The Weather Outlook

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western100
16 December 2021 21:25:48

 

Looks about right. 

Bloody easterlies. 😂

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Christmas in Brecon it is 

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

tallyho_83
16 December 2021 21:28:38

 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-mslp

 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-2t

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Added to bookmark - thanks Marcus and you to C. Pea.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Joe Bloggs
16 December 2021 21:36:04

 

Christmas in Brecon it is 

Originally Posted by: western100 

Yes I’ve always fancied a Christmas in Llandrindod Wells. 😂

Anyway plenty of time to nail down the detail of where it might snow (indeed, if anywhere) at this stage. 

In terms of an easterly - remember the post-mortem from the disappointing episode of last winter. The setup needs to be just right. Roll on the 18z. 

western100
16 December 2021 21:41:02

 

Yes I’ve always fancied a Christmas in Llandrindod Wells. 😂

Anyway plenty of time to nail down the detail of where it might snow (indeed, if anywhere) at this stage. 

In terms of an easterly - remember the post-mortem from the disappointing episode of last winter. The setup needs to be just right. Roll on the 18z. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Last winter had some extreme cold modelled at times in late December / January and again for February. Unfortunately never quite happened

January was cold with a decent below CET even with near misses. 

Global patterns will never be as good as they are right now for the UK to get a cold winter. The impact of GW may be the thwart in it. Who knows…December probably isn’t going to finish significantly below average so all over to January to come true. 

At the moment from the 12z the -5 isotherm seems placed somewhere around Central England which always means headaches and messy scenarios for many people 

 

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

jhall
16 December 2021 21:43:35

 

On 17 January 1881,[5] a low pressure system rapidly developed in the English Channel. The snowfalls began on the 17th in the southwest and as the system deepened as it moved through the Channel, a gale force easterly developed over southern parts with heavy blizzards and drifting snow. The blizzard paralysed all transport, communication, trade and industries. Hundreds of miles of rail track were blocked by drifting snow, dozens of feet high in places. Even in central London, there were 3 foot drifts in places. Around 100 people are believed to have died as a result of the blizzard. 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

There's an excellent chapter about this blizzard in one of Philip Eden's books; from memory it was "Great British Weather Disasters". There was also an article about it in "Weather" a few years back. Whilst in SW England the blizzards of March 1891 and February 1978 may have been worse, for SE England and much of the Midlands it was probably the worst blizzard on record. The month had a CET of -1.5C.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Gandalf The White
16 December 2021 21:46:32

 

Yes I’ve always fancied a Christmas in Llandrindod Wells. 😂

Anyway plenty of time to nail down the detail of where it might snow (indeed, if anywhere) at this stage. 

In terms of an easterly - remember the post-mortem from the disappointing episode of last winter. The setup needs to be just right. Roll on the 18z. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes, this time next week.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Joe Bloggs
16 December 2021 21:54:37

 

Yes, this time next week.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

😂😂😂

Yes a lot of uncertainty to come before then. 

Polar Low
16 December 2021 22:02:14

My understanding of the 78 event was that the front caught forecasters out it unexpectedly  stalled over s/w England 

Hence known as the great s/w Blizzard winds turned S/E Gale 9 with driving Snow.

 


 

There's an excellent chapter about this blizzard in one of Philip Eden's books; from memory it was "Great British Weather Disasters". There was also an article about it in "Weather" a few years back. Whilst in SW England the blizzards of March 1891 and February 1978 may have been worse, for SE England and much of the Midlands it was probably the worst blizzard on record. The month had a CET of -1.5C.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Gooner
16 December 2021 22:02:24

Decent Beeb forecast at 21:55 

Like this but the LP to the SW was further South , looked a good chart 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Polar Low
16 December 2021 22:06:50

something we have spoken about before in Ian’s modern winter is the fact modern negative 850,s don’t seem to transfer to the same T2 like they used to.


 

Looks like we got a decent cold snap:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1881&month=Jan&dom=01&var=tmp&region=NA&level=850&hour=00

Nonetheless, people here would still be chuntering about the lack of snow and drip drip drip as the sun gets stronger through January. "If only we'd had this cold snap in December blah blah blah when the days were shorter".

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

ballamar
16 December 2021 22:22:44
Looking like a decent run…
Gooner
16 December 2021 22:23:19

Snow approaching from the SW

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
16 December 2021 22:25:43

UK Battleground 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



glenogle
16 December 2021 22:25:48

Perfect timing!

 

(just about 50 miles further north, please!)

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Bristol airport 190m asl.  5-1 on betfair for white christmas 🎄 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Saint Snow
16 December 2021 22:27:48

 

. The French one, of course, has the words in French. It still works, despite Brexit….. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

I bet it spends too much time pointing to 'Pluie' 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

White Meadows
16 December 2021 22:29:37
LP modelled further north again. I hope this isn’t a developing trend.

Wet and short lived in the south.

Gooner
16 December 2021 22:30:36

Several hours of snow for some if this verifies 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
16 December 2021 22:31:40

LP modelled further north again. I hope this isn’t a developing trend.
Wet and short lived in the south.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Look again 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Joe Bloggs
16 December 2021 22:33:34

It wouldn’t surprise me if Edinburgh and the Lothians strike it lucky again. 

Quite a reliable place for easterly snow over recent winters.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_198_1.png 

 

 

Gooner
16 December 2021 22:34:17

Snow piling into the East 

Shocking trend eh?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



White Meadows
16 December 2021 22:34:52

 

Look again 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Yup, still there. 

Gooner
16 December 2021 22:36:38

 

Yup, still there. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It's white for many not wet , though granted you can get wet playing in the snow 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ballamar
16 December 2021 22:38:16

LP modelled further north again. I hope this isn’t a developing trend.
Wet and short lived in the south.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

think you are wrong on the low

Gooner
16 December 2021 22:39:41

Bitter start to Boxing Day 

Snow showers into the East

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Saint Snow
16 December 2021 22:40:13

Snow piling into the East 

Shocking trend eh?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

I'd already have a few inch of snow lying from the Xmas Eve afternoon/evening fall, followed by a cold night.

I'll be pretty sanguine about the East getting in on the act

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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