ECM ENS more favourable for a continuation of cold weather than GEFS. Even in London the mild push is less clear.

6Z Arpege brings the snow risk as far south as me on Tuesday as the low clears through - I wouldn’t expect to see anything settling but would be nice to see falling snow in November as well as April this year!

6Z GFS brings further chance of snow later in the week and then after a milder interlude it cools down again.

Snow modelled to be lying over higher parts of the north for a week from Tuesday. That’s not “standard fare” for November. 

Edit: 6Z Arome has graupel hatching down here by the end of the run at 10am Tuesday with some heavy precipitation. 

Quite a fun little chart although the SE lying snow relies on a near perfect hit from a little feature and ECM, GEM, Arpege and ICON all say 'no' to that crossing the far south, with only GFS agreeing with the UKMO/UKV take on things. (Op wise anyway, I assume there would be a few different options in the ens at that range). 

The UKV has though made the lying snow from Monday/Tuesdays feature more extensive from when I looked a few days back although I think it's still a touch further north than some of the output. 

Longer term as Rob mentions above, the GFS op cools back down again and ends with cold air in place and lows sliding/disrupting close to the SW of the UK. 

A more interesting end to November and start of winter than we get some years at least, although the above chart not withstanding I'm not expecting much more than the chance of a few crisp days and overnight frosts down here next week.  Longer term is still up for grabs though, with a reasonable chance of chilly/cold weather either persisting or re-establishing. 

It's already feeling a lot cooler than I recall experiencing for a good while, at this time of year, being in a new location and to be honest I am enjoying every minute. Just so much happier that this home is a lot warmer and better insulated!

I'll definitely be lamp post watching come Monday evening 😁

MBY is under that little patch in Merseyside 😆 

I'm not expecting lying snow (but would be nice)

It does signal a wet warm-up, though.

Would love all that energy to slip to the south of us and the block to prevail.

Saying that, the Greenland High does then reassert itself a few days later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfjs69wkh#?date=2024-11-22 

Looks like there's a -20C on MOGREPS.

Do I detect a touch of sarcasm? Well, even if the above works out, it will be epic for southerners after a decade of ultra-mild Novembers.

This could be our "winter", so grab those sub 10c maxima and a touch of frost, with both gloved hands while you can Dubster!

I agree and 90% of the population might not see any snow but all the same it is unusually cold this early in the season and so of interest. It's also nice in that it leaves another 4 months for more opportunities.

Not really. I am less than 50 miles from the south coast and Thursday shows 3C max here. (And 14C by Saturday!)

Correct. Cold November outbreaks and pre winter snow usually is followed by a very mild winter. 

Not sure that 3 or 4 colder than normal days in an otherwise bland and mild month with really be epic 😉   

Snow in lowland southern Britain in mid-November is pretty rare but I agree the label ‘epic’ might be a tad optimistic.

Quite a few of the high res models are showing sleet or snow through parts of East Anglia and into the Home Counties on Monday night into Tuesday morning, plus ECM of course.

Not sure that carries any statistical significance. Always as hearsay as ‘if its cold in US its mild in UK’ 

I find that the weather in the US often aligns with that on this side of the pond. They, too have had a very mild and very dry Autumn so far... at least in the central and eastern states. 

November 2010 had a very snowy end, and that was followed by a brutally cold December. Similarly, Nov 2017 was somewhat snowy but if I recall correctly, following winter was mild, apart from the 'beast from the east' episode. It's all random chance really. One thing I do think holds some water though is that very wet Novembers can be an indicator of colder winters. Not even sure that is statistically backed up, but it certainly feels that way. 

Friday, sub-0°C uppers and widely 0-5°C on the surface:

Sunday, approaching 10°C uppers in the SE and widely 13-17°C on the surface:

Notable November cold and snow to notable November warmth in the space of 48 hours.

Just a shame that flip will almost certainly be accompanied with the return of rain and strong winds. 

Yes shame we don’t get sun out is this but if rain the temperature will be suppressed lower so likely below 10 not high of 17C. They attempted to reach 20 here in early November failed and was only 9C.  Those charts can be misleading and ground surface show different results. 

WX - a repetition of yesterday for temps,  "charts in week 1 show a cold Europe with freezing conditions in mountainous areas including Scotland, though the bulk of the freezing weather has withdrawn to Scandinavia and N Russia, In week 2 these areas get colder and expand SE-wards again, coming up against milder air from the south which reaches England (not Scotland), France and Germany."  The pptn pattern has changed  - week 1 heavy for Britain and the Baltic, specially heavy near the Channel, week 2 drier with the focus moving to the western Med.

GFS Op - the main centre of LP this week is over the Baltic, sometimes as low as 960mb, but with a 'slider ' LP in its circulation moving SE-wards across England later today and reviving the N-lies for the rest of the week. Briefly calm on Fri 22nd before deep Atlantic LP reaches the Irish Sea 970 mb midday Saturday 23rd with gales for all of Britain. After this clears E-wards, an HP regime sets in, the first cell 1030mb Scotland Wed 27th (but with E-lies and possibly unsettled weather over France affecting the south) and a second cell 1030mb S England Mon 2nd bringing in mild S-lies.

ECM - like GFS but less of a break on Fri 22nd and a deeper LP to follow 950mb N Ireland Sun 24th. Then the HP for Scotland Wed 27th quickly fades SE-wards with Atlantic SW-lies for the west coast.

GEM - hedges its bets with the weekend LP, from the Irish Sea on Sat to N Ireland on Sun. At the end there is a ridge of HP all the way down the spine of Britain on Wed 27th 1040mb

GEFS - In England, some rain, snow for N Midlands N-wards,  now ushering in a cold or very cold week (down to 8C below norm) but temps recover abruptly to well above norm Sat 23rd with the onset of heavy rain, good ens agreement to this point. After a short dip, temps stay above norm though slowly declining into December, weather also gradually drying up. In Scotland, mainly dry to the 23rd but any pptn likely to be snow, then a less marked recovery in temp (in fact only slowly crawling back to norm by Thu 29th) with not quite as much rain as further south 

We seem to be losing the signal for any longevity for cold.