GFS Op - ridge of HP from the SW across Britain for the next few days, soon breaking down, first with warm LP from the S (MetO rain radar has heavy rain for the SE Wed 31st) then with cold LP from Iceland affecting NW Scotland by Sat 3rd and becoming centred over Britain 990mb N Ireland and Scottish Borders Wed 7th. The main centre moves away NE-wards but leaves a secondary moving SE-wards over Wales 995mb Sun 11th.

ECM - like GFS until Sat 3rd but then the centre of LP returns N-wards towards Iceland. A broad and rather cool trough nevertheless persists over Britain. Maybe just a little warmer and drier near the south coast.

GEM - continental plume more marked than the other two models but displaced all the same by Sat 3rd (990mb Hebrides and well-defined trough for the rest of Britain). Like ECM, the LP centre soon moves to the north, but this model then adds a marked trough approaching Ireland from the west Tue 6th.

GEFS - Pulse of warmth for the SE at maximum 6 or 7C above norm Wed 31st, much less marked further N and absent from N Scotland. Temps then drop slowly and remain near norm (mean) or a few degrees below (op & control) for the first week of August, recovering somewhat in the S at the end. Rain starting around 31st July and continuing throughout, front-loaded in the S, heavier later in the N and persisting there.

GEFS shows the likelihood of more unsettled weather generally after next Sunday,  but unlike the Ops run, it recovers again after a few days to something a bit drier and warmer.

Indeed the 6z GFS is basically Autumn.  Terrible run

Sod's bloody law.

Whatever you do, don't do that. If you do the models will suddenly flip and some lucky bugger who got a late cancellation gets a weeks glorious weather.....

🤣👍

Even here it's 27/28/28 respectively, which would give us our second (and unwelcome, to me at least) heatwave of the summer.

As ever, it looks like being very humid with it too - dewpoints of 18.5 modelled on the MetO raw, 17 on the GFS. GFS, of course, has a nasty habit of undercooking both temperatures and dewpoints...

Hopefully anyone who a) wants heat for whatever reason and b) has a UK holiday next week will have picked the SE for their travels!

The MetO output shows 25 and sunny intervals for next Friday here, and 24 and sunny intervals for next Saturday, which is as far out as it goes - both days warmer than average. Or, in other words, the models don't all show what you mention, at least for the SE chunk of the UK, even Reading, halfway to Wales from here, still has 25/23 respectively.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-08-03&forecastChoice=weather 

And for the 5 days before next Friday, warm at a minimum, very warm or hot on some of the days, loads of sun and humid with it.

(And the GFS still underestimates temperatures, woefully so. GFS forecast here for 6PM today? 19C. MetO? 23C. Reality? 24.7!)

FWIW, where I'm going to be staying, Met Office has 21c max and cloudy with 30% of rain all through the day for both Friday and Saturday.

Not exactly weather to encourage an afternoon on the beach...

It's a bit more than just a "corner", but we'll agree to disagree on that one I guess. (Even Great Yarmouth, 90 miles north of here, has the same picture as down here in relative terms).

You don't pick the SW for warmth, btw, being a peninsula stuck out into the ocean, and it genuinely baffles me why it's so popular with sun-seekers... if that's what you're after it's a guaranteed disappointment. You pick it for its scenery and mix of rocky and sandy beaches rather than the climate!

You're far better off in the SE, which again has always been the case - Eastbourne used to trade on being the sunniest resort in the UK, and as you'll know we get the warmest conditions in general - along with the humidity too. The sea is shallower too, so heats up very quickly (SSTs are 19C off Sheppey, for example, 18C off Eastbourne, compared to as low as 14C off north Cornwall -

https://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php  )

The MetO still has 30s this morning, and I fully suspect another 31 if not 32 will be found somewhere in the London area on Wednesday.

Beyond that, GFS does what it's done through the summer, showing some heavy rain, while MetO shows nothing but the odd bit of cloud... and, as usual, GFS is a couple or more degrees below the MetO output generally. GFS has temperatures a degree either side of the mean, while MetO is resolutely above, only reaching normal by next Sunday. And that, of course, is never going to be the most accurate forecast... I mean who would take a T+180 chart as gospel? Not many, I'd wager!

Seems we have a reversal (not the atmospheric kind) of trends whereby the kids break up from school and summer arrives proper. Usually that heralds a certain beginning to unpleasant conditions! ..at least in recent years. 

GFS Op - HP persisting for most of the coming week, though being nibbled at by continental LP in the south, then on Friday 2nd a fairly deep and cool LP moves to Rockall 985mb and drifts around between there and Iceland throughout the following week, unsettled for Scotland esp the NW, but S England hanging on to the remnants of HP. On Sun 11th the LP centre moves to SW Ireland, bringing warm/hot SE-lies for all before cutting them off as it moves E-wards to S Scotland.

ECM - like GFS but on Wed 7th (last chart in series) the LP begins to move NE-wards, not S-wards, and leaves a trailing trough across England. Ex-hurricane also showing off the US coast then.

GEM - also like GFS with that LP a few mb deeper and closer to Scotland, and on Wed 7th develops a new LP W of Ireland 990mb, earlier than on GFS. The ex-hurricane is still sticking around Florida.

GEFS - a warm peak in the S (5C above norm) for Wed 31st though scarcely noticeable in the N, then near or a little below norm from Fri 2nd for a week before recovering somewhat. Rain from time to time from 31st onward, not much in Scotland at first, not much in England later, but quite widely most persistent and heaviest around Wed 7th.

I wish the media would use this kind of terminology for a predicted lousy week of weather!

At a glance it looks a little better in this morning’s output than on yesterday’s. Potentially hot in the southeast but pleasantly warm at times elsewhere.

Well the Met Office app at least for the SE shows quite the  opposite. I am more inclined to go with their 5 day forecast as so far this summer they seem to have generally got the medium term forecasting right.

Hopefully the south east can cling on to some warmth. 

Indeed it does and just a week ago a lot of the professional forecasters I heard were very confident that August would be the warmest and best month of the summer which isn't looking the case now. Also it looks like GFS will be proved correct once again despite many writing it off as always. 

That will get the Met Office in a frenzy . It seems as soon as it gets a bit warmer they bang on about Heatwaves

Conditions look to turn increasingly warm, or even hot, in central, southern and eastern areas early next week and it is possible some places may reach heatwave criteria. It’s uncertain how long this warmer weather will last though, with a possible breakdown from mid-week.

3 Days.  🙄Some one will tell me it is for the Healthcare Service . Yes but why is it on the public MO page?

Models are again showing temperatures in the SW (where we are in North Cornwall) just under 20c for the foreseeable.  Regarding your comment about the SW not being for sunseekers, people come here for what is a sensible climate, great surf and not having ridiculous traffic, noise and pollution to deal with, it's never too hot or too cold (in the winter) and having lived here now for 3 years it seems as sunny as anywhere else I've been.

Thing about Cornwall is that if the weather is not suitable for you on the North Coast, it will be different on the South Coast.

 Having been stuck on the A30 many years ago in traffic jams i cannot agree with you there.

This is for us on the coast so i wouldn't be surprised if something higher than 33C is reached inland.