At +96hrs.

We’re not there yet and there is plenty that can still go wrong.

I’m waiting until Monday to call this one as if some of the synoptics being shown pan out then disruption is inevitable. We won’t need a ‘circuit break’ lockdown - Mother Nature will do the job anyway 😉

Much better 18z Control snow hammering Eastern Districts on the 27th

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=204&mode=0&carte=0

First mention of the possibility of some sleet and snow for Christmas Day on the BBC this evening... we are getting closer now - and the Synoptics seems to be improving, with broad model alignment on this (for now), but the pub runs have seemed to favour the colder outcomes so far. We’ll see if the morning sobriety brings a set of model runs and ensembles that feel like a slap in the face with a wet fish, or a gentle caress of a warm sponge. I’m calling it a night with dreams of blizzards and morning headlines - of ‘Who needs a lock-down - when you’ve got a snowy block down‘ or ‘Snowed in for Christmas and Covid safe’ etc...

How much snow do you need to be snowed in. 1979 saw my brother-in-law marooned in the Guildhall in Bury St Edmunds for 3 nights, because he could not get through the 10ft drifts to his wife and kids in Hadleigh. Now that was a memorable snow-storm. Goodnight 

79 was very special I had to walk 10 miles on foot as my bus transport could not see the road from the ditch he gave up,every now and then my leg disappeared, and the wind burn on my face was immense.

Snow risk for lunchtime on Boxing Day:

Where in the model section are these? I can't find them

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Thanks, think they are broken, not showing enough snow risk imby 🤣🤣🤣

 LLTNP 105m asl 

ENS members have shifted colder!

What has happened to the 1981-2010 (30 year mean?) in the ENS graph? It cuts off at day 12.

I did hear that they would use a more recent average?

The model output is beginning to firm up on a fairly decent and prolonged cold spell across the UK. The details as ever are fluctuating run to run.

What could possibly go wrong 

And this is interesting as well at +384!? All in FI range and will change but never seen this sort of warming before - imagine if both warmer than average Stratospheric temperatures on the Russian/Siberian side as well as on the European side infiltrate into the Arctic around the same time?

Last night's 18z GFS gave just under 5cm here - of rain, that is - on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Miserable! Looks to have been an awesome run for snow-lovers away from the far SE though and of course it's changed in today's 0z.... just 2.5cm of rain instead.

The encouraging thing is seeing that there are still big flips going on. The Met Office model this morning, for example, has cold air firmly entrenched across the UK on Christmas Day itself, whereas last night the boundary was hundreds of miles further north.

There'll be plenty more of this to come, of course, but it remains the case that this is a most unusual build-up to Christmas.

EDIT: The Canadian GEM has a dumping of snow in a line just north of the Thames on Christmas Day. Wherever that boundary between the Arctic and milder air ends up (as demarcated by the 0C 850 isotherm this time around) will be in for one heck of a Christmas Day...

Not a bad GEM I suppose!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref

The caveat to this is a hint that the blocking maybe isn’t going to be as robust as we would hope and when energy is allowed to get through at a higher latitude as per latest GFS op you can see what happens longer term.

All semantics though - by tomorrow’s 12Z offerings we’ll be 96hrs to Xmas Eve. If we can get to C.M.A. all well and good, but I have a feeling the story has a way to run yet.

Not so sure about ECM. It seems quite keen to drop the first low well to the south and then bring the Atlantic back in by 192.

However, given we are not even resolved for 120, I will take it with a huge pinch of salt, but we don't want the ECM to have picked up a new trend here.

Modern era flooding could be the headline maker in the coming week....hopefully 

Another WAA early in Jan will cool and settle things down.Think Brian may have made a good call with his winter forecast with February if current patterns presist.January tends to be an autumn month thesedays...

ECM isn't great for the South it has to be said. Fine margins though .

But, the models are in absolute chaos at the moment, so I am not currently in the least bit concerned. It's never easy in this country, but I still feel we are on the cusp of something special, despite this morning's disappointing 0z's.

Yep, the trend is not our friend this morning.  Especially for the South. 

 Still hope though because utter chaos beyond Boxing day. 

Looks pretty good to me this morning ?

I suspect the mood would be completely different if the GFS has thrown up something akin to the 12z and 18z of yesterday ?

Regardless of that the 'unfavourable' GFS still manages to provide some snow here on Boxing Day courtesy of the retreating front and its associated cold undercut and another transitory snow event on the 28th.

The GFS ensembles also have a dominant cluster that go cold. 

Bit of a weird post. It reads as though you like flooding. And WAA in itself is a microscale feature not an episode that sets the trend for a long period.

Now don’t go all sensible on us Steve, although your post will probably get lost in the blizzard of toy-throwers to come. 
The truth is the NWP is as volatile today as it’s been for a week and calls about synoptics a week from now are as hard to make as ever.

lol. Very true Neil.

The all important period 25-26th December is the one to focus on. Those expressing disappointment what will happen after day 8 will sadly be chasing rainbows.

What we can deduce is that there will be a front over the UK. There will be cold air slowly advecting southwards the chances of snowfall are significantly enhanced for a lucky few compared to many many Christmas of the past.

Thats where Im at.  Frankly anyone worth their salt will know that in these slider battleground scenarios (knife edge) that even t72 is pushing it for any kind of certainty.  Its going to be an interesting watch.  Personally Im delighted with the ECM and UKMO out to the edge of sanity at 144 (even though AFAIAC that's 3 days into FI). My expectations for the white stuff here in this set up are pretty minimal, but Im willing as many punters as possible to enjoy some thing truly wintry for once on the Big Day and beyond.

Looks like the ECM op flitted from one of the coldest down here for Christmas to one of the mildest as that low moves in.

The control is a very cold run indeed (and the mean highs for Boxing Day onwards are just 3 or 4C - pretty chilly!)

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202112190000&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London

The way that Christmas Day could be anywhere from 1C to 11C (on this run at least) shows just how much of a knife-edge there is regarding the progression of milder air from the SW.