GEM going like GFS . Very sad

GFS ensembles all poor. We have to hope its got this wrong and UKMO is closer to the mark

UK Met 12z 168 is online:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=850_temperature&chartregion=na&charttag=850hPa%20temp%20C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=uk_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

Bored of trolling the other pages I see. The GFS ensemble data are only out until the morning of the 25th and the GEM is only out to the 24th at time of writing.

Or we could just have a chat about the weather forecasts?

They were out to 120 at the time of posting, and most in agreement with the op

The models are really struggling with this cold spell scenario, as they do more generally with cold spells, but especially so this time, perhaps because of the data shortages - as a result of so few flights. Which means of course that the UKMO model output could be correct, and the GFS and GEM runs turn around - much as they did yesterday. It is not over until the fat lady sings, (not sure how PC that is for these days), but I am not going to throw in any towels until we are T60. The GFS throws a cheeky M4 low to bath it in a narrow strip of snow...

GEM is better than GFS, but still cold rain for us down here

JMA is ok for whats its worth

Nope, plenty of flight data points.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover?facets=undefined&time=2021121906,0,2021121906&obs=aircraft&Flag=all

FWIW, it only noticeably affected things when it went below 125K or even 100K, as used to happen pre-Covid at Christmas. Even that won't be such a problem as it once was, as they're now using extra satellite wind data.

Retron commented a day or two ago that there was plenty of data from aviation, so there is no data shortage at the moment.

But the key point, I think, is that if there's disagreement even at Day 4 & 5 then necessarily everything that follows must be wrong to some extent.  The question is which model is most wrong; the usual answer is that they're all wrong and we end up with a blended solution.

But I have to say I am not encouraged by the trend to build heights from the south. That can only push the track of low pressure systems polewards a little - and a little is all it takes to put most of us the wrong side of the battleground.

Pete Tong we've been expecting you!

In terms of a valuable tool for discerning what the latest MO is for the country as a whole, this thread is as much use as a glass hammer.

I remember the days when it was helpful

On to EC.

More signs of a warming in the stratosphere towards end of the run esp over Siberia. So could this be what we will be looking for from now on to get any decent prolonged cold weather with snow?

To my mind the increased tendency for that to happen has been the biggest change to the UK winter during the last 30 years or so. 

Well he knocked on the day a few runs back but nobody would let him in 

I think we might all need an extra pint for the pub run this evening, if we are allowed to or dare go, that is...

Mind you that is a monster low in the Atlantic  -  and it seems to have kicked Auntie Azores-high into orbit, - the only consolation is that the “Blow torch” southerly that is FI modelled for the New Year, might well reach Svaalbard and pivot another high over Scandinavia - so perhaps Jam tomorrow..

Still plenty to play for but I'd say it's now 80/20 in favour of a fail for the south versus 50/50 last night.

I recall discussions on this point perhaps a decade or more ago.  It's a clear and predicted consequence of 'Voldemort' (that which must not be named...).

Of course a climatic shift doesn't rule out a southerly jet but must make it more difficult and therefore rarer.