As we need something to smile about, it seems, here's pert 13 for midday on Xmas Day (it snows into Boxing Day morning)

Looks decent at 144 but I suspect that mini dartboard low would soon blow any cold air away.

Indeed.

It's an odd looking thing and it would be interesting to see how the model developed it in the following days.

Clutching at possible encouraging signs, the control is very different to the Op.

For example, T+300

Let’s be honest, what we are looking at now model wise will probably drastically change again by the morning. The models have been all over the place in the last 48hrs. Dare to dream!!!

Ah, but dream or nightmare, that is the question.....

But yes, this is proving to be an interesting challenge for the numerical models.

ECM 12z out to T+96 and very similar to the other output. 

ECM 12z t+120 18/12

ECM 12z t+96 19/12

Big subtle differences.

I mused the other day about the NE Atlantic pattern having remained unmoved since July's heatwave. Something kicked in at that point and we just can't seem to break out of it. The pattern today for example is near dead bang similar to that of the 2nd half of July. Of course, it may deflate for a short while but like have seen many times over the last few months, it reinstates itself with remarkable ease after only a short time. 

ECM t+144 18/12 compared to t+120 today. 

UK Met 12z starting to look isolated.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=144&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Oddly enough the WAI (30, 45 and 60 day trackers) has performed extremely well this month, but it could just be beginners luck for them.

GFS appears to be coming  out of this with some credibility - always more for a milder south vs UKMEt/EC...still time for a flip but....

It's far from resolved yet, but if the GFS wins this one out, then it'll just confirm to me even more that ECMWF, while still a fantastic model, is a model that is just a little bit overrated. 

So, not the same GFS that gave us 30 hours of snow across the Midlands from late Xmas Day through Boxing Day in last night's 18z?

Do yo not think that the proven performance stats count for more?

I don't bother with the pub run Gandalf.  Im saying what Ive seen. I hope GFS is beaten by UKMO re the Big Day but its in the ascendancy at present.

The HP seems to shrink and shrink until it's nothing , yet these long range forecasts show strong heights to the NW ..........so what havent they seen 

I'm sure on a 'global scale' yes, but I have noted more than once that the GFS often picks up on broader trends for this small part of the world quicker, or at least more accurately, than the ECMWF does. That said, a big plus the the ECMWF just recently was picking up on that bomb low that crossed right over me a week or so back well in advance and with remarkable precision. 

MOGREPS 12z also seems to favour a cold Christmas day even in the south.

Yes, always seems to happen. Still a few runs to turn it around but if tomorrow mornings ECM is the same, its game over