ECM obviously has this nailed. 

Until then, don’t take all the shenanigans from the NWP too seriously.

By the way, there’s an uptick in sunspot activity (one for you veterans lol).

Yes, we’re past the solar minimum. But roughly where we were around 2009-10 I think?  😉

I like your style. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 

FI starts much sooner than usual

That was after 2 days of snowcover at the beginning of Dec when thundersnow gave us 10cm.

You have to try to give a ramp an air of scientific authority, don’t you?

😉

🤣

In the words of the apocryphal telegram  - off again, on again, gone again, Finnegan

The models can't make up their colllective minds so still a fascinating tease.

WX summary (based on GFS op, AFAIK) shows coldness retreating from W Europe (France no longer under 0C week 2, though Russia remains v cold). Uk looks as if it goes from just below norm week 1 to just above week 2, and pptn moves in from Atlantic to Britain week 2.

BBC Meteo Group was in favour of 'briefly' colder towards Xmas

Jet (from GFS) - looping N around Uk for now, weakening around Xmas Day, resuming as a stream from the W across S Britain ca Thu 30th

GFS op - current Hp at its strongest as before over UK Sat 17th 1040mb, declining to ridge Iceland-Greece Wed 22nd, and failing to hold off influence of Atlantic LP . The LP stands off until near end of run Fri 31st when 990 mb Irish Sea but until then provides prolonged spell of S-lies with any HP as a ridge further E approx Norway - Romania

GEFS - temps bump down to norm ca Tue 21st and the mean then stays near norm but with a wide range in ensemble members, certainly enough to keep interest going. The control is the pick for coldies steady at 8C below norm for the whole of Christmas week while the op is amongst the warmest. Most runs have some pptn during this week. 

ECM - Like GFS to Wed 22nd but the dominant LP is then the one over Finland, with a weak Atlantic, and by Boxing day a well-defined E-ly across all the UK with a secondary LP over S France

GEM - keeps the ridge of HP in place with some cold but not v cold air advecting across UK  by Boxing day

ECM such a flirt.
Like a Swedish beauty winking at you on the dance floor.. before scooting off with the Greek bouncer…

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

signs of improvement?

There is an improvement there. I look to De Bilt for the 'frontline' if you like and a dip in 2m and dp is a good sign. The mean 2m goes sub zero for a few days which is encouraging for coldies here.

The 00Z EC ensembles are OK - the OP is understandably on the lower edge of the pack later on but not an outlier by any means. Some of the set of 50 go lower the the OP for 850s and there is a good cluster around the -6 850 mark from the 24th.

This has a way to run yet - GFS is proven (not literally but over years of experience) to have a westerly component bias and will underestimate the influence of heights to our north and NE where all the shenanigans occur post 144hrs.

And if you'll permit me to muse, I'm not convinced the typhoon in the W Pacific is all that of a problem. It was modeled a week ago and suggestions that it is 'increasing uncertainty' doesn't make much sense as it's taken into account as much as all the other myriad of parameters are. Anyway, I'm looking for 'CMA' at +96hrs. I make that 5 more days to enjoy the rollercoaster ride.

Spot where the uncertainty starts ! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

It's up there with pre-Chrimbo 2005 and 2009 for me! 

At least it's been consistent over the last few days whereas the GFS op and GEM have been volatile.

I'm not sure that anyone even had such a thing as a PC in 1962!

2005 was unforgettable. 

The models latched on to the easterly on the 18th December for onset on Boxing Day evening.

They held firm for a few days but on the 12z's on the 23rd (at T+72) there were major wobbles from virtually all the models with a sinker to Biscay that suddenly turned a bitter easterly into a light WNW'ly. The GFS 18z came back around slightly and by the 0z's on 24th December it was game on.

Elation to deflation back to elation in 15 hours.

Dec 26-30th ended up being a reasonable event locally with 15-20cm widely, less so for many places locally though with meagre falls of circa 5cm. It was just a shame it arrived 24 hours too late.

I think the OP was joking. Not only were there no PCs but there wasn't any Internet, and I think computer modelling was in its very early, experimental stages and not accessible to anyone beyond the developers.

ECM ens IMBY are consistent with yesterday, only change really being the OP is in the colder cluster today, hence why it looks so nice

There's still a lot of scatter so still no closer to being confident of a colder spell, particularly when you look at GFS ens for the same period. ECM ens are though at T2M level still favouring chilly/cold rather than average/mild.

GFS does seem more likely to overplay the Atlantic which may explain why its ens are less in favour of cold IMBY at least, but there's also been plenty of occasions where it handles the Atlantic better than ECM, so as expected still very much a case of more runs needed. Until we get a stronger signal and it's closer to the reliable I'm very much expecting nothing, much easier that way if we do end up more Atlantic dominated with the cold air too far east/north

Re the 2005 affair  - think that was a bit rubbish locally with a couple of CM at best although if I'm remembering correctly wasn't that when Justin got 30cm over in Hastingleigh

ECM out regain it's crown from glory days of 2013

Woke up this morning to see if 1 wetterzentrale.de has unfrozen and 2 if the models are anymore confident about the weather over Christmas 🎄. Yet we still have the same old disagreement with the GFS Op going milder when the control is cold like GEM and the ECM brings us a few bitter cold easterly with possible snow showers spreading in off the n. Sea and English Channel with the -10c isotherm knocking on pur door which could turn out to be an all time classic. ECM 00z following last nights 12z theme. GFS keeps flip flopping so we are still no more confident that this time last week really. 

There's two big forks in the road, aren't there? A few of the runs that take the initial mild path then go on to deliver a great set-up later, too.

Well, one thing that I think is clearer than a week ago is that a mid-Atlantic to Greenland block is off the table and we’re now looking at how the energy going into the southern arm of the jet stream interacts with the upper heights to our north.

This could still go either way for our tiny corner of the planet. A push from the south-west, putting any battleground zone over the north or beyond, or renewed strength in the block deflecting the LPs into France.  As always we need a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, ie everything just right.

6z GFS op going down the slinking in to europe route post T160 or so. It's still chilly at the surface IMBY but movement is all to the south so not going to end well I suspect.

Night and day between GFS and ECM at the moment.  Where's your money?