GFS Op - a series of (mostly) shallow troughs moving across Britain from the W with brief intervals of HP, until Fri 26th when the Azores high moves in (for real this time?). Troughs noted now (in N Sea), Wed 17th (from Ireland heading to Scotland), Sun 21st (along the Channel) and Wed 24th (past NE Scotland into N Sea).

ECM - similar pattern to GFS but with variations in location and timing. Troughs now, Tue 16th (Wales), Thu 18th  (from Ireland heading to Scotland), Mon 22nd (Hebrides).

GEM - similar to above until Wed 17th when the incoming trough deepens considerably (985mb) and then moves N to Iceland and stays there, bringing in W-lies which last through to Tue 23rd.

GEFS - temps soon back to norm, then the mean stays there with different ens members inconsistently above and below but within a fairly narrow range. Rain by  compass points; in the S probable near Tue 16th and less likely Sun 21st, otherwise very little; in the E heavier now but smaller amounts at intervals later; in the NW dry for a few days then significant amounts throughout.. 

I went out to water the vegetables last night and it absolutely had an autumnal feel; due, of course, to the northerly feed and cloud cover, but it certainly didn’t have that summery feel.  Today feels like it might be more of the same but next week looks a lot better.

Exactly the expression we used yesterday evening. Peter! Not much improved today. I managed to mow the lawn. I'd been hoping to strim the "No Mow May" jungle before settling to watch the Tennis but it turned wet. Tomorrow looks like being a heavy sport-watching day!

It’s not that easily to work out but this may be helpful? 

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Sea_Level_Pres_Anom.html 

Thanks, Michael 👍

On first glance it's not what I expected to see 😄 (the positive anomaly to our west and, especially, strong negative anomaly to our NE - as blocking to our NE, deflecting the path of Atlantic lows on a more southerly trajectory, seemed to me to be a recurring pattern).

But deeper inspection shows the tip of a positive anomaly well to our NNE (north of Murmansk) - and this is part of our problem. 

A northern hemisphere view would, I think, show it much better.

Still perfectly normal though, and more normal than the average, which isn't that 'normal' at all.  Some summer's are hot, some less hot, but always warm no matter what side of the average temp it lies. 

A closer view. 

To be fair, the Azores high sitting out over the Azores or even further west has very much been a theme of the summer so far. It's one of the reasons for the feed of depressions spawning near Greenland and coming our way. 

For Summer fans no point over analysing atm come back in a week or so.

Yes getting to the point soon where we can write off July and look to August. Surely a good chance now of a sub 15c CET July, which would be like the first for 30 years or so.

No long spells of settled weather but 3-4 days of dry weather in the south and south east after Tuesday, temps maybe up to 25 c, so not that bad . 

 Makes a change from heatwaves every year.

Heatwave is very normal for a summer season, it part of package and requirements set by the season of Summer and we had none of this year yet but still expecting September to deliver the goods.

By then of course, it will be too late for that in books as I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn.

Even now, the days are shortening and it is gradually darker at nights again. That is a process which will only accelerate as we approach the Autumn Equinox so that even if we were to get some decent weather in August, there isn't going to be as much available daylight to be enjoyed then as there is even now.

Given that there are still no real signs of any decent summer weather within the more reliable timescale of the latest model output, I believe that our chance of getting any real benefit from the lightest nights of the year have now gone as far as this year is concerned, as a result.

That scenario would therefore just be the summer equivalent of us not getting any real cold or snow until February within any winter and then not getting the full benefits of that snow lying around for any significant time periods due to the Sun being much stronger in February than in December/January as a result of the increasing amounts of available daylight at that time of year.

GFS Op - headline is that for the foreseeable future Atlantic troughs continue to cross Britain with brief intervals of HP between. The troughs are mainly shallow, around 1005mb, and the timing is Tue 16th England, Thu 18th Hebrides, Sun 21st N Britain, Fri 26th Orkney, Tue 30th N England, the last importing a large blob of cold 552dam air. 

GEFS - temps of the various ens members in quite a narrow range for all of Britain, mostly near norm or on the cool side of that. Rain heaviest in the far S around Tue 16th, drier later; for most of the rest of Britain rain on and off at any time though the far N is dry at first

GEM - same general theme as GFS with minor differences in timing and track of LPs

ECM - also similar but with some tendency to keep LP further N from Sun 21st with more of a broad W-ly after that

Thanks for that although we can assume from this that there are still no signs of anything on the horizon which even remotely resembles summer.

It all convinces me to think about getting to the Algarve as much as I can next year 😎

Odd, as this is my forecast from the MetO. What else is it, if not typical summer weather? Plenty of sun, temperatures around normal...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys.jpg 

....at t+384

😟

While I'll hope to see that 26 become a few degrees lower, I suspect the reverse will happen... it looks a bit plumey, with 14C 850s on last night's 18z GFS run. The 0z is trickling out and so far it's continued to raise 850s slightly.

GFS Op - Continuing a similar pattern to yesterday, with LPs running in from the west, though these are now forecast somewhat further north with the far south just about hanging on to HP. The LPs currently predicted are Tue 16th 1005mb N England, Sat 20th 995mb Hebrides, Wed 24th 1000mb Shetland, Mon 29th 985mb Faeroes, all giving a westerly flavour to the weather. The last chart Wed 31st shows pressure dropping SW of Ireland with a possible (???) S-ly plume developing.

ECM - also a W-ly theme but the LP Sat 20th stalls and then the LP Wed 24th appears as a secondary in its trail. After that there is a more definite rise in pressure 1025mb reaching Cornwall Thu 25th.

GFS - similar theme to GFS but the LP next weekend dips further S, to N Ireland, compensatingly that on Wed 24th is a mere bump in the isobars.

GEFS - a long-ish period of temps on the cool side Sun 21st - Mon 29th, just a little warmer before and after. Not much rain in the S after today, more frequent and heavier the further N & W you go.

Today is St Swithin's Day😟

But by midday, the MetO were disagreeing with this and forecasting 25C at least for England by the end of the week

And after tonight/tomorrow the ensemble mean is pretty dry, at last in my area.

Optimism level up a notch today.