Unusually (in the short term, to Christmas Day) up here at least it seems to have gone the other way on this set.

Now prove me wrong NWP (or actual conditions, whichever come sooner lol)

Thanks for that Neil 

Sorry Marcus. I try to be as neutral as possible and this particular post comes with loads of ‘in my opinion’ but I sense the slow ebbing away of potential which is strange given the stout background signals.

I really hope to be proved wrong and would happily eat my words if, and it’s still possible, corrections back to better heights to the NW occur in the next few runs.

Yes it is looking like this is fading fast for those of us in the south. Still a possibility of transient snow on Boxing Day but then the Iberian high blows up and it's all over.

GEFS mean doesn't look too bad out to 216 hours though. Marginal uptick of snow risk for parts of the south.

Are you thinking this because of GFS ?.............. ECM , UK, GEM and JMA are fairly good and handle it differently to GFS .

Do you see the strength of the block fading allowing the LP to take the upper hand ? 

Just experience - GFS is maligned quite a bit but it’s a decent barometer of trends when comparing the means on matching runs (todays 06 compared to yesterdays for instance). Once it sniffs out a broad scale shift (HLB fading, Iberian high building) it tends to go with it.

Maybe it won’t happen this time and I’ll gladly be proved wrong.

I know where you are coming from.  For up here I've been keeping an eye on the 22nd as thats been the day for some time that the uncertainty starts.  It until the last day or so was the day that the 850s went below zero and signaled the incoming cold.(Glasgow ensembles gfs)  This uncertainty and crossover has now been pushed to the 23rd.  

The potential, especially up here, is still there, but it is definitely being pushed back/warmed up as the small details are factored in.

A long way to go yet and I'm still looking forward to a more seasonal cool spell in general.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

GEFS 06z is looking like a horror show for people in the southern half of the UK hoping for a significant cold spell. Even a relatively short cold snap is now in doubt I think. 

It doesn't look good does it Rob!?

After last nights flip back to cold it appears to have swung mild yet again with the ECM swinging mild in 00z but the GEM 00z still showing cold as is the ICON. However now the 06z has come out it looks like a really messy picture - it just looks cooler...! However, it does bug me to know that the closer we get to the big day the more uncertainty there is - because after last nights 12z and 18z GFS we saw upgrades and thought this was a trend back to cold and now today we are back to square one. I am aware of models flip flopping but I find this frustrating! Will we ever get cross model agreement - even if it showed mild and wet!? 

January looks potentially very dry in the south at least....not chasing any more phantom cold this Christmas....maybe next year..

I know - My dream became reality - 'waking up to mild and wet charts'. Last night in the 18z we looked like we were in for a prolonged cold spell from 25th. This was a flip from what appeared to be going mild but ENS flipped back to cold and now they are back to mild....!

I cannot believe that I had to skim almost 20 pages to catch up!

The exitement of grown men over the chance of a snowflake or two on here is fascinating.  Still. That is how I feel over the chances of temperatures over 30.

Face the facts though.  My odds are increasingly growing whilst yours are increasingly diminishing.  I do so hate the cold 

Have a great Christmas everyone!

So you are discounting all other models .................GFS is correct ?

Given the favourable background signals for cold weather it does make me wonder. However, I'd wait for the 12z updates before worrying too much. However, the 6z update is looking awful for prolonged cold in southern Britain I think.  

I's say the OP is a bit too keen Xmas Day and Boxing day 

A very good cluster running towards New Year ...............deepest FI granted 

I know I wouldn’t trust any run at present to be right, particularly one that goes wrong at 6 hours out!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48970&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Let’s see what later brings 

Martin

Just flicked through the 06Z GFS it's not all doom n gloom but of course we can write off this prolonged cold spell which looked like it was about to materialise in last nights 18z run. Now it looks like it could be a short lived cold snap between boxing day and 28th but that's if this 06z GFS comes about. However, we now see a split between the Operational and Control with the control going colder after 28th and and Operational going milder.

The 00z GEM and UKMO looked good for cold for the south, whilst the ECM looked all over the place but as it's the 00z it's perhaps out of date!?! As for the ICON - I can't see it beyond 120 for the 06z? does it stop there?

What a rollercoaster this is turning out to be! Isn't it!?

Havent spent much time on each run for this very reason. Also other distractions like Covid and political mess so weather doesnt seem as important this time. Past years that GFS 06z would have had me jumping up and down with frustration!

Tell me about it!! - Plans ruined for a 2nd year in a row now!

I blame myself. I told my grandson last night to put a quid on a White Christmas in Birmingham !

GEFS35 which is initiated  24 hours earlier is favouring mild conditions between Jan1 to 21 which is basically as far it goes. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=London