Do other weather buffs rarely get the weather they want? I mean it's getting ridiculous for me. So many holidays ruined by weather. Majorca with the kids one year, 20C and rain most of the time. Golf holidays in Portugal with gales and rain. Two weeks of uninterrupted rain in Cornwall in the 70's. The list goes on. Year before last in central Spain in September I broke a two year drought. Supposed to be 21C in Bulgaria last June and was 9C when I arrived. So latest effort is next week:-
How do the models manage to predict bad weather long term with such precision yet fail miserably with good weather short term! I am going to Shetland tomorrow for a week's holiday. All I ask for is for some dry days and not too windy or cold and some bright spells for photography. I started looking as soon as it came into range on GFS two weeks ago. It said it would change from decent recently till tomorrow to windy cold, 40% chance of rain every day and 9-11C. It hasn't changed from that one iota and today it has said it will start to improve Tuesday next week when I return!
Compare that with two weeks ago when I decided at short notice to go to the New Forest for two days as the forecast on the Sunday night for Tuesday/Wednesday was warm, sunny Tuesday and hazy sunshine Wednesday with the risk of a shower. The reality was sunny Tuesday morning then 36 hours solid of rain!
Originally Posted by: fairweather