Still 29 on the latest here (and the MetO forecast is for the beach, rather than 0.5 miles inland where I am) - the old SW'ly foehn effect of course. Saturday's gone up to 28 now, mind you...  🥵

Well into FI, I know, but there's a moment at t+294 when high pressure is centred just off East Anglia (and covering almost all the BI) and a low is expanding SE'wards well to the SW of the UK (towards NW Iberia). You're thinking, "Go on, slide that energy under the UK high... do that and we're quids in!"

Then in the next couple of frames, the energy instead soars northwards to first topple the high, then push it away eastwards before sinking fronts down over the northern half of the country.

Yes, you’re getting a little defensive and you weren’t overly complaining.  We just know your preference is for something opposite to that of Retron.  I get that you’re not much further north than me, although I did think it was more than 30 miles.  You’re further West and we’re sheltered by the Pennines, which can make a considerable difference.  A little drier will do me, plus low 20’s and sunshine.  (Insert smiley emoji here!  I can’t do them on my phone). 

Think our summer preferences are quite aligned (I'd prefer mid-20's). I just want a month or so of almost no rain and lots of sunshine. Ideally covering my week in South Devon in early August!

I took the 30 miles as from Nottingham; you're about 12 miles further north, so actually less than 20 miles north of you (I'm about on a level with Rotherham). But yes, obviously a fair bit further west. 

It's a bit weird that a pattern that would bring a lot of damp weather here in the Autumn/Winter months brings so little rain in the summer. Apart from a sharp but brief shower here the other evening, it has been very dry this month so far. Grass showing subtle signs of yellowing but cracks in the soil really showing up now. 

No cracks likely around here for a while - got a proper soaking yesterday and after the grass was looking quite yellow a week or two ago I can practically watch it growing.

The models can't quite make up their mind whether it will settle down or whether the lows will keep digging south. The general picture today is not brilliant but quite useable, especially for the south. GFS and GEM both look like building enough of a ridge to keep it dry for my MTB event at the end of next week too.

Also signs that this Saturday might hang on as a warm day.

Take a look at the CFS and it does take the energy under the block. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=198&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Given the lack of direct sunshine (it always seems to be filtered through a stratiform layer of mid-level cloud at best) and no real excessive heat this month so far (thank Christ!) , this 'yellowing' is all the more remarkable I think. 

Warm night Friday into Saturday but for us Saturday is showing a cooler 23C.

In reality it'll probably be a degree or 3 higher than thr auto forecast 😂

12z GEM again not too bad

Really puts this summer into perspective. CET still running at -1.5 quite likely lower when the cool conditions return from Sunday til month end.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

We now have 30s on both Friday and Saturday, with overnight 18s - it's going to feel awfully sticky as a result, and I wouldn't want to be on the roads on Sunday! (Even heat-hounds tend to moan about the heat overnight, I've found).

It's an amazing change in just three days: on Sunday the forecasts were for 23 on Friday and 22 on Saturday, so they've gone up 7 and 8 degrees respectively. It is, however, consistent with what I was expecting: 14C 850s at this time of year in sunny conditions should result in 30C, give or take a degree.

The MetO raw also has 31s in places like Hammersmith on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 32 lurking somewhere nearby.

Still nothing in the red-tops. Surely they've got to catch on soon!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys4.jpg 

GFS looks a bit better overall now with warmer temperatures than recently and more settled as pressure is higher.

Met Office showing 28C for Leeds as mentioned above so not just a SE event.

Even as far north as Newcastle it’s showing 26C. It’s just Scotland as per usual that misses out.

A few of them.

..and that's the UKV model too, as opposed to whatever the "new" MetO output is using. Good agreement there, and I can't help but notice the pool of 30s a fair bit further north too.

Oh, and regarding the trashy press - it's started! 😁The heat alert was in place yesterday, and I was wondering how long it'd take before it's picked up. Next up will be people saying "it's only summer, what do you expect"...

Yellow heat health warning issued for Kent with the county expected to be as hot as Ibiza, Paris and the Algarve

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/heat-health-warning-issued-as-kent-set-to-be-as-hot-as-ibiza-309888/ 

GFS Op - HP for Britain at first followed by troughs swinging across on Sat 20th and Mon 22nd under the guidance of LP near Iceland. Then a break from the succession of LP of recent days; pressure rises mainly for England at first but for the whole country by Sun 28th; then it's the north's turn for HP as a shallow depression runs past Cornwall and into N France Tue 30th. The sequence finishes Fri 3rd with a narrow ridge of HP lying SW-NE across Britain.

GEFS - warm esp in the S to Fri 19th, then temps close to norm or on the cool side to Fri 26th, after which rising again though with ens members showing differences. Generally dry for a few days, then a little rain from time to time in the S & E, heavier at times in the W, and as ever more continuous in N Ireland/W Scotland. 

ECM - like GFS for most of the time, but HP does not develop widely towards Sun 28th; in fact by the last chart Sat 27th Lp 1000mb off NW Scotland and HP only just hanging on in the S.

GEM - agrees with ECM

It good for the north that deserve to get some warmth they badly needed after the horrible cold rain non-stop in the NE.  If 28C Leeds then Birmingham can see 30C and 31-32C in London.  Seem t kept ugrading the temps that used to be normal upgrades in the past heatwaves.

There's usually a "hotter than Rio" headline this time of year too even though typical max temperatures are about 26C there in July

I also keeping on eye on September and early Autumn as I feel it going to be very warm side to make up for cold Spring to half way summer seasons.