I've just been watching Gavin P.'s latest 10-14 day forecast video and on one or two of the various models, I am seeing some "if only it were winter" charts appearing to northern blocking and resulting easterly winds coming into play.

Normally, that would be something which we wouldn't want to be seeing at this time of the year due to the likelihood of low pressure sitting underneath that block and right over the UK, although the scenario which is shown shows us to be rather lucky in this instance as a result of the blocking high still being close enough to UK to keep that low pressure away from our shores.

Nevertheless, it's just a shame that we can't ever seem to get that sort of setup in the winter when we are actually looking for that to deliver a lot of cold and snowy weather to this part of the world.

 

 

Wouldn't suit for us all to think the same.

In summer, I just want a bit of certainty, so you can plan BBQ's/get-togethers/days out with an element of likelihood it'll be decent weather (obviously can't guarantee it, but in a prolonged settled spell you hugely improve the odds!)

 

I thought you weren't a fan of the BBQ mentality, Saint!

Hopefully it’s not an outlier. 

It's a big outlier, although one other ensemble goes even hotter. 

 

I'd give it a 20% chance need everything to be perfect like that GFS run.  But Europe is so hot its frightening. 

Just to state never said certain but it’s possible due to the heat close by. 

Excellent ECM as well tonight.  Hot by the end.

I've just been watching Gavin P.'s latest 10-14 day forecast video and on one or two of the various models, I am seeing some "if only it were winter" charts appearing to northern blocking and resulting easterly winds coming into play.

Normally, that would be something which we wouldn't want to be seeing at this time of the year due to the likelihood of low pressure sitting underneath that block and right over the UK, although the scenario which is shown shows us to be rather lucky in this instance as a result of the blocking high still being close enough to UK to keep that low pressure away from our shores.

Nevertheless, it's just a shame that we can't ever seem to get that sort of setup in the winter when we are actually looking for that to deliver a lot of cold and snowy weather to this part of the world.

 

Isn’t it the seasonal weakening of the jet stream which facilitates more blocking?  It’s harder, and therefore more noteworthy, when northern blocking is able to take hold in the winter months, when the jet stream is at its most active.

Anyway, much as I like seasonal warmth and sunshine, I’m conscious of the rainfall deficit across much of the SE. Incursions if low pressure from the south would be welcome, and offer some interest to fans of thundery weather.

 

Isn’t it the seasonal weakening of the jet stream which facilitates more blocking?  It’s harder, and therefore more noteworthy, when northern blocking is able to take hold in the winter months, when the jet stream is at its most active.

Anyway, much as I like seasonal warmth and sunshine, I’m conscious of the rainfall deficit across much of the SE. Incursions if low pressure from the south would be welcome, and offer some interest to fans of thundery weather.

Of course, it's not just the SE which experiencing these rainfall deficits.

That has also been a major issue in parts of SE Scotland as well, including here in Edinburgh where every single month during this year with the exception of February has been substantially drier than average up until now with this month also going that same way.

That is something which I have been pointing out quite a lot in this forum just recently in various threads (I even started a separate thread in order to discuss that very subject and there has been another similar thread since then).

We did get some welcome rain for the gardens today, but it is going to take a lot more than that to get us out of that deficit and if the latest model output is correct, I can't really see that happening any time soon.

I would probably ignore the GFS12z, looks to be a bit of a rogue run and the intense heat is way out in FI so doesn't have much chance of coming off.

Having said that it does look likely that July will be another very dry month, and I would expect temperatures to be at least a little warmer than average, with an outside chance of a record breaking month if the heat is able to build further into the month... 🔥🔥🔥

would never ignore a run, would be foolish. If we get a high to move across which has been hinted at it will be very hot very quickly

 

would never ignore a run, would be foolish. If we get a high to move across which has been hinted at it will be very hot very quickly

Perhaps but the models often over exaggerate things in the longer range then moderate it nearer the time, still I would expect several days comfortably over 30c in July.

 

I'd give it a 20% chance need everything to be perfect like that GFS run.  But Europe is so hot its frightening. 

To me I hope we get this as UK cannot forever avoid the heat and have to get it at some point so hope we get the jackpot and timing is perfect with still long daylight hours as only few minutes less now before it speed up toward August.

 

I thought you weren't a fan of the BBQ mentality, Saint!

You may be confusing me with someone else (there's a couple on here who hate them - or, rather, hate neighbours having barbies). I like 'em !!

Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

 

However, trend is growing for a long dry spell through July....even here in Witney.

Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

 

Insane but a long, long, long way out, and no way will it verify.

However, trend is growing for a long dry spell through July....even here in Witney.

again your comment is ridiculous ‘no way will it verify’ - honestly your posts are so ‘told you do’ it’s unbearable.

the heat in Europe the potential for change in pattern makes it very possible 

A steady burner to something potentially quite special...shades of 95 ? 

Ps. Loving the 0z GFS @378hrs that gives Folkestone 23.5c @ 850Hpa, 30.2c @ 925Hpa in 577 dam air ! 

WX summary back this morning: week 1 warmth still holding on in Scandinavia, cooler on either side especially to the east; week 2 Scandinavian heat collapses and cool weather moves down as far as Belarus while heat pushes up from the south elsewhere, especially to England (close to 20C day-night average but still on the cool side N Scotland) and super-hot for Spain and Urals. Rain well distributed in week 1, concentrated in the cool area as above week 2 with very dry England, France & Germany.

GFS Op - current trough filling but taking its time to move first N and then E into Sweden but by Thu 7th Azores High is in control as it extends to Britain and a definite centre here 1030mb N Ireland Mon 11th. This slowly moves E and allows LP to move up from France Fri 15th

GEFS - for the S mean temp a couple of degrees below norm now, to norm and then above from Fri 8th with op finishing Sat 16th 12C above norm (but hold your horses! the control is below norm and the mean is close to norm). Very dry. Similar temp profile further N without the extremes and wet at first, not quite as dry later as the S

ECM - Similar to GFS but development of Azores high takes place a couple of days earlier