WX temp distribution like yesterday's chart, inverting the current situation i.e. in week 2 a cool-ish plunge from Scandinavia down to Poland with increased warmth on either side and notably hot in Spain and the Caspian. For Britain, very warm in the south though the extra hot weather stays just the other side of the Channel, and even Scotland sees improved temps on this run. Rain mostly east of Germany, even more pronounced in week 2; some also coming back to the northern isles by then.
Jet mainly from a W-ly direction in fits and starts; in the middle of the forecast period a loop forms to the west which promotes the LP off Ireland and the S-ly flow mentioned below before going back W-ly again
GFS Op - current trough covering UK moves away slowly but is out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th as Azores High builds in steadily eventually the 1025mb neatly follows the coasts of Britain by Mon 11th. This is pushed E-wards by LP 1000mb off W Ireland with the prospect of some very warm air from a long way S Wed 13th; the LP then heads off to Iceland and a more normal light but still warm SW-ly affects Britain by Sun 17th.
GEFS - mean temp a little below norm now, rising to a couple of degrees above norm by Mon 11th with good agreement between ens members. Then a lot of disagreement sets in; the mean stays near norm, representing an asymmetric distribution of many ens members near norm, some much above, none much below. Both op and control have their moments at 10+C above norm on different days. Dry (the N has a little rain at first) with a few perhaps thundery spikes late on.
ECM - much like GFS
"Ground covered with snow this morning, having a great deal of snow in the night. This morning was fair but the air very cold" and "Very cold and very damp. Water overflows the ditches all round us ... Land springs about us were scarcely ever known to be so full as at present." Parson Woodforde's Diary, 13th and 17th March 1795, Norfolk
Chichester 12m asl