I think that’s about right, except I think even Tuesday is too early. Unless there’s a very clear trend one way or the other, ie taking the battleground zone well north or, more likely at this stage, south, the finer details won’t be clear until much closer than that; maybe the Xmas Eve output.

There are a number of high res models and I’ve watched them disagree and chop and change really very close to T+0. Indeed it’s not unusual to see differences with the radar images in real time; that unexpected Sunday snow recently being a good example.

It’s worth noting that in a marginal set up, which this might be for some locations, things like elevation and precipitation intensity come into play. Rain to snow through evaporative cooling is not unknown and is more likely with slow-moving or stalling troughs, which might be the situation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think that’s about right, except I think even Tuesday is too early. Unless there’s a very clear trend one way or the other, ie taking the battleground zone well north or, more likely at this stage, south, the finer details won’t be clear until much closer than that; maybe the Xmas Eve output.

There are a number of high res models and I’ve watched them disagree and chop and change really very close to T+0. Indeed it’s not unusual to see differences with the radar images in real time; that unexpected Sunday snow recently being a good example.

It’s worth noting that in a marginal set up, which this might be for some locations, things like elevation and precipitation intensity come into play. Rain to snow through evaporative cooling is not unknown and is more likely with slow-moving or stalling troughs, which might be the situation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

UKMO run reduces the potential to a frosty cold snap...perhaps the reality will be somewhere between this and the GEM run

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Massive changes so far on GFS!!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Why do you say that when it only goes out to 7 days ?

4 or 5 of which are quite non descript before the uncertainty kicks in??

Looks ok to me ?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The UKMO delays the cold incursion until after Boxing Day for the south, and models the Atlantic to push back in from the SW earlier than before. As I said, the see-saw runs will not verify - but I suspect something in the middle is probably the likely outcome, but my dream would be the snowmaggadon of last nights set of outputs... It still could happen of course.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I think a voucher for plumbing services might be more important, Caz.

😮😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Are we still talking about underwear? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Define South ............Jersey?

Xmas Day 144h

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I notice public forecasters are very unwilling to stick their neck out and say anything about the Christmas period despite being pressed to do so, another measure of how uncertain the situation is, less than a week out.

FWIW the charts this morning show:

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Ignore the rest of this morning's post above (#787) - now the GFS06z is out it's all change! I can't keep up

Originally Posted by: DEW 

GFS06z goes mild in much of the UK a few days after Xmas. Question is whether that cold cluster in the GEFS will melt away faster than English snow.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze