This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during April, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for March should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for April
1981-2010 (30 years) 8.52C
1991-2020 (30 years) 8.95C
2001-2020 (20 years) 9.14C
Last April was exceptionally cold at 6.4C, the coldest since 1986. Generally April has been a warm month in recent years with the CET exceeding 10C 5 times since 2007.
Here is a chart of the April CET for all years since 1961
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
Current model output
GEFS - cold start for the first 4 days but after that the 850 mean is close to average with a slight bias towards above average conditions. Only a handful of runs make it to 20C+ later in the month.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM (de Bilt) shows a cold temperature profile right through to 10 April - of course this is for Holland so probably not as cold here.
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-amj-v1.pdf
There is only a 5% chance of a cool April with a 50% chance of a warm April. So despite a chilly start to the month, the Met Office are not expecting it to stay that way. Precipitation probabilities are close to normal with a slightly increased chance of a wetter than average month. The 3 month summary is very similar to the one month summary.
Edited by moderator
02 June 2022 09:22:46
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Reason: Not specified