https://images.meteociel.fr/im/8/21321/gemfr_16_240pdl0.png 

(Of course, the chance of that is next to zero, but it's refreshing to not be staring at endless high pressure from the Azores to the Alps for once!)

Wonder f the ECM will make more of it tonight?

This Friday continues to look like a marginal surprise event for some.  Evaporative cooling event for Northwales - > North midlands potentially 

Quite an interesting run....

Yes, interesting and a little strange. By the end there’s another weak, disrupted jet stream pattern and an upper high that retrogresses west and ends up between Iceland and Scandinavia.  Not much cold air to tap into but it’s quite an unusual evolution - and nothing like the 12z.

I did notice that there is nothing unusual for them - a seasonal spell for a few days temps of -1 to +2c with snow and then it warms up. Compared to the Winter of 2004/2005 as you were in Toronto Then when we had daytime maxes of -20c at one point? remember? I stayed at Backpackers on King st and Spadina avenue.

A few days ago I saw the weather for New York city and it was showing night time mins of -6c and daytime maxes of -2c and a snow even on Thursday 5th and now it shows daytime maxes of +4c with rain and sleep which I guess is all courtesy of a high pressure building from south of the mid western states and pushing the low pressure in a more northerly track but if this means a milder N.E USA/Canada this will help any high pressure to build to our north and north east but we shall see. Usually a mild NE States goes for a colder NW Europe and Vice versa. It's a downgrade for snow for the big apple but better news for snow and cold at least for NW Europe which is a slight upgrade for us. Also a potent but brief cold northerly. - commencing this weekend.

La Nina favours a colder first half to winters anyway, we saw this in the last La Nina winter of 22/2023 when the first 2-3 weeks of colder weather occurred from end of November until the 16th or 17th December. However, this winter is a tricky one because the la Nina has been struggling to get going.

After that whatever happens at least it will feel more seasonal than recent Decembers

GFS Op 0z - the Atlantic winding up. dropping a trough into the N Sea Fri 6th followed by dartboard low crossing Britain to 980mb southern N Sea Sat 7th with strong N-lies behind it. HP then ridges across Scotland while S England has E/NE-lies, being never far from cold pool over Europe generated by Saturday's LP. This situation lasts to Fri 13th, when the HP withdraws to the SW allowing a collection of LPs from the north to refresh the cold air before HP ridges up from the SW again 1030 mb Wed 18th, at first for England but broadening out N-wards, always with strong SW-lies for the NW.

ECM - like GFS with minor differences - LP Sat 7th is not as deep, and the breakdown of HP starts a day earlier Thu 12th.

GEM - More like ECM; the cold pool is if anything closer to the SE

GEFS - in the SE mild to Sat 7th then quite cold slowly recovering to norm (differs from WX) , end agreement breaks down progressively after Wed 11th; rain in small amounts at any time. In the N and W  temps recover to norm by Wed 11th and stay marginally on the cool side; heavy rain early on, dry to Fri 13th then small amounts of rain. Snow only likely in the Highlands.

It's amazing how often we've had this scenario of late - GFS really ramps up wind speeds, MetO on the other hand shows much lower ones. We normally end up with somewhere in the middle of the 4-day-out forecast, closer to MetO, but last time GFS was closer - the MetO, I remember, crept creeping up every 6 hours from mid 30s, ending up at mid 50s. GFS meanwhile had 50s or 60s from several days out, and in the end we had 50s. The only good thing is both models massively overstated things for the first 12 hours, but then we had 24 hours of strong winds.

This time round? GFS offers three solid days of winds gusting in the mid 40s or higher, with Saturday seeing a mix of 50s and 60s - yuck, frankly. MetO does what it always does and shows nothing more than high 30s with the odd 40 over the weekend.

While I'm hopeful MetO has it right (a breezy, but otherwise unremarkable weekend), I've a horrible feeling we'll see the gradual ramping up again as we did with Bert...

