Oh ye of little faith. As it turns out the models have handled it relatively well. It's the usual pattern: initially they're a few degrees too low, then as the event gets closer the temperatures go up, and up, and up.

We've had three official 30s already today and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 32 or even 33 reached this afternoon somewhere in the SE.

Are there any signs from mid to late next week we may get a resurgence of the heat? It was being talked up a few days ago 

GEM similar, but keeps trying to dig the energy well south in the mid-Atlantic so instead of being forced north of the UK, the lows hit the ridged high full-on and topple it.

GFS Op - for the coming week or so, changeable with a general W-ly influence, alternating troughs and areas of HP (the latter Wed 24th and Sun 28th). Then the Atlantic wakes up (new!) and deep & cold LP runs from the W to Clyde 975mb Thu 1st, moving away quickly but leaving a secondary to run along the Channel Sun 4th. [An untypical development and thus IMO unlikely to remain in future forecasts].

ECM - As for GEM

GEM - like GFS but the HP Sun 28th (end of download) looks as if it may persist.

GEFS - temps soon dropping to near norm and staying there with good ens agreement to end of month, then a modest warming trend in most runs. Mostly dry in the S (a few rogue members), rather wet in the SW and NW at first but fairly dry thereafter, contrasting with the Op.

GFS Op - changeable for the next two weeks with troughs moving across from the west, not especially deep (yesterday's suspect deep low on Thu 1st no longer features) and brief spells of HP between. There's a tendency for the troughs to stall in the N Sea. Troughs noted for Mon 22nd, Thu 25th, Tue 30th, Mon 5th.

ECM - similar to GFS, but HP more developed and the trough Tue 30th does not appear.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM

GEFS - mean temp oscillates around the norm with op run tending to be on the cool side. Small amounts of rain in some ens members at intervals, no clear pattern (most likely for the S around Mon 29th, more generally spread for the N, heavier in the W)

Closer to the present day it’s still very much up in the air whether I might finally have a dry race up in Yorkshire next weekend. GFS brings heavy rain across the south later on Saturday. BBC and Met forecasts have gone from mostly dry to “sunshine and showers”. Only the iPhone app looks totally optimistic. 

GFS Op - troughs moving across from the Atlantic this week, now , and again on Thu/Fri, followed by a long period with HP moving in from the SW and settling over France and England. Scotland is on the fringes of this with LPs moving NE-wards close to NW Scotland Wed 31st, Sat 3rd and Tue 6th bringing persistent SW-lies.

ECM - As in GFS, HP moves in at the weekend but more strongly and covering all Britain. However this model then throws in another trough crossing Britain on Wed 31st.

GEM - agrees with ECM and makes the trough on Wed 31st quite a deep feature.

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 26th, cooler for a few days, then a little above norm in south esp SW but more variable in north (op & control in S definitely warmer matching WX but not all ens members agree). For the S, rain about Thu 25th (MetO suggesting heavier than GEFS), then dry, but intermittently in the N throughout. No great amounts anywhere.

Sound what summer supposed to be and we might be having a 2nd better half of summer to September.

Should not see any more silly cold weather from any direction as I see now 27C over Santa Claus with full wall to wall sunshine, it might be high but it show that regions over the arctic circle are not cold so UK cannot get any cold temps from now on until Autumn.

Either ECM or GFS both are good to us although long settled and dryness are more important.

Each of the models continue a theme of a lack of sustained settled weather.

Been a good Summer so far imby as not been to hot. But yet another Summer with a lack of storms-they seem as rare as snow nearly these days. Im sure there used to be a lot more storms on Average in the 80s and 90s¿ Could be a Imby symptom, as they can be hit n miss but im sure there used to be a lot more "plume type" events with high based storms moving up from France overnight?

GFS Op  - troughs from the Atlantic with ridges between for the next week (trough just leaving, others for Thu 25th, Mon 29th, and Wed 31st). The last two of these troughs affect mainly the NW as pressure rises more soundly in the S and for w/b Mon 29th the pattern is for westerlies, settled weather in S England with HP over France, changeable in N Scotland as LP hangs around near Iceland. Only on Wed 7th does this give way to HP over the whole country.

ECM - similar to GFS but running a day later in the timing

GEM - similar to GFS though brings the trough on Mon 29th much further S, and then delays the approach of that for Wed 31st

GEFS - For the S, rain 25th/26th followed by a few cool days before steadily warming up (op run 5C above norm Wed 7th, the most optimistic of ens members which are however mostly above norm) and very little rain. Temp profile similar for the N though not quite as warm and less agreement in ens members, but rain frequent, not much in NE rather more in NW.

The AH ridging over much/part of the UK for a day or two before the next Atlantic low digs much further to the south than usual to bring a day or two of unsettled for some/most/all of the country, then the AH ridges... rinse and repeat.

The only change from June is that the lows are reaching a little less south and the AH is ridging a little stronger, so that the far south is less impacted by the lows.

No real heat away from the SE; planning anything more than a couple of days in advance is a total lottery.

The odd run has shown the ridge of the AH to break off and sit over the UK, or the AH to ridge well to the NE and form a more semi-stable block to divert the lows well away from the UK, but these are in the minority.

Agreed, Saint.

The common theme of the models ever since early June has been that whenever the models have indicated a period of HP domination as they have a few times, they have very quickly renaged on that and then shown HP building in less strongly and then collapsing ahead of the next LP from the atlantic. I think someone earlier in the thread compared it to the chase for cold last winter; it sure feels like that to me.

I fear August will continue in the same vein 

Anybody heard from him?

All models had been very very poor and rubbish performance, they did not pick up this recent very warm spell as it came out of blue at short term, they were so insisting we suffer more with low temps, rain and winds.  Like I said before they are a lot worst nowdays, too many backtracks, wilful delays and nonsense extreme cold or hot stuff that never happened.

GFS Op - trough crossing Britain from the Atlantic today/tomorrow as previously forecast, then a stronger rise of pressure so that the forecast trough on Wed 31st is less of a feature. Then the weather settles into a pattern of HP over France and areas of LP passing near NW Scotland until Fri 8th i.e. settled in the S, changeable in the N, with SW-lies predominating. LP closest to Scotland Fri 1st, Sun 3rd and Thu 7th with SW stronger then esp around the 1st.

ECM - similar to GFS though the trough on Wed 31st moves up from the S (warmer?) rather than in from the NW but still a weak feature.

GEM - close to GFS

GEFS - in the S, cooler with a little rain this week, then mostly dry with temps close to or a little above norm; a lot of variation in ens members later on. In the N and to some extent in the W, temps close to norm rather than above and some tendency for small amounts of rain in the first week of August