moves E-wards, a ridge of HP from the S sets up until Fri 20th by which stage it's being pushe aside by LP from Greenland.

ECM - very much like GFS until Sun 15th when the 'new LP' is closer and deeper 980mb Hebrides with an indication of stronger and colder N-lies to follow.

GEM - very much like GFS

GEFS - In the S, temps dropping below norm for the week beginning Sun 8th, to as much as 5C below norm in the far S, with good ens agreement, then mean recovering in the midst of a scramble of both mild and cold runs. Rain for the next few days, then mostly dry, rain re-starting in small amounts in many runs Sun 15th. In Scotland, pptn pattern similar, but temps recover quickly, by Tue 10th and stay near norm or (esp around Sun 15th) cool. Snow basically only for the Highlands this weekend.