Are you going by their automated forecasts? 

The UKMO op this morning has gone quite ballsy with the storm - 80-90mph gusts for Westward coastal areas, 60-70 mph for some inland areas (bit higher for the SW).  Kent looks to have coastal gales and then 6-9 hours of 50mph gusts, touching 60mph inland and maybe 70mph for the E/NE coasts as the low starts to pull away.

I assume there's still plenty of members that don't develop it to the same extent, so still time for changes and assuming you mean their automated output would explain why that's not showing much of interest/concern.

In general and just IRO the operationals, I'd say there's been a move back towards a significant storm on this morning's runs, whereas previous traffic was in the other direction. ECM op remains least keen to develop the LP, although has developed it more than yesterday.  GEM FWIW is somewhere in between the UKMO and ECM solutions, although I'd guess still has some fairly strong winds even if less extensive than GFS or UKMO. 

Longer term and very little agreement on what happens post the HP ridge bringing in a brief chilly easterly - could be more HP, could be a slink back to LP dominated or something in between. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx 

Yup - the MetO raw output, which used to be UKV but is now a newer model IIRC.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-12-07&forecastChoice=weather 

And unsurprisingly the gradual creep up has begun. Earlier it was showing 40 as a max gust, now it's 42...

Seems GFS has done well to hold onto its guns as other models are now falling in line with the low pressure taking a short cut over the UK rather than passing by harmlessly to the south. Now it's back to the three days straight of strong winds but the saving grace is most of it being in from the SW to NW rather than the usual in-your-face southerly so my location is likely to be slightly sheltered. Also rainfall amounts is looking surprisingly scant for my location with most of it over the Midlands, not good news for that part of the world as they are still recovering from the last lot of big rain.

Some of the GEFS 06 are insane, Just hope its overdoing it,  We got away with Bert, but sadly this one looks like its going to be a mass insurance payer 

As a guess I'd say they may well stick a yellow up later today covering Northern England downwards and will revise as the models firm things up. Equally they may just flag the possibility in the forecasts and look at possible warnings tomorrow. 

There's really not enough agreement on location and strength of wind at present IMO:-

Arpege - relatively small area of strong winds with 70+ for Norfolk/Suffolk (and a touch further west) as the LP continues to develop as it exits the UK. Other than that 50mph tops and not for that large an area.

UKV - as described above and per Brian's charts - very windy, likely to cause widespread issues, winds at the 'serious' end of the spectrum.

GFS (6z) - windy - 50-60mph in land for much of England and Wales, 60-70mph around some coasts. 

GEM - Breezy, maybe some coastal gales but nothing too bad/unusual.

ICON (6z) - windy but only really coastal areas affected by noticeably strong winds, 60mph possibly a touch higher for some. A few areas further inland may see 50mph, potentially a bit higher for Devon/Cornwall. 

ECM - not sure if wind gusts are available but judging by the means, breezy for inland areas in the southern third of the UK, gusts maybe up to 45mph? Coastal gales for some south western coasts and the south coast. 

A quick look at the wind gusts on MOGREPS shows a range from a bit breezy to low 60s mph for London.

Given yesterday's runs were suggesting less chance of the LP developing, GFS maybe aside, and the lack of agreement amongst the models and ens as it stands, it'd be a bit tricky doing more than highlighting it may be very windy but a lot of uncertainty and will firm up over the next 24-48 hours. 

Up to 47 now. Whatever model the MetO raw uses seems to update every hour, and Saturday's quite a long way away - I can't think of any models which are run hourly *and* go out that far!

Yes there could be for high ground in the north. Before then, over the next 24 hours, wind gusts exceeding 75 mph look possibly, moreso in the Western Isles. However it looks very windy in many northern parts more generally in the next 24 hours.

Oh hello 😂😂

On the amber track too - Darragh by the weekend?

(That's as close as they get to having my name as a storm!)