In comparison with anywhere in the South East the occasional jam on the A30, mainly in the holiday period, pales into insignificance.  As for the models showing temperatures around the SW, people should note that there are significant local variations and micro climates which don't tend to happen so much elsewhere in England, one day in 2022 Exeter had 34c which spawned a load of people coming to Bude on the bus for the weekend (yes I said bus, we have no trains), when they got here it was 18c with thick fog !!

I'm not arsed about extreme temps, just mid-20's are fine. FWIW, the Met Office forecast this week for where I'm going (right in the coast) has temps of 27, 29, 28, 25.

Happens to me every time - even if we ever go to the Med - then you feel even worse!

Map showing % of dull days last summer (to cite just one random example). That SW peninsula (would really love to visit it someday) was sunnier than most (at least on these two islands), which seems in accordance with longer term averages.

Yes, the average in the SW is duller than it is in the SE - which is why if you want sun, you're better off coming to the SE. As I said, it's been that way since at least the Victorian days!

The Met Office had an article about Bognor Regis being the sunniest place in the UK one year (at over 1900 hours a year), and included a reference map with it. Annoyingly I can't find a 91-2020 one, but it would show increased levels of sunshine all round. Kent and Sussex will still take the crown though, and you can thank the shorter sea track (compared to the SW) for that.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sunshine_average_1971-2000_17.gif 

EDIT: Here's another map, courtesy of a solar cell company - it covers the odd period of 1994-2018.

https://solaradvice.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Sunshine-Hours-Map-UK-Solar-Radiation-Map.jpg 

Again, the far SE has the highest total amount of solar energy, and again it'll be due to lower convection compared with the SW.

And yes, I am being anal about it, I know... it's because I'm grumpy at living in an area that's so sunny! 😁

I think a lot of the duller days in both the north of England / inland locations and in my own location (reasonably inland) is down to the impact of convective build up during the day. That south of England region, being closer to the Azores high, seems less prone to that, inc your heat prone location in the SE. 

Edit: just read your own edit now and we seem in agreement on the convective influence.

The other thing is the "fizzle factor". Time and again we see it - an active weather system moves in from the west, drenching Ireland (it's called the "emerald isle", after all, for a reason), then as it gets to the east of the UK it fizzles out, leaving just a bit of cloud and perhaps the odd spot of drizzle. Apply that effect to systems that are weaker to start with, and it means cloud breaking up as it moves east, again the west being most affected.

Even spells of high pressure will still have cloud trying to move in from the west, the only way to avoid it is to have high pressure centred over the Midlands or further north (albeit that then raises the risk of cloud coming up from the south). It's surprisingly hard to get a large high centred over the British Isles for long, and as a winter fan I know that all too well! It *feels* like it's easier to get in summer, but even then in reality it's usually just a day or three, rather than a long stretch. Ridging from the south (with the north and west under SW'lies) is more common.

But there isn't that much difference right across the south portion.

Anyway, to get back on topic, first hints from all 3 that the low may not be as horrible as has been showing over the past few days. Please make it happen!

GFS Op - current HP over Britain declining (MetO suggesting scattered thunderstorms for England Thu) . By Sat 3rd LP moving from NW to Rockall 990mb, staying in that general area and eventually affecting most of Britain Tue 6th before HP from the SW forms a broad ridge covering Britain Thu 8th persisting for a week before another LP appears near Iceland. 

ECM - much as GFS though as next week's LP moves to the NE it leaves a trough lingering over Britain for a day or so. The ex-hurricane is off the US coast Wed 7th but doesn't show on GFS

GEM - not unlike GFS but moves the LP down to C Britain Tue 6th as it fills

GEFS - The current warmth in the S disappears by Sat 3rd to be followed everywhere by a week of temps near or slightly below norm, before recovering slightly. Rain starting Thu 1st, heaviest in the S then and more generally around Tue 6th, but no very large amounts anywhere nor any prolonged dry periods.

A bit of a reversion to the worst case scenario this morning.

The stinker of a low for this weekend and through next week is already forming in some unusually cold (for the time of year) air between the west coast of Greenland and NE Canada. As it starts to trundle towards us, the models show a separate, small low spawning much further south, over Nova Scotia, and as that moves eastwards, it gets caught up in the orbit of the major low. It's this secondary low that reaches much further south, creating a kind of trailing front.

Arse.

A very localised assessment! 😄

Also, in that period August 4 to 7 which is notably warmer in the south east, this Ops run is at the very top end of the Ens. More runs needed before there can be any confidence

(BTW I did just about get round in the dry on my Yorkshire MTB race on Saturday, barring a brief and rather chilly downpour on top of a 550m hill! Was glad I was doing the Saturday race and not Sunday this year as it was really rather hot yesterday)

👍👍

Tomorrow 31C

Wednesday 30C

Thursday 28C

In reality temperatures will probably be a degree or two warmer like today has been so that could be 3 consecutive days of +30C for here which is impressive for the south coast. It's been a couple years since that last happened.

GFS Op - pressure dropping over Britain towards the weekend as LP 980mb sets up S of Iceland, That LP or its successors are never far from Scotland until Fri 9th; in the meantime troughs extend S-wards esp around Tue 6th though the S Coast may escape. Pressure then builds with a N -S ridge covering Britain Wed 14th though it looks mobile with more LP waiting on the Atlantic.

ECM - like GFS though the last chart for Fri 9th still has that LP well set to the W of Scotland.

GEM - like GFS but also slow to dispatch that LP, in this model it intensifies over the Faeroes Fri 9th

GEFS - temps, where they've been high, dropping back to norm by Sat 3rd, then up and down around norm to Thu 15th, highest likelihood of a cool spell around Fri 8th. Rain in small amounts on and off throughout; generally most likely around Tue 6th, and for the S Thu 1st. Heaviest in the NW where a very few runs have very large totals.

This trend continues, and I'll be happy.

GFS Op - HP over Britain slowly collapsing as LP 980mb sets up between Scotland and Iceland Sat 3rd. It hangs around in that general area for the following week to Fri 9th, perhaps positioned a little further north than yesterday and not really affecting S England except possibly Tue 6th. HP then revives from the south briefly before another LP appears off Scotland Sun 11th, this time short-lived and HP firmly in charge of the whole country by Fri 16th.

ECM - similar to GFS but models ex-hurricane Debby off Carolina on Wed 7th (not shown on GFS), running up the US coast before moving into the Atlantic and adding oomph to the LP Sat 10th.

GEM - similar to GFS but throws in a trailing trough on Fri 9th as the LP departs

GEFS - In the S, warmer pulses on 1st, 5th and 9th after which minimal agreement of ens members though mean near norm, and rain in small amounts at any time, one or two runs with thundery peaks. In the N, temp peaks and troughs are levelled out, cooler overall; dry for a few days then some rain on most days with amounts more variable in NE.