GFS 0z keeps the heat all the way to the 19th this morning.  

August shaping to be the best sunny month and easily exceed 200 of sunshine hours. Likely near 100 by now.  Far much better than July. 

Away from the northwest Jiries. This is only our 3rd day of prolonged sunshine

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Both GFS and ECM are "breakdown, what breakdown?" this morning. Just when I thought they had firmed up on a deeper trough over the UK next week.

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Ensemble SLPs continue to fluctuate long term. This we’ve gone from widely forecasted means above 1015hPa right to the end of the run (on GEFS 18z and ECM ENS 12z) to 1010-1014 up to late August.

It looks to me like the runs that keep heat going on this current heatwave then also have more unsettled weather long term. If we want a reload later then we’re best off getting the cool air in on Monday/Tuesday.

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WX Summary charts still uncertain about what's to happen in week2. Week 1 continues the present pattern of a hot continent, the heat spreading to cover England, and no significant rain except in the ultra-north plus a smaller amount around Belarus. Week 2 looks more interesting with cooler (but still warm) patches appearing in W Europe including a general cooling of the British Isles; the Baltic hangs on to some heat but N Russia much cooler. Rain now appearing in a new place for the third successive day, now affecting the British Isles with patches to the E all the way across Europe.

Jet streaks to N of Scotland for a few days then no action until about Sat 20th when a S-ly dipping loop rolls across the UK

FAX shows LP near Brittany Sat 13th developing to cover Britain Sun 1th; trough over the S and a secondary centre off SW Ireland

GFS Op shows the current ridge of HP lying E-W across Britain being disrupted by LP from the south, 1010mb SW approaches Sun 14th, then a tussle between these two until the Atlantic steps in, LP covering Britain Sat 20th and centred 995 mb NI. This slowly drifts N-wards as the ridge of HP re-establishes Thu 25th - but not strongly as LP from the Continent is still hanging around and something that looks like an ex-hurricane is in mid-Atlantic

GEFS mean temps dropping steadily to norm over next weekend with significant amounts of rain in many ens members starting up. Mean temp near norm and intermittent rain for the rest of the forecast period but plenty of variation. Some big rain totals in N later on

ECM similar to GFS though the LP at the weekend re-forms to the SW for a time before the Atlantic LP moves in, the latter more slowly than in the GFS model

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Growing support for the heat to continue into next week in parts of the UK. Suggestions that thorms may be more of a risk in the west and north. Anecdotally, that seems to have been a trend in recent times with the south east often missing them or at least the worst of them.

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Growing support for the heat to continue into next week in parts of the UK. Suggestions that thorms may be more of a risk in the west and north. Anecdotally, that seems to have been a trend in recent times with the south east often missing them or at least the worst of them.

Looks like an evolving situation still. T storms are possible for the south mid week onwards

 

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How many 30c days can we get in a row. It looked like 7 or 8 , but this morning we could get 10 or 12. Does look quite stormy next week as well.

 

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Looks like an evolving situation still. T storms are possible for the south mid week onwards

 

Agree. Keeping my fingers crossed that we'll miss them here.

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Liking the trend to keep the low pressure more to the west with warmer air sticking around particularly in the east.
A transition to cold North Easterlies would have been grim as we move into the second half of August.

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No you haven't - unless you mean on top of a mountain (as it can snow at the top of Ben Nevis any time of year).

If you think you have, please prove it! As someone who detests summer and who always looks for cold weather where possible, I'm unaware of anything involving sleet (let alone snow) in lowland England (or Wales) in August. There have been cases of sleet in July and September, but we're talking a hundred+ years ago.

 

Yes I have. You disprove it then? I can't prove what I've seen in August over 50 years ago,

It may have been a 5 minute wonder, I don't remember, but it did snow.

It's a freak weather moment/day etched in that you never forget.

I say 'etched in' as after, I was I always keeping an eye on the weather in the following Augusts, hoping it wouldn't be a trend.

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GFS 0z keeps the heat all the way to the 19th this morning.  

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I wonder if we get another Super Plume? Looks a possibility with low pressure drifting further west.

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Maybe a little bit more of rinse and repeat. Slack pressure, the potential for storms, which will occur in some places before high pressure returns.

As for Snow in August, I've known of an Air Frost in low lying East Anglia. Santon Downham recorded a Min of -1.5C on Aug 1st 1976, yes that year!

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Yes I have. You disprove it then? I can't prove what I've seen in August over 50 years ago,

It may have been a 5 minute wonder, I don't remember, but it did snow.

It's a freak weather moment/day etched in that you never forget.

I say 'etched in' as after, I was I always keeping an eye on the weather in the following Augusts, hoping it wouldn't be a trend.

I assume you must have been up a mountain, or have been lucky enough to experience something not in the records. There’s never been recorded snow in August in lowland England. 

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How many 30c days can we get in a row. It looked like 7 or 8 , but this morning we could get 10 or 12. Does look quite stormy next week as well.

 

i think 8 is the most likely, with Monday being the last one (for now!) GFS operational is pretty much at the high end. 

I’ve also noticed the GFS moderate the 850s somewhat. The mean had crept up to almost 20C but is now back down around 17C at its highest for London.  

All the same there is still a decent chance of 4 35C days in a row, maybe even 5 (unlikely, but would match 1976). That would mean 6 or 7 in one year, which I don’t think has ever happened before?

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So far 06z GFS and ICON both continuing the heat, 00z style.

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I believe there has been some major hail storms in the past, one of these deposited over a foot of hail in Tunbridge Wells in August on 6th August 1956. I have a photo in the History of British weather showing what appeared to be a winter wonderland. The thunderstorms dropped over 40cm of hail in places which some people mistake for snow.

Well if that is snow, then it also snows all over the tropics.  Everywhere. 

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Do you want to argue that point of evidence with the millions of mothers and fathers around the country?

The answer is no! It is not a cliche, it's fact, it's only been (except in the last couple of Augusts (and a few exceptions) that we've had good

weather after August, and for a long time August has nearly always been a washout, until after the first week in September when the kids

have gone back to school the good weather arrives. This has happend too many times to not notice.

I've also known an August or two when we've had snow.

To be fair, that would still be anecdotal, let alone be statistically impossible.  Just saying.

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Agree. Keeping my fingers crossed that we'll miss them here.

   I thought everybody loved a good thunder storm?? 

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